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Pattern Octorchber

Don't even get me started out here... All the hype about flooding and endless severe weather. Wow we had a half inch of rain

And 70s this week have become mid to upper 80s which is again way above average like we've been all year. So great /s

Oh but everyone is hyping 2 weeks out again. Yeah whatever

I think at this point I'm gonna believe we have a winter when it actually happens
 
Rain is already exiting the metro ATL area. forecast to exit Monday morning. what a major bust here but it was a beautiful rainfall instead of the severe mess over the summer.
 
Not sure if this is the best thread to post this, but the 12z CFS for the end of October was very interesting IMO with a cut-off low type system which meanders over the central and eastern US maintaining a closed sub-540 thickness core for nearly 8 days. This feature follows multiple small loops before eventually moving east and getting absorbed back into the primary jet stream activity over ME and Eastern Canada. I don't recall seeing systems able to maintain these lower closed-off thickness values for such durations in recent years, and this isn't even the only long-range evidence I have seen of something similar occurring (GFS has hinted here and there with distantly comparable, yet more realistic scenarios).

Not that this concerns our recent or upcoming weather in any meaningful way (too far out), but just thought it was interesting and would share even though this is going to change and is highly improbable in the first place.
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HailCore said:
Not sure if this is the best thread to post this, but the 12z CFS for the end of October was very interesting IMO with a cut-off low type system which meanders over the central and eastern US maintaining a closed sub-540 thickness core for nearly 8 days. This feature follows multiple small loops before eventually moving east and getting absorbed back into the primary jet stream activity over ME and Eastern Canada. I don't recall seeing systems able to maintain these lower closed-off thickness values for such durations in recent years, and this isn't even the only long-range evidence I have seen of something similar occurring (GFS has hinted here and there with distantly comparable, yet more realistic scenarios).

Not that this concerns our recent or upcoming weather in any meaningful way (too far out), but just thought it was interesting and would share even though this is going to change and is highly improbable in the first place.
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I wonder if this could be the year for cold core lows for the southeast? You can get the best intense snowstorm out of them
 
Sunday had a rainy late afternoon and evening, but it was very light. Itā€™s still raining. Total measured only ~0.1ā€, which gets me to a MTD of ~2.2ā€.

Edit 8:48AM Mon 10/5: I got good rains during the last hour.

Edit 7:33 PM: Today (10/5) I received ~0.5ā€, including those good rains between 7:45 and 8:45AM. That puts me at an impressive ~2.7ā€ MTD and matches very well the model consensus based expectation that @SD posted before the rains started on Fri.
 
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GaWx said:
Sunday had a rainy late afternoon and evening, but it was very light. Itā€™s still raining. Total measured only ~0.1ā€, which gets me to a MTD of ~2.2ā€.

Edit 8:48AM Mon 10/5: I got good rains during the last hour
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Tomorrow looks great here. Mid 70's with an east wind gusting to 20. I'm going to go out and just stand in it, and laugh at the high 90's and hope they are gone for a few months.
 
GaWx said:
Sunday had a rainy late afternoon and evening, but it was very light. Itā€™s still raining. Total measured only ~0.1ā€, which gets me to a MTD of ~2.2ā€.

Edit 8:48AM Mon 10/5: I got good rains during the last hour
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I have an aluminum boat, about 12 foot, and sometime in the past year it turned over from leaning against the back of my shed, and it's full of months worth of rain. At least a foot and a half, probably more, so I can attest there has been no drought recently in my yard. Now I have to go bail the thing out, and hope there aren't clouds of mosquitos to attack me.
 
dsaur said:
I have an aluminum boat, about 12 foot, and sometime in the past year it turned over from leaning against the back of my shed, and it's full of months worth of rain. At least a foot and a half, probably more, so I can attest there has been no drought recently in my yard. Now I have to go bail the thing out, and hope there aren't clouds of mosquitos to attack me.
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Did your shed roof drain in it, though? I've only received 2" over the past two months. August was the last normal rainfall.
 
I saw a 39 in OKC on a TV forecast for next weekend but I wanna see how it trends warmer

Every front so far has trended warmer at that range(still 85-90 through Monday at least). Average is in the 70s now

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Tarheel1 said:
Living up to its name up here!
Probably 25-30 degrees above normal Sat/Sun! šŸ˜¢View attachment 198559
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It's really crazy. I told someone last night the only way we're stopping a torch this month for the 10th month in a row is probably freezing temperatures at this point which ain't happening

Really hoping the Pacific helps us out because usually a hurricane going east of us is not good here. It has prolonged heat waves before

And people wonder why I'm not excited about winter. Because we can't get rid of this!
 
Brent said:
It's really crazy. I told someone last night the only way we're stopping a torch this month for the 10th month in a row is probably freezing temperatures at this point which ain't happening

Really hoping the Pacific helps us out because usually a hurricane going east of us is not good here. It has prolonged heat waves before

And people wonder why I'm not excited about winter. Because we can't get rid of this!
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Iā€™m hoping that the hurricane in the gulf and one off of Baja that looks to form, will be the pattern changers that keep fall around permanently! A few of our local Mets are saying the moisture from one or both tropical entities, will funnel moisture this way next week and it will get cold behind all that!! We shall see!
 
Where are we at with the Big AI Modeling / solve all the worlds problems? Being sarcastic and serious at the same time. I know what to expect from the physics models. You find me an AI model that can start consistently nailing down the wx 7 days under and Ill jump on board with the AI hype. If they cant solve the wx, then to me they are just part of the lump sum of all the physics models and all other tech. Been said these would get better with time. So here we are a year + latter.
Love to hear some opions on where things stand. Thanks in advance!
 
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