need to lean on the GFS camp for the weekend
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Pattern Octorchber
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Ron Burgundy
Member
From Glenn’s keyboard to God’s ears…
tennessee storm
Member
Doubt that happens lol
Pretty much all of the indices are pointing towards cooler than average temperatures for east of the Rockies for the first full week of October.
Ron Burgundy
Member
Great write up. Thanks
That's all he does
Ron Burgundy
Member
I know. I had him on ignore but curiosity got the best of me
Most of the strong eps clusters go below normal as early as Friday but more noticeably next Monday. That cluster that tanks highs around the 10th would be delightful
Not very encouraging to have such a strong cluster at .68 for the entire EPS run, pattern seems like it should do better and LOL that this picked up on those 2 members that went crazy as a cluster
Holding out sowing the ole winter grass till this weekend. But if the trend continues downward on the modeling qpf wise, Gonna have to go the old route and fire the ole sprinklers off. Euro Op is concerning
AIFS was quite wet over this way this weekend. Seems like we have a shot to drop a solid front through after the wknd. Boring sunshine till then
Brent
Member
What an incredible stretch showing up once Polo leaves... I mean many years we have still had 90s in October! Are we gonna make up for how horrible the summer was?
Rain is good and we need it, but this QPF map seems quite a bit overdone for the Southeast. The Polo stripe from NM to IA makes sense, and the heavy rain in east TX/OK seems reasonable with the setup, but east of there for us in the Southeast...man I don't know it looks very generous. Tend to think we end up with half of this. We'll see.
NBAcentel
Member
You can bank on this happening at the very least. El Niño springs suck 
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
Good, bring it. I'll take cool anytime we can get it!
dsaur
Member
I don't know. The spiders down here are crazy. I just cleared out some webs that were catching my head when I went by and limbs 20 feet away, on the other side of the drive were moving. A stick hanging down over the drive was still there after I drove thru it tangling it on the windshield. Got back from my errand and it's hanging there, and I swear I heard spiders laughing at me. I'm expecting some odd cold in patches this winter, with chances of frozen in the dips between warm and cold spells. That is if the spiders don't Frodo me.
The first couple of days in October will live up to the title of this thread. With forecasted highs in the lower nineties, this will be the first 90 degree weather in October that RDU has seen since 2019. I'm looking forward to the cooler temperatures behind the cold front that will sweep through this weekend.
Brent
Member
It's about to feel like we're on the Gulf coast I guess
Sleetisfunbutsnowisgood
Member
Send some rain our way Brent. We been dry as of late
Where is Paris? I'm only aware of the one, and I get the feeling you're not across the pond.
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
You’ve never heard of Paris, KY, Paris, TN, or Paris, TX ?
I have not, without looking it up in Google Maps.
How did you hear about them?
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
I’ve been to both Paris, KY and Paris, TN !I have not, without looking it up in Google Maps.
How did you hear about them?
Little bit of robot models vs the traditional models with the upcoming rain
Dang, I’ve only been to the one.
AJ1013
Member
Next two weeks look awful here. At least I’m traveling this weekend.
Brent
Member
The dry slot over Arkansas and Tennessee is really crazy because it picks back up over in Alabama
The Arkansas mets are like it may not even rain at all while people are talking about flooding and severe weather here. I don't think I've ever seen such a difference. Usually Arkansas gets more rain than us haha
JP152
Member
There's one in Virginia too .lol
Let’s will it into existence
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
I don’t ever recall seeing this much rain in October unless it was the result of a tropical system. October is our driest month.
NoSnowATL
Member
Looks good to me
We need it if we are going to have a decent leaf season. I've seen some distressed maples lately.
aturner1979
Member
It feels like this upcoming pattern is the first real shot from El Nino this year.
Rain went poof on the Euro for the 85 crew
Brent
Member
Starting to look like a glorified squall line we get a few times a year even out here
Not really sure all this hype is gonna pan out locally
Models are way too hyped up a few days out again
Not really sure all this hype is gonna pan out locally
Models are way too hyped up a few days out again
NoSnowATL
Member
Clown rain totals map
Official fcst likes rain 
Brent
Member
All over the place to the last minute here. Some people will probably get basically nothing after endless hype. Even on this side of the state where we usually do better you don't have to go far and this is with a former hurricane involved! It's just crazy to me. There were weather apps talking about flooding for 2 days straight... This is also coming after by far the hottest September on record here by a long shot 