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Pattern Sweatember

Theme hasnt changed on overnight models. Looks like we get warm mid week into Saturday. Front comes through Next Sunday into Monday. Back to awesome Fall weather after it exits. Front looks like it should put out some beneficial rain for everyone aka the traditional way and not the pulse type way we have expierenced over the summer months. Ill be sowing the winter rye grass next Saturday if this holds. Perfect timing
 
Yeah I'm gonna say someone gets way more than 4 inches with moisture from the twin major hurricanes in the Pacific

I'm quite concerned about flooding to say the least. Like I said our droughts always seem to end in flood. There's already rain around this morning even 7 (4).png
 
Even with the somewhat cooler air here(yesterday was the first day we didn't hit 80 in 4 months) we are still running over 10 degrees above normal this month. Probably no stopping hottest September on record because the mornings are gonna be really warm this week with Polo near us

Really gonna pump in warm air with that track til it goes away unfortunately

17E_tracks_latest.png
 
Brent said:
Even with the somewhat cooler air here(yesterday was the first day we didn't hit 80 in 4 months) we are still running over 10 degrees above normal this month. Probably no stopping hottest September on record because the mornings are gonna be really warm this week with Polo near us

Really gonna pump in warm air with that track til it goes away unfortunately

View attachment 198304
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I just took a look at this. What Brent has been experiencing in Tulsa this month is nothing short of extraordinary. Based on current projections, he will have experienced a Sept warmer than any other on record (~120 years worth) by ~2 F and warmer than their avg July!!
 
GaWx said:
I just took a look at this. What Brent has been experiencing in Tulsa this month is nothing short of extraordinary. Based on current projections, he will have experienced a Sept warmer than any other on record (~120 years worth) by ~2 F and warmer than their avg July!!
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I know we were only 1 short on 100s in September and that was 1939... And yeah it's been crazy all year for the most part

But the flip is kind of interesting already. This is the second morning in a row with storms around and Polo is still hundreds of miles offshore 🤔
 
Got into the 30s on my tempest. We moved a few weeks ago and think are situated in a low point where temps bottom out. Curious to see if this microclimate changes from Brevard at 2100
Feet or house build at 3100
Feet
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Brent said:
I know we were only 1 short on 100s in September and that was 1939... And yeah it's been crazy all year for the most part

But the flip is kind of interesting already. This is the second morning in a row with storms around and Polo is still hundreds of miles offshore 🤔
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Yeah, that Southern Plains ridge has been relentless.
Mother Nature wants to achieve an equilibrium. So here's hoping you and we freeze in the coming months to achieve equilibrium. :cool:
 
Brent said:
This thing is gonna produce a lot of rain somewhere View attachment 198315

This is a crazy signal for 4 days out
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Two maximas have been showing up for a few days!! Gonna be just fun to watch unfold , from a meteorological standpoint!
I think Des Moines is about 5” away from the wettest month ever recorded!
 
Sky86 said:
I wonder how much snow it will produce in the Colorado Rockies?
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None in most of the mountain areas due to the warmth it is bringing from the Pacific. Instead there are major flooding concerns through much of CO. If there’s any snow, the forecasts only have a pretty short period possible only in some areas way up at 11-12K+ feet, where up to 3-6” would be possible mainly in the S portion.

Snow levels have risen way higher than models like the GFS had been showing for late this week. Their clown maps on some runs had significant accumulations throughout portions of the state. The NWS was even showing rain/snow mix later this week as low as ~7-8K ft. Forget about that now.
 
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GaWx said:
None in most of the mountain areas due to the warmth it is bringing from the Pacific. Instead there are major flooding concerns through much of CO. If there’s any snow, the forecasts only have a pretty short period possible only in some areas way up at 11-12K+ feet, where up to 3-6” would be possible mainly in the S portion.

Snow levels have risen way higher than models like the GFS had been showing for late this week. Their clown maps on some runs had significant accumulations throughout portions of the state. The NWS was even showing rain/snow mix later this week as low as ~7-8K ft. Forget about that now.
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Yeah I'm trying to remember if I've even seen a storm like this in the Plains before. I mean there was Patricia in Texas in 2015 which was bad down there but it didn't really affect up here and especially towards Colorado certainly. I think this setup is pretty much unprecedented in the last 30 years anyway

It's not just Polo it's also the front itself coming down that it joins up with that's why there's two different areas with flooding concerns. Colorado actually gets the original circulation
 
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