• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical 2026 Tropics Thread 🌀

lexxnchloe said:
No longer on its own. Euro beginning to get onboard


View attachment 197995
Click to expand...
Long way out obviously, but that’s 1040mb HP over New England. Couple that with any low coming up the coast along with the astronomical high tides of the harvest full moon and it you’re talking major coastal flooding and erosion along with high winds from the pressure gradient
 
Chazwin said:
Long way out obviously, but that’s 1040mb HP over New England. Couple that with any low coming up the coast along with the astronomical high tides of the harvest full moon and it you’re talking major coastal flooding and erosion along with high winds from the pressure gradient
Click to expand...
That is the classic JB pattern.
 
I wouldn't sleep on these late month systems. Ops are a lot more bullish about getting the "mjo" into a more favorable location than the smoothed means. The individual members have a lot of random activity after d10. That euro Joaquin redo has a little bit of support
 
SD said:
I wouldn't sleep on these late month systems. Ops are a lot more bullish about getting the "mjo" into a more favorable location than the smoothed means. The individual members have a lot of random activity after d10. That euro Joaquin redo has a little bit of support
Click to expand...
Another thing to keep in mind is if you look back at past El Niños. If you get an active period with tropical activity, it often is late season storms doing it. Ida in 2009 became a hybrid storm but gave significant impact up and down the east coast on November 2009 and Joaquin in October 2015 combined with an upper low to produce major flooding in the eastern Carolinas
 
Chazwin said:
Another thing to keep in mind is if you look back at past El Niños. If you get an active period with tropical activity, it often is late season storms doing it. Ida in 2009 became a hybrid storm but gave significant impact up and down the east coast on November 2009 and Joaquin in October 2015 combined with an upper low to produce major flooding in the eastern Carolinas
Click to expand...

Some other notable hybrid autumn storms during strong El Niños:

-1991: The “Perfect Storm”, an unnamed cat 1 hurricane in late Oct was originally extratropical but it transitioned after absorbing Hurricane Grace.

-1982: I posted about this earlier this week. There was a strong low that formed in late Oct near 30N, 75W that then moved N to Hatteras and combined with a cold Canadian high in the NE to produce a big cold mess within a few hundred miles of the E coast.
 
GaWx said:
Some other notable hybrid autumn storms during strong El Niños:

-1991: The “Perfect Storm”, an unnamed cat 1 hurricane in late Oct was originally extratropical but it transitioned after absorbing Hurricane Grace.

-1982: I posted about this earlier this week. There was a strong low that formed in late Oct near 30N, 75W that then moved N to Hatteras and combined with a cold Canadian high in the NE to produce a big cold mess within a few hundred miles of the E coast.
Click to expand...
One of the waves of low pressure that helped to form the Perfect Storm in 1991 produced a major early season winter storm in the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Minneapolis had over 20” of snowfall from that storm
 
Shaggy said:
Gfs is not giving up but still all alone
Click to expand...
18z GFS does a NC coast stall and drifts it inland. That’s just the latest track presented.

This model is stubbornly determined to LF this thing in the Carolinas, somehow. Someway. It’s presented different tracks to getting there, but it always seems to find a way. And it doesn’t care about the other models at all.
 
YetAnotherRDUGuy said:
18z GFS does a NC coast stall and drifts it inland. That’s just the latest track presented.

This model is stubbornly determined to LF this thing in the Carolinas, somehow. Someway. It’s presented different tracks to getting there, but it always seems to find a way. And it doesn’t care about the other models at all.
Click to expand...

GFS now says nvm jk. lol
 
I think this is the 5th UKMET run in a row and 7th overall with a Medi-TC!

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 34.1N 18.4E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.09.2026 36 34.1N 18.4E 1010 32
1200UTC 15.09.2026 48 34.5N 20.8E 1004 41
0000UTC 16.09.2026 60 34.3N 22.6E 1006 39
1200UTC 16.09.2026 72 34.5N 24.9E 1006 30
0000UTC 17.09.2026 84 36.3N 27.9E 1007 29
1200UTC 17.09.2026 96 CEASED TRACKING
 
Shaggy said:
Gfs was persistent for a day or 2 but is clearly now just out to lunch on any type of TC genesis in the extended range
Click to expand...

Yeah I never fall for the GFS when it's alone tbh

Too many fakes over the years

I mean it's always possible something develops but like the odds are heavily against it without other support
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top