Tropical 2026 Tropics Thread 🌀

[lexxnchloe]

A bit of rain for SE GA

 

[NWMSGuy]

 

[NWMSGuy]

Y’all folks over in the Carolina’s want some rain? GFS isn’t letting this go “yet”:

 

[Shaggy]

Y’all folks over in the Carolina’s want some rain? GFS isn’t letting this go “yet”:
View attachment 197984

Fantasy land for sure but it has been persistently by itself in this but like you said it's been persistent

 

[lexxnchloe]

Y’all folks over in the Carolina’s want some rain? GFS isn’t letting this go “yet”:
View attachment 197984

Euro needs to agree.

 

[NoSnowATL]

Y’all folks over in the Carolina’s want some rain? GFS isn’t letting this go “yet”:
View attachment 197984

Went from Texas to NC in like 3 runs. At least we have clown maps again.

 

[NWMSGuy]

 

[NCSNOW]

12zGFS Op run originates this cane that hits Florida, then NC in the Caribbean about a week out from today. Good luck with that

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Maximum damage hurricane. Couldn’t draw it up any better..er worse

 

[NCSNOW]

Maximum damage hurricane. Couldn’t draw it up any better..er worse

Its happened for the worse. The benchmark in NC is ole Hazel. Forward speed in the 940's mb at landfall. late season October deal.

 

[YetAnotherRDUGuy]

Verbatim, that’s a lot of land interaction with Cuba/FL.

 

[Downeastnc]

Maximum damage hurricane. Couldn’t draw it up any better..er worseView attachment 197990

Wind map was meh except for south Florida and coastal and eastern NC...

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

It's pretty crazy that the GFS won't let go on this CAG idea. GEFS has shown interest too and even ramped it up on this run.

For now since it seems on its own, I'd give it a 20% chance something happens at most.

 

[lexxnchloe]

It's pretty crazy that the GFS won't let go on this CAG idea. GEFS has shown interest too and even ramped it up on this run.

For now since it seems on its own, I'd give it a 20% chance something happens at most.

No longer on its own. Euro beginning to get onboard

 

[Chazwin]

No longer on its own. Euro beginning to get onboard


View attachment 197995

Long way out obviously, but that’s 1040mb HP over New England. Couple that with any low coming up the coast along with the astronomical high tides of the harvest full moon and it you’re talking major coastal flooding and erosion along with high winds from the pressure gradient

 

[lexxnchloe]

Long way out obviously, but that’s 1040mb HP over New England. Couple that with any low coming up the coast along with the astronomical high tides of the harvest full moon and it you’re talking major coastal flooding and erosion along with high winds from the pressure gradient

That is the classic JB pattern.

 

[SD]

I wouldn't sleep on these late month systems. Ops are a lot more bullish about getting the "mjo" into a more favorable location than the smoothed means. The individual members have a lot of random activity after d10. That euro Joaquin redo has a little bit of support

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[Chazwin]

I wouldn't sleep on these late month systems. Ops are a lot more bullish about getting the "mjo" into a more favorable location than the smoothed means. The individual members have a lot of random activity after d10. That euro Joaquin redo has a little bit of support

Another thing to keep in mind is if you look back at past El Niños. If you get an active period with tropical activity, it often is late season storms doing it. Ida in 2009 became a hybrid storm but gave significant impact up and down the east coast on November 2009 and Joaquin in October 2015 combined with an upper low to produce major flooding in the eastern Carolinas

 

[GaWx]

Another thing to keep in mind is if you look back at past El Niños. If you get an active period with tropical activity, it often is late season storms doing it. Ida in 2009 became a hybrid storm but gave significant impact up and down the east coast on November 2009 and Joaquin in October 2015 combined with an upper low to produce major flooding in the eastern Carolinas

Some other notable hybrid autumn storms during strong El Niños:

-1991: The “Perfect Storm”, an unnamed cat 1 hurricane in late Oct was originally extratropical but it transitioned after absorbing Hurricane Grace.

-1982: I posted about this earlier this week. There was a strong low that formed in late Oct near 30N, 75W that then moved N to Hatteras and combined with a cold Canadian high in the NE to produce a big cold mess within a few hundred miles of the E coast.

 

[Shaggy]

After 6-7 consecutive runs with a system the gfs has finally backed off the last 2 runs. 06z is still running but no development through 246 hours

 

[lexxnchloe]

After 6-7 consecutive runs with a system the gfs has finally backed off the last 2 runs. 06z is still running but no development through 246 hours

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[GaWx]

 

[GaWx]

 

[Chazwin]

Some other notable hybrid autumn storms during strong El Niños:

-1991: The “Perfect Storm”, an unnamed cat 1 hurricane in late Oct was originally extratropical but it transitioned after absorbing Hurricane Grace.

-1982: I posted about this earlier this week. There was a strong low that formed in late Oct near 30N, 75W that then moved N to Hatteras and combined with a cold Canadian high in the NE to produce a big cold mess within a few hundred miles of the E coast.

One of the waves of low pressure that helped to form the Perfect Storm in 1991 produced a major early season winter storm in the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Minneapolis had over 20” of snowfall from that storm

 

[Shaggy]

Gfs is really only 5 days away from development on the 18z although it's weak and not really showing much space for through the run

 

[ChrisAMB]

Gfs is really only 5 days away from development on the 18z although it's weak and not really showing much space for through the run

Some of those earlier runs would bankrupt multiple property insurance companies if the track from Miami through Wilmington into the NE were reality.

 

[Brent]

Super El Nino doing work

As of 8 am EDT this morning (Sep. 11), we officially passed the satellite-era (1966-present) record for the latest formation of the first hurricane during an Atlantic hurricane season, held by Hurricanes Gustav (2002) and Humberto (2013).

 

[Downeastnc]

18Z GFS wind clown maps...
That track is nightmare fuel for sound/river surge in eastern NC...

 

[Shaggy]

Gfs is not giving up but still all alone

 

[YetAnotherRDUGuy]

Gfs is not giving up but still all alone

18z GFS does a NC coast stall and drifts it inland. That’s just the latest track presented.

This model is stubbornly determined to LF this thing in the Carolinas, somehow. Someway. It’s presented different tracks to getting there, but it always seems to find a way. And it doesn’t care about the other models at all.

 

[GaWx]

Ignorance is suggested in this on several levels although I suspect some trolling is occurring. Yes, believe it or not, these are real posts!

 

[NoSnowATL]

Ignorance is suggested in this on several levels although I suspect some trolling is occurring. Yes, believe it or not, these are real posts!

View attachment 198041

Anti climate policies…. Haha

 

[YetAnotherRDUGuy]

18z GFS does a NC coast stall and drifts it inland. That’s just the latest track presented.

This model is stubbornly determined to LF this thing in the Carolinas, somehow. Someway. It’s presented different tracks to getting there, but it always seems to find a way. And it doesn’t care about the other models at all.

GFS now says nvm jk. lol

 

[GaWx]

I think this is the 5th UKMET run in a row and 7th overall with a Medi-TC!

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 34.1N 18.4E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.09.2026 36 34.1N 18.4E 1010 32
1200UTC 15.09.2026 48 34.5N 20.8E 1004 41
0000UTC 16.09.2026 60 34.3N 22.6E 1006 39
1200UTC 16.09.2026 72 34.5N 24.9E 1006 30
0000UTC 17.09.2026 84 36.3N 27.9E 1007 29
1200UTC 17.09.2026 96 CEASED TRACKING

 

[Shaggy]

Gfs was persistent for a day or 2 but is clearly now just out to lunch on any type of TC genesis in the extended range

 

[Brent]

Gfs was persistent for a day or 2 but is clearly now just out to lunch on any type of TC genesis in the extended range

Yeah I never fall for the GFS when it's alone tbh

Too many fakes over the years

I mean it's always possible something develops but like the odds are heavily against it without other support