• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry Winter 26-27

Bham 99 said:
Considering we have had a blizzard on the Gulf Coast and a foot of snow in many areas of North Carolina in the past 2 years I doubt we're owed anything for this year.
Click to expand...
Begrudgingly agree. And that’s from someone not in that foot of snow. Had it to the west and east of me though. That was fun!
 
RBR71 said:
So did I! Let's go
Click to expand...
I see solid black wolly worms every year and we see how that has worked out. About as good as if the oak trees have big amounts of acorns its gonna be bad winter. We had multiple years of acorns and no wintry weather. This year acorns are loaded again
 
Bham 99 said:
Considering we have had a blizzard on the Gulf Coast and a foot of snow in many areas of North Carolina in the past 2 years I doubt we're owed anything for this year.
Click to expand...
I don't know man, since winter of 18-19 I've had 24.1 inches of snow. I'd say the snow drought is massive along 85 in the upstate. That's only 3 inch per year average. I don't know what my particular town averages but GSP is 4.7 inches and Tigerville is 5.9 inches. I'm more similar to Tigerville. Only getting about a little over half of average snowfall. Not like it was ever a snowy climate but to cut those already small amounts in half hurts. We truly do suck and I seriously doubt it reverses in my lifetime. I'll have to move North if I ever want to experience a double digit season again it seems.
 
POWERSTROKE said:
I see solid black wolly worms every year and we see how that has worked out. About as good as if the oak trees have big amounts of acorns its gonna be bad winter. We had multiple years of acorns and no wintry weather. This year acorns are loaded again
Click to expand...
5772.gif
 
NBAcentel said:
I’d be fine with nothing this year. I’m still satisfied from the foot of snow last winter. Now if there’s one thing that’s severely overdue it’s a significant ice event. Keep getting away with them
Click to expand...
Bookmarking for when that foot-plus band of snow moves through Atlanta this January. :)
 
Since I see a lot of 1997-1998 El Nino comparisons, I asked the robots to reconstruct the winter weather events in my area for that winter (I did not live here at that time.)


It seems like the takeaway/maybe what a lot of us could expect this forthcoming winter are possibly a lot of opportunities that could lead to near misses, or overwhelming joy. This same storm below dropped 20" on Jamestown TN which is ~100 miles to the North of me. If the surface low had tracked 100 miles further south, we would have been on the cold side of the storm and probably scored big.

So I foresee a lot of weeping and gnashing of teeth this winter, all the ingredients can be there but a tiny shift one way or another can really make a difference for us marginal climo folks. But who knows? This Nino is allegedly a 1 of 1 so we will see. Hope springs eternal.


1788700698806.png
 
NWMSGuy said:
Click to expand...

What AI has to say about this over central NC and more specifically the Triangle.....

The Verdict for Piedmont NC

Your chances of seeing at least one major winter weather event are higher than normal because of the raw storminess driven by El Niño. However, your chances of a prolonged, consistently snowy winter are stifled by the -PDO. Expect a highly volatile winter where you will likely be tracking agonizingly close boundaries between 38°F bone-chilling rain and a major winter mess.

For The Triangle (Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill), the setup of a Super El Niño clashing with a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (-PDO) creates a textbook "boom-or-bust" winter for snow chances.

Historically, this specific clash means your chances for a single, major, high-impact snow or ice storm are significantly higher than normal, but your chances of seeing frequent, consistent snow flurries or cold winter days are actually lower than normal.

​
The Clashing Physics Over the Triangle

The 30-year average winter snowfall for the Triangle is 7.9 inches. However, a Super El Niño combined with a -PDO creates two highly conflicting trends that usually pull that average apart into extremes:

1. Why the "Boom" Potential is High (Super El Niño)

A Super El Niño aggressively fires up the Southern subtropical jet stream. This guarantees that the Southeast will be locked into a wetter-than-normal weather pattern with an influx of coastal low-pressure systems. For the Triangle, this means the raw "fuel" for a winter storm—copious moisture tracking up from the Gulf of Mexico or along the coast—will be readily available all winter. When a brief blast of cold air manages to slip down, it can easily trigger a massive "home run" snow or ice storm.

2. Why the "Bust" Potential is High (-PDO)

A negative PDO is the snow lover’s worst enemy in North Carolina. It tends to favor a strong Southeast Ridge—a warm high-pressure system sitting right off the Atlantic coast. This ridge acts like a leaf blower, pushing warm, subtropical air straight up into central North Carolina. Since 2019, a persistent -PDO has been the main driver behind the region's recent snow droughts, turning potential snowstorms into chilly, raw, 38°F rainstorms.

​
The Analog Blueprint: How Past Winters Played Out

Meteorologists track past "analog years" that shared this similar climate profile to see how it resolves in central North Carolina:

  • The 1982–1983 Winter (The Boom): This was a massive Super El Niño. The Triangle was slammed by intense moisture, and because cold air occasionally aligned perfectly, it resulted in a highly snowy, active winter.
  • The 2015–2016 Winter (The Icy Bust): Another historically strong Super El Niño. The Triangle experienced incredible moisture, ranking as one of the top 10 wettest winters on record for the state. However, the warm -PDO signal dominated the overall temperature pattern. While the season was mostly mild and rainy, it did produce a high-impact, crippling ice and sleet storm rather than clean, powdery snow.
What to Expect This Winter

Instead of a normal winter, expect a highly volatile, gray, and wet season. You will likely spend the winter watching local meteorologists track the "rain-snow line" down to a matter of a few miles across Wake, Durham, and Orange counties. If the El Niño moisture wins out during a transient cold snap, the Triangle will see a major winter event. If the -PDO ridge holds its ground, expect historic amounts of cold rain.
 
NWMSGuy said:
Latest from Ben Noll. Not the best look for the Mid-South but a great look for others here in the southeast:
View attachment 197900
Click to expand...

That signal in the northern Caribbean is odd. A wet winter in Cuba screams either fronts clearing Florida with a squall line into Cuba (not an often occurrence) or Gulf of Mexico lows dragging a front through on their way to Bermuda.
 
256wx said:
Since I see a lot of 1997-1998 El Nino comparisons, I asked the robots to reconstruct the winter weather events in my area for that winter (I did not live here at that time.)


It seems like the takeaway/maybe what a lot of us could expect this forthcoming winter are possibly a lot of opportunities that could lead to near misses, or overwhelming joy. This same storm below dropped 20" on Jamestown TN which is ~100 miles to the North of me. If the surface low had tracked 100 miles further south, we would have been on the cold side of the storm and probably scored big.

So I foresee a lot of weeping and gnashing of teeth this winter, all the ingredients can be there but a tiny shift one way or another can really make a difference for us marginal climo folks. But who knows? This Nino is allegedly a 1 of 1 so we will see. Hope springs eternal.


View attachment 197896
Click to expand...
This Nino will
Surpass the 97. 98 event. . But could
Be the only thing we can go by. 97. 98
 
We all know models usually are incorrect especially with current weather patterns. Question I have is this; with the pacific active with hurricanes this year, should we expect more drastic changes to the current forecast for fall and winter? Hurricanes are weather changers and Hawaii got a big one moving almost directly north. Sounds like a forecast disruptor to me.
 
@CaryWx good post. A lot of this was talked about in here a few weeks ago. This year with the set up we are facing. The PDO is probably the biggest signal we need to be watching. I have always been give me a posotive pna over any other telleconnection/ if I only get to choose just 1. And Gawx and others have shown it should be numero uno for SE winter wx folks.
But this year imo the PDO is crucial due to the strong el nino state. Cant have NA, espeacilly Canada getting bombarded with pacific air mass for 90 straight days.
 
I dont mind seeing the Atlantic red and yellow. Helps with Blocking. But we need to get the red blob in the north pacific to disappear by Turkey day imo.

1788783941669.jpeg
 
NCSNOW said:
I dont mind seeing the Atlantic red and yellow. Helps with Blocking. But we need to get the red blob in the north pacific to disappear by Turkey day imo.
Click to expand...
NCSNOW won't current Hurricanes Lowell and Marie help disrupt that red blob? I would think Lowell will definitely affect that area.
 
Wulfer said:
NCSNOW won't current Hurricanes Lowell and Marie help disrupt that red blob? I would think Lowell will definitely affect that area.
Click to expand...
If they can churn up the water / upwhelling up there. But remember hurricanes are natures way of transporting heat out of the tropics and dispossing it up north. So who knows. Lots upwhelling is best way to cool things off
 
NCSNOW said:
If they can churn up the water / upwhelling up there. But remember hurricanes are natures way of transporting heat out of the tropics and dispossing it up north. So who knows. Lots upwhelling is best way to cool things off
Click to expand...
Another thing to help with that would be to start seeing western Pacific typhoons start recurving. Not too many of them have this year
 
Here’s the preliminary winter outlook from pro met. Chris Martz:

here is my preliminary thinking. . . As y'all probably know by now because of the endless hysteria in the news cycle, we are in an El Niño, which is just the warm phase of the larger El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This year, the developing El Niño is unusually intense, and it is expected to officially be a “very strong” El Niño by early winter at the latest. This is marked by very warm sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

The news media and the United Nations have spun this as some sort of crazy event that will “turbocharge” extreme weather all over the globe, but that's not really how it works. Now, normally in the tropical Pacific Ocean, easterly wind stress associated with the Walker Circulation imparted on the sea surface acts to pile warm water near the surface in the western half of the basin; that is, closer to Asia. This pushes the thermocline down towards the west as warm water pools up north of the Maritime Continent and east of the Philippines. But during El Niño, the easterlies weaken or temporarily reverse (westerly wind bursts), which causes that pool of warm water to slosh back east. That's what's happening right now.


There are a lot of meteorological factors to consider when it comes to predicting long-range temperatures, precipitation, and storm tracks. But this year, this “very strong” El Niño will play a dominant role I think as it has in years past (e.g., 1982–83, 1997–98, and 2015–16). Those are my top post-1950 analogs, and I added 1972–73 into the mix as it behaved similarly to the others, although it was only a “strong” El Niño at peak intensity. 1827–28 and 1877–78 would have been good analogs too, but we don't have enough climate data from back then to work with.


A key feature of “very strong” El Niño events is that wintertime temperatures are particularly mild relative to average. This is pronounced in the Upper Plains / Midwest and Great Lakes / Northeast. Temperatures across the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region, however, typically run below average. The southeast can swing either way, but generally winds up near “average” (and I use scare quotes there because the weather is rarely “average”).


However, these exceptionally mild temperatures do not necessarily persist all winter. In fact, most of this composite is due to “blowtorch” Decembers. And I do expect December to end up 5–10°F above average in the areas you see orange and red contours in the first analog composite map I made below.But the roaring Pacific Jet typically relaxes from mid-January through mid-February, so temperatures will tumble a bit closer to “seasonable.” If this El Niño were weaker, there'd be a good chance of a frigid December in the east. But I doubt that's going to happen.


As far as precipitation goes, well, there should be an active subtropical jet stream. So, air parcels moving from west-to-east will tap into Gulf moisture and then be advected northward into the southeast. I expect a lot of rain in the Gulf Coast states (Texas to Florida) and then northward up the east coast into the DMV. Similarly, the western U.S. should expect some major drought relief due to atmospheric river events. After a near-record low snowpack last winter, the ski resorts will be back in business. Elsewhere, it will likely be a bit drier than normal due to persistent high-pressure ridging over the northern flank of the country. Storm tracks are going to favor the southern states.


With respect to snowfall, overall, I do expect less of it nationwide outside of high elevation areas simply due to higher-than-average temperatures. But I cannot rule out ONE crippling blizzard in the Mid-Atlantic or in the southeast. It happened in the southeast (Florida, Georgia, and Carolina coastline) in February 1973 and in the lower Mid-Atlantic (Virginia, D.C., Maryland, and southeastern Pennsylvania) in both February 1983 and January 2016. However, it did not happen in 1827–28 or 1877–78 (I checked NOAA NCEI FORT data) or in 1997–98.

So, whether or not we get the “big one” remains up in the air for now. But it will be that one storm that will ultimately determine where the seasonal snowfall will stand (above / below climatology) in the southeast and Mid-Atlantic. If it occurs, many folks will get their seasonal spoonful of snow in one dumping. If it does not occur, it's just going to be a wet winter.

 
RankDJFJFMFMAMAMAMJMJJJJAJASASOSONONDNDJ

Ranked El Niño Events by 3-Month Season​

1198319831983198319831997199719971997199719971997
2199819981998199819921983198719871987198219821982
3197319921992199219981992197219721972197219721972
4193119311931198719871987198319821982198719021930
5199219731987194119411941190519051905190219301965
6196619191941193119931993198219021965193019871902
719191987192619261900190019021965190219651941*1991
819261941195819931997190519411957193019411965*1941
9195820101919195819581958199219411941190519251925
10189719582010190019401902195719301957192519941987
11201019661973194019311972196518961896189619051896
12198719261900191919151940195819181925195718961994
13194218971993191519261982194019831914199419861986
14198819951966190519051915199319401918198620061957
15194119151897201019191998190019191951200620092009
16199519001940198019801957191919142009191419572006
17191520031905189719301919193019511986200920021918
18200319421915196919691926200919581963196319912002
1919031993196919301902*1930196920091940197619141914
2019001988199519661991*1969193219921976200219181905
21190619692003199519821991191519691899195119631940
22200719051980195919322012201219931919199319931977
23197819031942199119941932201419321994191819761899
24198019401903193219952014199120062006189919771963
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top