• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry Winter 26-27

Webberweather53 said:
I can’t wait to hit the beach this Christmas yet again. If there was ever a winter to come out of the gate torching, it’s this one.
Click to expand...
james franco wtf GIF
 
Webberweather53 said:
I can’t wait to hit the beach this Christmas yet again. If there was ever a winter to come out of the gate torching, it’s this one.
Click to expand...
We’re actually planning on spending the week between Christmas and New Year’s at our family’s beach house on Oak Island. Knowing my luck it will probably rain the whole week
 
Chazwin said:
We’re actually planning on spending the week between Christmas and New Year’s at our family’s beach house on Oak Island. Knowing my luck it will probably rain the whole week
Click to expand...
Id say there is a high chance of that. I'll just go play Golf all December if the wx wants to do the Flood Pac Air shuffle.

Problem is it will be raining every 3 days or so and cloudy at least every other day. Not to mention the ground will be like walking on a sponge all winter.
 
Meanwhile, the Ole Trusty CFS weekly is trending colder for January. February is still favored.

We didn't have this bad boy back in 73 :cool:
 

Attachments

  • cfs-mon_01_T2ma_us_fh4_trend (2).gif
    cfs-mon_01_T2ma_us_fh4_trend (2).gif
    1.7 MB · Views: 18
NCSNOW said:
Id say there is a high chance of that. I'll just go play Golf all December if the wx wants to do the Flood Pac Air shuffle.

Problem is it will be raining every 3 days or so and cloudy at least every other day. Not to mention the ground will be like walking on a sponge all winter.
Click to expand...
Yeah I’m sure I’ll be playing plenty of golf in December myself. It will be interesting to see if any -NAO develops and puts us in wedge city every few days though
 
GaWx said:
Yes and even well before then:

Per AI per Wiki:

“The first widespread operational use of computer models for weather forecasting began in the mid-1950s to mid-1960s. The Joint Numerical Weather Prediction Unit was formed in the U.S. in 1954, and routine daily operational computer forecasts started around 1955 in the United States and 1965 in the United Kingdom, following the first computerized forecast run on the ENIAC computer in 1950.”
Click to expand...
Wow! that is amazing when you think about the technology available to the general population, especially in the South. When you consider that almost everyone in Alabama outside the cities, didn't have electricity or paved roads, the idea of computer generated forecast is mind boggling!🤓
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
Meanwhile, the Ole Trusty CFS weekly is trending colder for January. February is still favored.

We didn't have this bad boy back in 73 :cool:
Click to expand...

Feb is the month I’ve been following most closely. It’s most recent Feb 3 day run means are nowhere near as cold as some of the ones I posted a few weeks ago fwiw:

IMG_2302.png

Example from Aug 14-16:

IMG_1807.png


An even more extreme example from Aug 7-9:

IMG_1665.png
 
WEATHERBOYROY said:
How do these changes corollate with the forecasted decline of the extreme Elnino?
Click to expand...

Feb has averaged to be the coldest month in terms of anomalies for all El Niños combined. Regarding the progged rapid cooling of Nino 3.4 anomalies (at least on CFS), I don’t know whether or not that rapid weakening, itself, would actually matter much to Feb, however.
 
Last edited:
GaWx said:
Feb has averaged to be the coldest month in terms of anomalies for all El Niños combined. Regarding the progged rapid cooling of Nino 3.4 anomalies (at least on CFS), I don’t know whether or not that rapid weakening would matter much to Feb however.
Click to expand...
I'm sorry I didn't make a clear question, I was wondering if the forecast decline of the El nino might be a little farther out, maybe accounting for the warmer Dec. Jan, Feb. forecast temps from July and early August?
 
WEATHERBOYROY said:
I'm sorry I didn't make a clear question, I was wondering if the forecast decline of the El nino might be a little farther out, maybe accounting for the warmer Dec. Jan, Feb. forecast temps from July and early August?
Click to expand...

Good Q, but I don’t know that the model consensus is actually delaying the forecasted El Niño decline. Do you have model evidence supporting this? Even if so though, I don’t think that’s causing the CFSv2’s Feb progs to not be as cold as a few weeks ago. I attribute that volatility to the weakness of the model, itself. It was more than likely too cold a few weeks ago and it probably since corrected closer to reality.
 
I don't have any new data. I'm sure you would see that before me. I guess, I assumed that because the enso + and - always seem to take longer to occur than what projected initially.
 
GaWx said:
Good Q, but I don’t know that the model consensus is actually delaying the forecasted El Niño decline. Do you have model evidence supporting this? Even if so though, I don’t think that’s causing the CFSv2’s Feb progs to not be as cold as a few weeks ago. I attribute that volatility to the weakness of the model, itself. It was more than likely too cold a few weeks ago and it probably since corrected closer to reality.
Click to expand...
Travis released a nice video yesterday on El Niño and his thoughts on Pacific Ocean temperature anomalies as a whole.
 
Found this on the weather nerds of Alabama page. Not sure how this is derived, but would probably make most here happy if it verified.

Quote: “December through February snowfall outlook per Cansips model . Snow lovers should be very hopeful in much of the south. Credit: Jonathan Wall @wall.cloud”

IMG_3594.jpeg
 
256wx said:
Found this on the weather nerds of Alabama page. Not sure how this is derived, but would probably make most here happy if it verified.

Quote: “December through February snowfall outlook per Cansips model . Snow lovers should be very hopeful in much of the south. Credit: Jonathan Wall @wall.cloud”

View attachment 197788
Click to expand...
Don’t put too much weight into this 😂
 
256wx said:
Found this on the weather nerds of Alabama page. Not sure how this is derived, but would probably make most here happy if it verified.

Quote: “December through February snowfall outlook per Cansips model . Snow lovers should be very hopeful in much of the south. Credit: Jonathan Wall @wall.cloud”

View attachment 197788
Click to expand...

Too bad none of the analogs show this
 
NWMSGuy said:
Nice write-up on the Winter ahead from Severe Weather Europe:

www.severe-weather.eu

Winter 2026/2027 Snowfall Predictions: New Data Shows a Strong Super El Niño Snow Pattern

First Winter 2026/2027 snowfall predictions are starting to show a strong Super El Niño impact. Forecast data shows clear snowfall contrasts emerging across the United …
www.severe-weather.eu www.severe-weather.eu
Click to expand...

I really liked the point he made about how, despite some areas looking to get below average, would actually see an uptick from the previous year's seasonal forecast.

If it were to verify, the ECMWF Forecast anyways, that would make a lot of people (myself included) happy.
 
trackersacker said:
Frontloaded is honestly more fun IMO. If you wait until February than you gotta start worrying about climo and sun angle. Also who doesn’t want snow around Christmas
Click to expand...
Agreed, although around here we have to take it when we can get it.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Bobby is the new JB for the SE! 🤘 View attachment 197855
Click to expand...
1788481193068.png

I don't wanna go full conspiracy on this but, Snowbird Bob might be lurking here? I previously made fun of how far south in FL he would go with this stuff. And now he's purposely leaving them out entirely, while S AL is much above avg. To the border! Hmmmm.

Anyway, hi Snowbird Bob! Hope the legal troubles are behind you..
 
annunciated said:
I really liked the point he made about how, despite some areas looking to get below average, would actually see an uptick from the previous year's seasonal forecast.

If it were to verify, the ECMWF Forecast anyways, that would make a lot of people (myself included) happy.
Click to expand...

Seasonal models are glazing us. They're pretend I know and not worth much, but weenieism is real. This map makes me feel good.

1788527897788.png
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top