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Tropical 2026 Tropics Thread 🌀

Jimmy Hypocracy said:
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Yep, Dolly being the next storm is wild. It’s virtually impossible based on history and I realize we still could get her within a few days from Invest 96L, but what if the rest of the season were to be so amazingly quiet that we end up not even getting to Dolly?
 
^ Well, the 12Z UKMET says the above almost surely won’t happen due to 96L, alone. It develops it into a TD and fast and then later into TS Dolly. See 96L thread for more details.
 
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Keeping in mind that the UKMET was one of the earliest, to consistently predict Dolly with runs doing that going back as far as 7 days fwiw:

The 12Z UKMET has a low form in the subtropics well off the SE coast that later either his or is about to hit the SE US for the 3rd run in a row. Yesterday’s 12Z’s low was weak and it was about to hit NE FL at the end (Sept 2nd). Today’s 0Z had a TS about to come into the S portion of the FL E coast on Sept. 3rd.

Today’s 12Z UKMET has TCG at hour 108 that initially moves W but then strengthens into a TS that turns NW to hit Charleston on Sept. 3rd:


NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 29.8N 74.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.09.2026 108 29.8N 74.4W 1013 26
1200UTC 01.09.2026 120 29.8N 74.8W 1011 30
0000UTC 02.09.2026 132 29.5N 75.8W 1009 36
1200UTC 02.09.2026 144 30.3N 77.3W 1008 37
0000UTC 03.09.2026 156 31.4N 78.5W 1004 39
1200UTC 03.09.2026 168 33.1N 80.0W 1001 39
 
The 0Z UKMET has a low form in the subtropics well off the SE coast that later either hits or is about to hit the SE US for the 4th run in a row. Wed. 12Z’s low was weak and it was about to hit NE FL at the end (Sept 2nd). Yesterday’s 0Z had a TS about to come into the S portion of the FL E coast on Sept. 3rd. Yesterday’s 12Z UKMET had TCG at hour 108 that initially moved W but then strengthened into a TS that turned NW to hit Charleston on Sept. 3rd.

Today’s 0Z has TCG on Monday (8/31) for the 3rd run in a row with it moving WSW and then making TS status on Tue (9/1). It landfalls on WP Beach on Wed. (9/2) before moving W to the Gulf moving WNW out into the Gulf:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 28.9N 74.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.09.2026 96 28.9N 74.4W 1013 21
1200UTC 01.09.2026 108 28.2N 75.9W 1012 27
0000UTC 02.09.2026 120 27.0N 77.6W 1008 35
1200UTC 02.09.2026 132 26.5N 79.4W 1006 37
0000UTC 03.09.2026 144 26.9N 81.4W 1004 29
1200UTC 03.09.2026 156 27.6N 83.7W 1003 40
0000UTC 04.09.2026 168 28.6N 86.0W 1001 40
 
SD said:
The gfs popped a hurricane under the ridge in the extended. The idea that the UK and now gfs have makes sense. Old fronts and mcvs parked in the SW atlantic or gulf with a late season subtropical ridge over the top can get it done
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Shane, the 6Z GFS looks almost as if that TX H has origins from a combo of Dolly and a UK like subtropical energy/vorticity.
 
SD said:
The gfs popped a hurricane under the ridge in the extended. The idea that the UK and now gfs have makes sense. Old fronts and mcvs parked in the SW atlantic or gulf with a late season subtropical ridge over the top can get it done
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You are correct! 6z AI tried to toyed with the dolly remnant as well while the 6z Euro tried to spin up an old MCV along the Lousiana coast, interesting times ahead!
 
0z ICON going for the recurve. LLC gonna have a fight on its hands soon with shear and dry air. We'll see
 
I know hurricane season hasn't reached its peak yet and there are still over three months to go but if things keep rolling along as they have so far, it may be possible to do something that hasn't been done in over 100 years: have a hurricane season with no hurricanes. The last time this
occurred was in 1914 with five tropical storms that year and no hurricanes. The least active record hurricane season was in 1907 when only one tropical storm formed in the Atlantic the entire year.
 
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