PNA is #1 for the SE.
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Wintry Winter 26-27
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
PNA is #1 for the SE.
trackersacker
Member
New research compiled on Dr. Jonathan Wall’s Snow Signal website emphasizes the statistical probability increase of snowfall when a +PNA is present. It trumps the significance of every other teleconnection. This is not only for East Tennessee, but for many other CWA’s in the Southeast.This is a great new resource worth visiting. I think he plans to add more CWA’s in time as this project is still fairly new. https://snow.wall.cloud/
^^I've seen a -EPO do wonderful things. But yeah, the PNA is number one all the way.
HailCore
Member
Now it may be worth mentioning for those who have doubt in this winter that regardless of whatever is going on, if you live roughly NW of a line from BHM to ATL to CLT or so (with SC partially excluded due to downsloping/cold air delays), there WILL be at least trace amounts of winter weather for most of the interior region based on data from the last several years (sometimes you have to squint or stay up until 4am to confirm). But some years it is just that and not much more for folks especially near the edge.
Being close to ATL, I have grown to appreciate these smaller events more (such as NW flow flurries) as they represent more than nothing, and its nice to know that I should be able to rely on processes like these to get at least some flurries (even in lackluster years) to keep the streak going and the spirits higher. Even Brad P. I believe has mentioned that Charlotte, NC has never had a winter on record without a trace of winter weather, or at least a very, very long streak of trace-or-more events annually.
I understand places further north in regions averaging higher annual snow totals would make getting only trace amounts seem far worse, but I do think this winter provides a higher potential ceiling should arctic air intrude/winter precipitation occurs within one of these high-moisture systems along the STJ. I certainly am interested to see how this El Nino pans out, and hope we get an even board-wide hit or two, but we'll just have to wait and see what happens. Many times I have seen winters look poor early and do magical things later on and vice versa, so we might not really know until we get there.
Being close to ATL, I have grown to appreciate these smaller events more (such as NW flow flurries) as they represent more than nothing, and its nice to know that I should be able to rely on processes like these to get at least some flurries (even in lackluster years) to keep the streak going and the spirits higher. Even Brad P. I believe has mentioned that Charlotte, NC has never had a winter on record without a trace of winter weather, or at least a very, very long streak of trace-or-more events annually.
I understand places further north in regions averaging higher annual snow totals would make getting only trace amounts seem far worse, but I do think this winter provides a higher potential ceiling should arctic air intrude/winter precipitation occurs within one of these high-moisture systems along the STJ. I certainly am interested to see how this El Nino pans out, and hope we get an even board-wide hit or two, but we'll just have to wait and see what happens. Many times I have seen winters look poor early and do magical things later on and vice versa, so we might not really know until we get there.
I think he lives in Virginia he's not an on air meteorologist at the moment though. He was a meteorologist in the past though.
trackersacker
Member
I do like Travis. He’s a good YouTube follow for constant updates in the winter. He covers all the bases so you usually know what’s going on pretty well.
JP152
Member
From Tazewell I believe. Great place for snow in SW Virginia. Burke's Garden at 3100' had 42 inches last Winter. Plenty of upslope there.
I think most higher elevation areas will do great this year. The biggest concern for a lot of us will be how much cold will pair with each storm system. But, as long as the storm track stays south of the mountain areas, the higher locations should be good for many opportunities. I'll be taking a lot of Boone trips this year.
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JP152
Member
Might be a good Winter to be North and West
Brent
Member
We'll see. The last one here sucked even unfortunately
Bobby in tha building!
trackersacker
Member
GB delivering our pre season fix
256wx
Member
I saw where he expected early SPV disruptions as well.
I was looking at winter storm data from the winters of 1982-1983 and 1997-1998 which had very strong El Ninos close to the record event that is being predicted and both years Central North Carolina did see at least one event with accumulating winter precipitation. In 1982-1983 Raleigh had a January storm that produced two inches at RDU and in March a storm dumped seven inches and even larger totals east of the Triangle. Then came the latest accumulating snow on record at RDU on April 18, 1983.
In the winter of 1997-1998, Raleigh got one significant winter weather event in mid January with two inches being recorded at RDU. I know that history doesn't exactly repeat itself with El Nino weather events but after looking at this it makes me more optimistic that the record El Nino might not be the harbinger of doom that shuts down winter weather in Central North Carolina.
In the winter of 1997-1998, Raleigh got one significant winter weather event in mid January with two inches being recorded at RDU. I know that history doesn't exactly repeat itself with El Nino weather events but after looking at this it makes me more optimistic that the record El Nino might not be the harbinger of doom that shuts down winter weather in Central North Carolina.
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Drizzle Snizzle
Member
I know December 1997 was very active for snow lovers across the Deep South. There was the big snow event in MS and AL in Mid December and in Late December there was a snow event for Georgia. The rest of the winter sucked though.
HailCore
Member
Do you know anything about February 1998? Specifically on the 4th, I see the ECMWF ERA5 historical reanalysis with an upper low snow type feature during the morning hours over mainly the NW part of the state, but beyond that mostly confined to apps and points north and west. Couldn’t find any documentation of this in GA after a quick search. Perhaps it was borderline temps but mostly rain down in the southern extent regions?
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
I don’t remember any snow in Carrollton in February 1998. Just a lot of rain. I’m not sure about further north. That was probably the wettest winter and early spring that I can ever remember.
I believe that one hit early on a weekday morning but I may be confusing it. It wasn't supposed to do much but they finally sent us home from school with several inches on the ground and it still pouring snow. It piled up good but the sun came out and melted it super fast that afternoon.
Tsappfrog20
Member
So I know for myself in Roswell Ga school was canceled and we had several inches of snow and Ice
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Agreed it may not be the harbinger of doom, we'll see.
BTW, can you link anything you found about mid Jan 98 at RDU? Couldn't find anything on it. Did find these 2 events from that winter. 1st is this post Christmas NW Piedmont Special (being in W Guilford Co at the time, I remember this one--I actually thought it was more like 7''):
Exhibit B: Hwy 1 Minor Special that flips off the NW Piedmont (no recollection on this one--but probably not surprising)
Even if RDU did or didn't get 8'' in Jan 98, that winter was actually above average in the 90's. I've said it probably too many times, but the 90's were terrible around here. We all remember 93 and 96 (and 94 wasn't too shabby), but the rest of the decade was mostly something to forget winterwise.
I wish Bouncycorn did a seasonal forecast!!
Seasonally, it finally feels like winter is coming. Here is a photo from Ketchikan, AK back in June to get everyone in the spirit. I need another snow fix.View attachment IMG_1254a.JPG
You are correct about the January 19, 1998 storm bringing only two inches of snow to RDU. I should have looked at some maps instead of reading a summary which I didn't read carefully enough. While I feel we will be above normal temperature wise this coming winter, if we can time a cold shot with the abundant moisture El Nino should bring, we can still score and maybe we can score bigtime.
All good. Honestly I was hoping RDU really got that in 98 and I just couldn't find it.
My unprofessional opinion on the super nino stuff. I'll take my chances on above avg QPF over below avg every time. I see it as more chances, but that's just me. I'd rather have 33+ and rain then 20 and bone dry while FL gets an inch. (and that's no offense to FL, but you know)
tennessee storm
Member
Why ? It’s just a big guessing game for nowI wish Bouncycorn did a seasonal forecast!!
That 1997-98 winter also had a significant winter storm in late December between Christmas and New Years for much of the south
Tsappfrog20
Member
So was looking it seems that 2014/2015 was a super El Niño as well maybe others have already said that but if I remember correctly NC did pretty well in 2014&2015 overall
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Not bad for some. Fairly pronounced N-S gradient that winter.
LOL at that Wake Co gradient.
Edit: Basically NC had a lot of potential that year. Some areas produced, and others missed the opportunity. Probably not a bad analog for this one depending on how it shakes out.
Tsappfrog20
Member
Not bad for some. Fairly pronounced N-S gradient that winter.
View attachment 197634
LOL at that Wake Co gradient.
Yea that gradient was 3-7 inches or so lol
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This is so dumb....He doesn't even have the color scale lined up with the anomalies. What a strange outfit.Bobby in tha building!
I took another look. This season had a lot of minor events scattered throughout Jan into late Feb. The above total's got some skew from this late Feb event.Not bad for some. Fairly pronounced N-S gradient that winter.
View attachment 197634
LOL at that Wake Co gradient.
Edit: Basically NC had a lot of potential that year. Some areas produced, and others missed the opportunity. Probably not a bad analog for this one depending on how it shakes out.
Interesting enough, there was a "foreshock" 1-2 days before:
Long story short, quite a few opportunities that winter FWIW.
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SnowNiner
Member
Ah yes, the times when February was a winter month. I remember them so fondly.
Tsappfrog20
Member
It was basically 2014-2016. During November and December 2015 values within NOAA oceanic Nino index peak at 2.3 Celsius which surpassed this number 1997 value of 2.2 Celsius.
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Tsappfrog20
Member
You are right about any EL Nino that exceeds 2.0 being very strong. The Winter of 1982-1983 is the strongest recorded El Nino event in history for now and it was 2.4 degrees Celsius above normal. WRAL had a good article in their Ask the Meteorologist column yesterday about strong El Ninos and their effects on winter weather in the Triangle that I can not find now.
Alright, let's toss 1997-1998 since it's in dispute on here. All in on 1982-1983!
