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Wintry Winter 26-27

None of us nor any model can accurately predict how much snow/ice we will get but my hunch is a super NINO will foul up the jet stream so bad that we end up normal to above but with a lot of rain. Watch for a COOLISH November followed by a warm December. If the pattern changes in either direction around Christmas, you will have a good indication of how Jan/Feb turn out, just MHO
 
I agree, it didn't help us north central Alabama. The only good event I can remember was Jan 1982 but that was still neutral at the time. 2023 was terrible here!

Recorded Super El Niño Events (since 1950) Wikipedia+1​

According to NOAA’s Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) and other verified datasets, five events have met the ≥ +2.0 °C threshold:

  1. 1972–73 – First “super” event in the satellite-era record; peak ONI ~+2.0 °C iamelnino.com+1.
  2. 1982–83 – Very strong, unexpected in intensity; peak ONI ~+2.0 °C iamelnino.com+1.
  3. 1997–98 – Peak ONI ~+2.3 °C; most damaging 20th‑century El Niño the-weather.com.
  4. 2015–16 – Peak ONI ~+2.6 °C; strongest on record per ONI iamelnino.com+1.
  5. 2023–24 – Peak ONI ~+2.0 °C; one of the five strongest on record the-weather.com.
 
I get the distinct impression that many of you want to be done with the summer and are ready for a turn toward a more exciting fall and winter weather pattern nationally....

And I understand that sentiment, because the same features that have been visible in the JJA semester very likely will last through perhaps the first 3/4 of September. The heat has been intense in the same areas, and before the season is done I am fairly certain that another prominent burst of cTw+mTw values will overtake most of the lower 48 states. Thunderstorms are providing some excitement along the northern tier (that streak of frequent severe weather in the Midwest is plainly obvious), but the boundary associated with the repetitive convection will likely get close to the Canadian border in the 11-15 day period, and perhaps again in Week 4. Since the Labor Day holiday weekend is now in our forecast range, I have to stress that the famed "Corn Belt tornado machine" is probably going to get another heavy workout. Draw a line from Iowa to Ohio and block 200 miles either side for the "danger zone" when making your travel plans either side of September 5-6-7.

What will finally take down the Sonoran heat ridge will be one of two features. That productive moisture axis off of Mexico, currently increasing hurricane chances to Baja California and Hawaii, should turn its energy toward either the Isthmus of Tehuantepec or the Sea of Cortez in mid or late September. Another possibility is that the polar westerlies may split in a "typical El Nino" fashion, where energy and cold pockets blast through the Desert Regions into the Edwards Plateau. Judging by current satellite trends, which feature an arc of deep tropical moisture from the equatorial Pacific Ocean into Mexico and then Florida, I favor the former risk. And if that is the configuration for fall and winter, all of you who have been chomping at the bit for colder SON to DJF period (like the analogs and CFS series keep saying) could be very happy. The El Nino measure has leveled off, and keep in mind that a very visible downturn or crash is predicted around October 1. It is too early to post any exact predictions, but should a typhoon get ingested into that Gulf of Alaska Low/Vortex, then the 1965-66 and 1976-77 comparison tests should get a lookover. Since the waters in the Atlantic Basin are not mirroring the +ENSO values, and because blocking has been so recurrent with cold frontal passages from the north central states through the Great Lakes into the Northeast, seasonal amplification trends would favor a +PNA/-NAO outline as we head into the low sun period. We will get an end to the oppressive heat in Texas and the severe weather cycle in Illinois. But keep your eyes open to the possibility of a very stormy fall and winter that eventually would tap into colder air.





Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on
Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 3:55 A.M. CT​
 
lexxnchloe said:
I get the distinct impression that many of you want to be done with the summer and are ready for a turn toward a more exciting fall and winter weather pattern nationally....

And I understand that sentiment, because the same features that have been visible in the JJA semester very likely will last through perhaps the first 3/4 of September. The heat has been intense in the same areas, and before the season is done I am fairly certain that another prominent burst of cTw+mTw values will overtake most of the lower 48 states. Thunderstorms are providing some excitement along the northern tier (that streak of frequent severe weather in the Midwest is plainly obvious), but the boundary associated with the repetitive convection will likely get close to the Canadian border in the 11-15 day period, and perhaps again in Week 4. Since the Labor Day holiday weekend is now in our forecast range, I have to stress that the famed "Corn Belt tornado machine" is probably going to get another heavy workout. Draw a line from Iowa to Ohio and block 200 miles either side for the "danger zone" when making your travel plans either side of September 5-6-7.

What will finally take down the Sonoran heat ridge will be one of two features. That productive moisture axis off of Mexico, currently increasing hurricane chances to Baja California and Hawaii, should turn its energy toward either the Isthmus of Tehuantepec or the Sea of Cortez in mid or late September. Another possibility is that the polar westerlies may split in a "typical El Nino" fashion, where energy and cold pockets blast through the Desert Regions into the Edwards Plateau. Judging by current satellite trends, which feature an arc of deep tropical moisture from the equatorial Pacific Ocean into Mexico and then Florida, I favor the former risk. And if that is the configuration for fall and winter, all of you who have been chomping at the bit for colder SON to DJF period (like the analogs and CFS series keep saying) could be very happy. The El Nino measure has leveled off, and keep in mind that a very visible downturn or crash is predicted around October 1. It is too early to post any exact predictions, but should a typhoon get ingested into that Gulf of Alaska Low/Vortex, then the 1965-66 and 1976-77 comparison tests should get a lookover. Since the waters in the Atlantic Basin are not mirroring the +ENSO values, and because blocking has been so recurrent with cold frontal passages from the north central states through the Great Lakes into the Northeast, seasonal amplification trends would favor a +PNA/-NAO outline as we head into the low sun period. We will get an end to the oppressive heat in Texas and the severe weather cycle in Illinois. But keep your eyes open to the possibility of a very stormy fall and winter that eventually would tap into colder air.





Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on
Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 3:55 A.M. CT​
Click to expand...
"The El Nino measure has leveled off, and keep in mind that a very visible downturn or crash is predicted around October 1."--Where are you seeing this?
 
tennessee storm said:
Lmao this Nino going off the chart
Click to expand...
Yep and just look at chart above. Anything above 2.0 is considered a strong el nino. By mid Jan after it has been declining in strength, its still at 2.0+.

This will produce a lot of extreme wx. From droughts to flooding globally . Probably crank out quite a few more severe events than the conus is accustomed to late fall into winter.

Most likely this all time highest el nino will produce several blockbuster winter storms for whoever can thread the needle and get the atmosphere just cold enough to cooperate. Gonna be tough down this way outside of elevation. How the blocking does or doesn't materilize will hold the key to frozen for many of us in the southeast.

Most unlikely scenerio is, we in the SE will see is a major artic outbreak. Best call you have made. Now anything is possible. But strong el ninos really screw with the way the tablle gets set for delivering true polar air. Biggest help to us in the SE is keeping the atlantic sst above normal heading into winter. This will increase the potential for a negative AO /NAO. If the pv gets locked in and tightened up around the NP, gonna be hard to get dislodged this year.
 
NCSNOW said:
Yep and just look at chart above. Anything above 2.0 is considered a strong el nino. By mid Jan after it has been declining in strength, its still at 2.0+.

This will produce a lot of extreme wx. From droughts to flooding globally . Probably crank out quite a few more severe events than the conus is accustomed to late fall into winter.

Most likely this all time highest el nino will produce several blockbuster winter storms for whoever can thread the needle and get the atmosphere just cold enough to cooperate. Gonna be tough down this way outside of elevation. How the blocking does or doesn't materilize will hold the key to frozen for many of us in the southeast.

Most unlikely scenerio is, we in the SE will see is a major artic outbreak. Best call you have made. Now anything is possible. But strong el ninos really screw with the way the tablle gets set for delivering true polar air. Biggest help to us in the SE is keeping the atlantic sst above normal heading into winter. This will increase the potential for a negative AO /NAO. If the pv gets locked in and tightened up around the NP, gonna be hard to get dislodged this year.
Click to expand...
I think you’re right about how blocking sets up this year and the impact it will. Fortunately it seems like the last several years we’ve gone back into a cycle that good blocking and negative NAO has been setting up more often during the winter.
 
Are we doing the alliterative names this winter? Based on the CFS maps I’ll throw out Frostbite February… maybe Jacket January?
 
NCSNOW said:
Can the Atlantic stay AN? Check out the NW Pac. Might be a wildcard/ monkey wrench this winter

View attachment 197566
Click to expand...

That very warm NW Pacific is driving a solid -PDO. It would be nice if that would diminish in intensity and allow a PDO increase. Strong El Niño forcing tends to favor a +PDO looking well back in history. Actually from 1877-8 through 1957-8, all 11 strong ones had a +PDO DJF. However, 1965-6 and 1972-3 were neutral. Then the 4 strong ones 1982-3 through 1997-8 went back to +PDO followed by a neutral 2009-10. 2015-6 went back to +PDO followed by 2023-4 being the first on record with a -PDO and a strong one at that!

Being that August of 2026 will end up most likely 2nd strongest pre strong Nino Aug -PDO with even a slight chance at the strongest -PDO pre-strong Nino Aug, the chances of a +PDO this winter are low. Hopefully it would rise to neutral PDO and we don’t get the 2nd strong Nino winter -PDO in a row.

Full tally for 20 strong El Niño events since 1877-8:
-16 (80%) +PDO
- 3 (15%) neutral PDO
- 1 (5%) -PDO

PDO data: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/v6/index/ersst.v6.pdo.dat
 
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Great Research GAWX. Yea theres no ignoring the 500lb Gorilla sitting in the room. What happens with PDO and Atlantic blocking or lack of blocking will tell the tale.

To me its irrelevant what the Atlantic does, if the PDO stays negative. Kaddie bar the door and it will be the year without winter in my opinion if the PDO pulls off another 23-24 face slap.

Before I start listening to Judah Cohen and monitoring the build up and advancement of snowpack on the NP. Its really will be all about the PDO. If its stays negative Ill be golfing using the 90 degree cart rule all winter and watching the turnips and cabbage keep on ticking.
 
My gut is screaming we are in big trouble this winter. may can scratch out big late winter early March big dog for someone. But I just saw this movie a couple of years ago and its not a pretty one. Stubborn and hard to push out.


AI:

What to Expect
    • Timing: An absolute shift past the zero line into a firmly positive PDO phase is more likely delayed until late 2026 or early winter/spring 2027 rather than occurring early in the autumn transition. [1, 2]
    • Uncertainty: While the trend shows general warming, the exact magnitude and persistence required to officially flip the multi-month average into positive territory remain uncertain due to lingering negative decadal momentum. [1, 2]
You can track monthly updates directly via the NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory.

If you'd like, we can explore:
  • How this negative-to-neutral PDO trend impacts the upcoming winter 2026/2027 storm tracks
  • The specific feedback between the developing El Niño and North Pacific sea surface temperatures
 
How would you guys rank things in level of importance from the following for us to have a nice winter?

PDO going positive
+PNA
EPO
North Atlantic Blocking
STJ (seems like moisture won’t be a problem this year)
Anything else?
 
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