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Wintry Winter 26-27

YetAnotherRDUGuy said:
That's a great headline, but I don't see a winter map like Snowbird Bob posts. Not sure if you're legit or not. 🤔
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I am seriously still struggling with SBB. He has a new map out every day. I get the dramatic imagery and stuff, from a social media standpoint. But I don't understand a brand new map with different areas shaded with the most snow every other day. That's ridiculous and clownish.
 
A great Met out of Dubuque Terry Swails (sp)
He just mentioned today that he thinks most places up here will not even make it to “ normal” snowfall this winter! And I think 2023 was a Nino, and winter sucked big time up here!
 
Rain Cold said:
I am seriously still struggling with SBB. He has a new map out every day. I get the dramatic imagery and stuff, from a social media standpoint. But I don't understand a brand new map with different areas shaded with the most snow every other day. That's ridiculous and clownish.
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I look at it this way RC. Social media has to have some hype to get clicks and that's the game, but it's a balance right? That dude doesn't do hype..he does HYPE!!! Short term gain, but not respectable in the long term if that makes sense.

Also doesn't that guy have a criminal record? (no seriously, I think he does 🤷‍♂️)
 
GaWx said:
The latest few CFSv2 4 day means have reduced the Feb cold in the SE substantially:
View attachment 197491

Compare this to the 4 day mean from just 2.5 days before:
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To be entirely honest and no offense, it’s hard for me to take this model seriously no matter what it says when it runs multiple times a day. We’ve already seen it go back and forth multiple times in regards to the upcoming winter. If I’m looking at seasonal modeling I’d honestly rather look at ones that run once a month. Anything more than that at this range feels like I’m flipping through the Farmer’s Almanac. That’s just me though.
 
trackersacker said:
To be entirely honest and no offense, it’s hard for me to take this model seriously no matter what it says when it runs multiple times a day. We’ve already seen it go back and forth multiple times in regards to the upcoming winter. If I’m looking at seasonal modeling I’d honestly rather look at ones that run once a month. Anything more than that at this range feels like I’m flipping through the Farmer’s Almanac. That’s just me though.
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I'm totally with you on this one. I don't even understand why people are trying to forecast 6 months out seriously except to get likes and people's hopes up

Let's worry about September and if summer ever goes away first
 
trackersacker said:
To be entirely honest and no offense, it’s hard for me to take this model seriously no matter what it says when it runs multiple times a day. We’ve already seen it go back and forth multiple times in regards to the upcoming winter. If I’m looking at seasonal modeling I’d honestly rather look at ones that run once a month. Anything more than that at this range feels like I’m flipping through the Farmer’s Almanac. That’s just me though.
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Yeah please take these runs with a grain salt no matter what … 5 to 6 months out anyways lol
 
trackersacker said:
To be entirely honest and no offense, it’s hard for me to take this model seriously no matter what it says when it runs multiple times a day. We’ve already seen it go back and forth multiple times in regards to the upcoming winter. If I’m looking at seasonal modeling I’d honestly rather look at ones that run once a month. Anything more than that at this range feels like I’m flipping through the Farmer’s Almanac. That’s just me though.
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No offense taken because all models looking a few months out should always be taken with a grain. My posting them doesn’t mean I believe them even if I love what they show. But this is a winter thread started in summer. So, it is relevant to the subject.

I have noticed over many years of experience posting winter forecast maps that when they look the coldest they more rarely get posts like this.

One thing they haven’t gone back and forth on is that Dec has looked mild for much of the Conus, which matches W QBO/Nino analogs well. Thus, I’ve been expecting Dec to be mild, especially the more N you are.

Here’s the latest Dec map:
IMG_1808.png
 
Brent said:
I'm totally with you on this one. I don't even understand why people are trying to forecast 6 months out seriously except to get likes and people's hopes up

Let's worry about September and if summer ever goes away first
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It is because this is a winter thread, not autumn.

One thing that the SE can be pretty confident in is a wetter than normal winter, especially deep SE, based on analogs. That’s good news for SE drought breaking potential.
 
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superjames1992 said:
Some people might call this slop, but I call it beautiful. I love how Greensboro is where Charlotte is and Raleigh seems to now be…Charlotb?

PREPARE NOW. WINTER WILL MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT.

View attachment 197497
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Oh Come On GIF
 
Aug 19 release of the IRI dynamical multi-model ENSO average shows an El Nino tri-monthly peak of +3.4 occurring in OND & NDJ.

Here is how much the dynamical multi-model peak has risen since the March model release:
March: +1.5 (NDJ)
April: +1.8 (OND & NDJ)
May: +2.2 (OND & NDJ)
June: +2.6 (SON)
July: +3.2 (OND)
August: +3.4 (OND & NDJ)

Here are the all-time highest ENSO tri-monthly values from Eric Webb's ENSO Ensemble ONI Index research back to 1850 (+2.4 or greater shown):
1877-1878: +2.6 (OND), +2.7 (NDJ), +2.7 (DJF)
1982-1983: +2.4 (NDJ), +2.4 (DJF)
1997-1998: +2.4 (SON), +2.5 (OND), +2.6 (NDJ), +2.5 (DJF)
2015-2016: +2.6 (OND), +2.7 (NDJ), +2.5 (DJF)

Reference: https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

Aug IRI ENSO Plume.png
 
GaWx said:
No offense taken because all models looking a few months out should always be taken with a grain. My posting them doesn’t mean I believe them even if I love what they show. But this is a winter thread started in summer. So, it is relevant to the subject.

I have noticed over many years of experience posting winter forecast maps that when they look the coldest they more rarely get posts like this.

One thing they haven’t gone back and forth on is that Dec has looked mild for much of the Conus, which matches W QBO/Nino analogs well. Thus, I’ve been expecting Dec to be mild, especially the more N you are.

Here’s the latest Dec map:
View attachment 197493
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Totally respect all those points man. I enjoy being a part of the discussion and appreciate what you have to offer.
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
Glad I went out with a bang last winter with a 16” season…. This Spring will be my last winter in NC I’m moving to Summerville SC. Unfortunately I feel like that will be only 2 seasons “Hot” and “Less Hot” smh


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Lived there for years. Really nice area,but yeah 2 seasons is basically true.
 
YetAnotherRDUGuy said:
Since @SD went thru the trouble of that map, I've went thru it and highlighted my favorite features.

View attachment 197487

- Most cites appear to have 2 points? Birmingham and Montgomery have 3.
- Charlotte appears to be in SC.
- What's that Russian script near Raleigh? Probably SD's house..
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What's the purple in Richmond?
 
Well now I’m excited about the super Nino! This is for Sioux Falls SD. They average about 40” a year……IMG_6268.jpegIMG_6269.jpeg
 
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