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Wintry Winter 26-27

SnowNiner said:
Hey Larry, you got any of that magic data on how often cold SE winter forecasts from the seasonal models have been right? I'm open to however many months ahead of time, but my assumption is August-October accuracy has been poor unless it's forecasting warm. My curiosity is if they're every correct when showing cold.
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confused paul rudd GIF
 
GaWx said:
The new JAMSTEC for winter is the 5th in a row that is cold in the E US/coldest land area on the globe there. In addition, Alaska and W Canada are quite warm, which typically teleconnect with a cold E US:

View attachment 197347



Not only have the last 5 Jamstec runs had cold and the coldest on the globe on land in the E US for winter, the 2023-4 winter forecast made in August was much warmer with it NN (see below). Also, this DJF forecast made in August of 2023 had been the coldest DJF made by Jamstec in August back to when the current records go back to, which is August of 2017! So, the following for 23-24 and today’s for 26-7 are the two coldest August runs for DJF:

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We toss
 
256wx said:
Would y'all rather get one 20" bomb event this winter or several 1-2" events? I'd rather multiple small snows, but I have a feeling this will probably be boom or bust. We either get totally blanked or blizzard of '93. No science behind that, just a feeling/banter.
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I get you, but its 20'' bomb or bust for me. (heck I'd take 10''+ even) Several low end events a winter are nice, but those aren't the ones that get remembered.

95% of snow events I've ever experienced are less than 2'' events, and 75% of those had pingers mixing in. That's better than nothing, but I'd trade 10 of those for even a 50% chance of a big dog. Just my opinion though.
 
I’ll also admit my %’s are purely anectodal. Might be 95% less than 3’’, I dunno.

Got more confidence on the 75% mixed w/ sleet though (or at least frz rn/rn) without looking at any real data.
 
YetAnotherRDUGuy said:
I’ll also admit my %’s are purely anectodal. Might be 95% less than 3’’, I dunno.

Got more confidence on the 75% mixed w/ sleet though (or at least frz rn/rn) without looking at any real data.
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Mixed event can be very impactful. I've posted the below map of the 1996 storm about every year because this is one of my favorite winter events of all time; and I didn't get one flake of snow from it:
1786648330464.png
I was living in Wake Forest at the time and experienced 14 hours of heavy/moderate sleet. Over 6" at my location. A week later there was still only one lane of traffic open on Capital heading down toward Raleigh. Then we got this on top of all the sleet on the ground:
1786648635346.png

We've had some great snowstorms since then, and more impactful ice storms, but 1996 was a very rememberable couple of weeks for me. I've been waiting for a repeat.
 
FallsLake said:
Mixed event can be very impactful. I've posted the below map of the 1996 storm about every year because this is one of my favorite winter events of all time; and I didn't get one flake of snow from it:
View attachment 197350
I was living in Wake Forest at the time and experienced 14 hours of heavy/moderate sleet. Over 6" at my location. A week later there was still only one lane of traffic open on Capital heading down toward Raleigh. Then we got this on top of all the sleet on the ground:
View attachment 197351

We've had some great snowstorms since then, and more impactful ice storms, but 1996 was a very rememberable couple of weeks for me. I've been waiting for a repeat.
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OMG, a 96 reference! I loved that storm. I will point out that one is an exception and most of the time we get mixed we don’t get above 4’’, but when it happens its fun. So yea, I’ll take either a 20’’ bomb or another winter 96. 🤣

On a sidenote, I was in north High Point back then near GSO. (on the accum map, right on the edge of lgt /dark blue). Mostly 10’’ of snow but sleet cut in towards the end to prevent a foot. One of the longest duration storms I recall and it was glorious—Sat AM to Sun early PM. Maybe 30-36 hr duration. There was another minor event 1-2’’ after that a few days later. (Edit: oh wait, that's the 2nd map you posted LOL) Also an ice storm for the Triad in Feb 1996 that no one ever talks about anymore. (not sure what it did in the Triangle, I can’t find any accum maps on that one for some reason)
 
YetAnotherRDUGuy said:
OMG, a 96 reference! I loved that storm. I will point out that one is an exception and most of the time we get mixed we don’t get above 4’’, but when it happens its fun. So yea, I’ll take either a 20’’ bomb or another winter 96. 🤣

On a sidenote, I was in north High Point back then near GSO. (on the accum map, right on the edge of lgt /dark blue). Mostly 10’’ of snow but sleet cut in towards the end to prevent a foot. One of the longest duration storms I recall and it was glorious—Sat AM to Sun early PM. Maybe 30-36 hr duration. There was another minor event 1-2’’ after that a few days later. (Edit: oh wait, that's the 2nd map you posted LOL) Also an ice storm for the Triad in Feb 1996 that no one ever talks about anymore. (not sure what it did in the Triangle, I can’t find any accum maps on that one for some reason)
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I can't find the ice storm on Webbers site. But he doesn't have all the storms mapped. I did find this in middle February:
1786670982966.png

Sadly, 1996 references don't work as comparisons for this year because it wasn't an el nino year.
 
FallsLake said:
That looks more like a la nina forecast. And if there is a -NAO and +PNA (with el nino) no way do we not see above normal snow/ice.
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Didn't they just release one like 2 days ago with a big swath of above normal snow through NC? 😅
 
Can kicking has commenced. The latest CFS says enjoy your February-March slop. A sack of salt, of course, applies. CanSIPS, on the other hand, looks delicious. Cold with non-stop Miller As are implied.cfs-mon_01_T2ma_us_fh4-7.gifcansips_T2ma_us_fh4-7.gif
 
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256wx said:
Would y'all rather get one 20" bomb event this winter or several 1-2" events? I'd rather multiple small snows, but I have a feeling this will probably be boom or bust. We either get totally blanked or blizzard of '93. No science behind that, just a feeling/banter.
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I'd like mid/north AL/GA/SC to cash in this year. Our NC friends scored big last winter. Time for some new winners!
 
256wx said:
Would y'all rather get one 20" bomb event this winter or several 1-2" events? I'd rather multiple small snows, but I have a feeling this will probably be boom or bust. We either get totally blanked or blizzard of '93. No science behind that, just a feeling/banter.
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I haven’t seen a 6” snow in nearly 12 years, so I’d take the big dog for sure.
 
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