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Wintry Winter 26-27

This is not only the coldest forecast for JFM made in summer for the SE US to C Plains part of the U.S. in El Niño, it is by a good margin THE coldest JFM forecast for this area that I could find made from any season and in any ENSO back to the start of the CFSv2 way back in 2012! This is extreme, folks!
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GaWx said:
This is not only the coldest forecast for JFM made in summer for the SE US to C Plains part of the U.S. in El Niño, it is by a good margin THE coldest JFM forecast for this area that I could find made from any season and in any ENSO back to the start of the CFSv2 way back in 2012! This is extreme, folks!
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Maybe this will be that once in a lifetime kind of year. Gotta come back around eventually.
 
Stevo24 said:
Maybe this will be that once in a lifetime kind of year. Gotta come back around eventually.
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Looking at potential fab Feb, alone, the progged coldest month:

Mainly for entertainment: The image below is the TT 2m mean of the last 12 CFSv2 ops for Feb ‘27. It is extremely cold from the C Plains to the SE US with anomalies of -8 to -11 F even vs 1984-2009 climo, which is a bit colder than 1991-2020!

It’s just about as cold there as the frigid Febs of 1978, 1958, and 1905 and is a bit colder than Febs of 2015, 2010, 1968, 1963, 1947, and 1902. It isn’t quite as cold as the record coldest, 1895:

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GaWx said:
Looking at potential fab Feb, alone, the progged coldest month:

Mainly for entertainment: The image below is the TT 2m mean of the last 12 CFSv2 ops for Feb ‘27. It is extremely cold from the C Plains to the SE US with anomalies of -8 to -11 F even vs 1984-2009 climo, which is a bit colder than 1991-2020!

It’s just about as cold there as the frigid Febs of 1978, 1958, and 1905 and is a bit colder than Febs of 2015, 2010, 1968, 1963, 1947, and 1902. It isn’t quite as cold as the record coldest, 1895:

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That's an insanely strong signal for a monthly mean regardless of the lead time. Wow!

Do you have the coldest run of the twelve handy? Just for fun, of course.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
That's an insanely strong signal for a monthly mean regardless of the lead time. Wow!

Do you have the coldest run of the twelve handy? Just for fun, of course.
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No. TT doesn’t have individual op runs. They just do the avg of the last 12, which covers 72 hours worth of runs. WB has individual “control” runs, but WB CFS maps have major issues with distortion and cold bias, which is why I won’t post those. The CFSv2 site, itself, is obviously the best. But I don’t see individual runs on it.

But regarding the map I posted (TT, much better source than WB for CFSv2 imho), the one thing that bothers me is the cold in Alaska. I’d much rather see it warm on any model due to the partial correlation to SE cold.
 
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NBAcentel said:
I thought last winter was the greatest winter of my life. Lol
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Sanford And Son Smh GIF
 
GaWx said:
No. TT doesn’t have individual op runs. They just do the avg of the last 12, which covers 72 hours worth of runs. WB has individual “control” runs, but WB CFS maps have major issues with distortion and cold bias, which is why I won’t post those. The CFSv2 site, itself, is obviously the best. But I don’t see individual runs on it.

But regarding the map I posted (TT, much better source than WB for CFSv2 imho), the one thing that bothers me is the cold in Alaska. I’d much rather see it warm on any model due to the partial correlation to SE cold.
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Thanks. I was looking for some hard core Barney porn, lol. There has to be some individual members that are ice age worthy.

Yeah, I noticed those cold anomalies in Alaska, too. But those heights over Atlantic Canada and Greenland 👀
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Wild Weather Monger said:
Thanks. I was looking for some hard core Barney porn, lol. There has to be some individual members that are ice age worthy.

Yeah, I noticed those cold anomalies in Alaska, too. But those heights over Atlantic Canada and Greenland 👀
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I don't think I've seen +12 & -12dam anomalies on H500 maps for winter in a hot minute. That would be a good pattern as a starter for cold shots.
 
The latest 10 day mean of CFSv2 op runs for JFM is even colder than what had very briefly become the coldest ever CFSv2 10 day JFM mean that I had ever seen, which I posted last night!

It has KATL at -3C/-5.4F vs the 1991-2020 mean. That’s 44F. For reference: since 1980 only one JFM has been 45F or lower: 2010’s 43F!
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GaWx said:
The latest 10 day mean of CFSv2 op runs for JFM is even colder than what had very briefly become the coldest ever CFSv2 10 day JFM mean that I had ever seen, which I posted last night!

It has KATL at -3C/-5.4F vs the 1991-2020 mean. That’s 44F. For reference: since 1980 only one JFM has been 45F or lower: 2010’s 43F!
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I should know better, but man, that has me salivating.

I also can't help but notice that recent runs have been trending colder for December, too! If true, this would indicate that by late December, the turn to frigid will be well underway. Wow.
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Chunk of Himalayan sea salt for all these seasonal models, basically just all climo ENSO imo. But this looks about what I would expect for a best case scenario for a super nino winter. Good atlantic blocking, but a terrible pacific due to the strong STJ elongated too far east. Western trough results and mild pacific air from California through the gulf states coast to coast = Wet and coolish/normal SE. Worst case we lose the Atlantic blocking, SE trough turns into a ridge, and we roast. All conjecture at this point but the pacific pattern below seems more right based on the strength of the nino to me.

My biggest question is what is going to help us retract the jet, move the pacific trough west to the Aleutians and pump a western ridge?

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The new JAMSTEC for winter is the 5th in a row that is cold in the E US/coldest land area on the globe there. In addition, Alaska and W Canada are quite warm, which typically teleconnect with a cold E US:

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Not only have the last 5 Jamstec runs had cold and the coldest on the globe on land in the E US for winter, the 2023-4 winter forecast made in August was much warmer with it NN (see below). Also, this DJF forecast made in August of 2023 had been the coldest DJF made by Jamstec in August back to when the current records go back to, which is August of 2017! So, the following for 23-24 and today’s for 26-7 are the two coldest August runs for DJF:

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CaryWx said:
Couldn't all these BN temp looks just be attributed to daytime overcast skies and not really snow level cold?
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Not this level of cold. Upper levels like 850 mb and 500 mb are also solidly colder than normal. The precip would bring down dynamic cooling from the colder than normal upper air. Wet El Niño certainly helps to make it colder at the surface in daytime, but it’s more than that with an implied strong +PNA, especially in Feb. The signals from just about all models are insisting on quite a cold Feb with Jan being transitional chilly following a NN to a bit AN Dec in the SE. I’m expecting AN E US for the most part in Dec, especially further N. History/anslogs support this.

Here is the very wet precip map for DJF:
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GaWx said:
Not this level of cold. Upper levels like 850 mb and 500 mb are also solidly colder than normal. The precip would bring down dynamic cooling from the colder than normal upper air. Wet El Niño certainly helps to make it colder at the surface in daytime, but it’s more than that with an implied strong +PNA, especially in Feb. The signals from just about all models are insisting on quite a cold Feb with Jan being transitional chilly following a NN to a bit AN Dec in the SE. History supports this.

Here is the very wet precip map for DJF:
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Anytime I hear about February I cringe.
 
GaWx said:
Not this level of cold. Upper levels like 850 mb and 500 mb are also solidly colder than normal. The precip would bring down dynamic cooling from the colder than normal upper air. Wet El Niño certainly helps to make it colder at the surface in daytime, but it’s more than that with an implied strong +PNA, especially in Feb. The signals from just about all models are insisting on quite a cold Feb with Jan being transitional chilly following a NN to a bit AN Dec in the SE. I’m expecting AN E US for the most part in Dec, especially further N. History/anslogs support this.

Here is the very wet precip map for DJF:
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My worst nightmare is that Winter is warm until Mid February and then the cold finally comes when it's too late for the Deep South to get snow. Cold from Feb 15-March 15 only helps the Northern South.
 
Drizzle Snizzle said:
My worst nightmare is that Winter is warm until Mid February and then the cold finally comes when it's too late for the Deep South to get snow. Cold from Feb 15-March 15 only helps the Northern South.
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1. This isn’t true.
2. The models are implying a solidly cold Feb, not just a cold 2nd half of Feb.
Edit: 3. The models are showing a slightly BN Jan, too. That would mean a cold Jan essentially, just not as cold as Feb.
 
GaWx said:
1. This isn’t true.
2. The models are implying a solidly cold Feb, not just a cold 2nd half of Feb.
Edit: 3. The models are showing a slightly BN Jan, too. That would mean a cold Jan essentially, just not as cold as Feb.
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Hey Larry, you got any of that magic data on how often cold SE winter forecasts from the seasonal models have been right? I'm open to however many months ahead of time, but my assumption is August-October accuracy has been poor unless it's forecasting warm. My curiosity is if they're every correct when showing cold.
 
SnowNiner said:
Hey Larry, you got any of that magic data on how often cold SE winter forecasts from the seasonal models have been right? I'm open to however many months ahead of time, but my assumption is August-October accuracy has been poor unless it's forecasting warm. My curiosity is if they're every correct when showing cold.
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Let me see what I can find out when I have the chance.
 
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