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Pattern July Fry

I just got my largest one day total at my residence for the year at 1.75 inches near Lake Wheeler and more maybe on the way this evening. Another few days of this will go a long way towards cutting into the rainfall deficit that the past year has given the area.
 
SuperNET said:
Good example of July Fry -

Daily High Temperatures:
July 1: 96°
July 2: 99°
July 3: 100°
July 4: 98°
July 5: 98°
July 6: 94°
July 7: 94°
July 8: 97°
July 9: 97°
July 10: 97°
July 11: 93°
July 12: 92°
July 13: 84°
July 14: 89°
July 15: 95°
July 16: 99°
July 17: 97°
July 18: 96°
July 19: 99

Rainfall: .39"
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July 20: 99

I feel that 20 solid days of ---- weather would close this out - hottest stretch and driest in Monroe in the 26 years I have been here.
 
Brent said:
To get maybe 2 weeks of winter if we're lucky... Yeah it's pretty amazing to think about

I've become the person who tells people online don't get your hopes up about the winter ha
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I want to go all winter without a high under 50 and a low under 40. Cold sucks. Give me 60/40 all winter and I won’t complain one bit.
 
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So that's why I moved to Tulsa I guess ha... Though we had higher heat indexes yesterday. Plenty more extreme heat to come this weekend and next week though! Every time there's a Gulf storm... It never fails here FB_IMG_1784713860641.jpg
 
Rain has now been pushed back to Friday for NESC/SENC. On Sunday night NWS had the area at >40% chance for scattered to widespread every day this week yet it's been dry.

Delayed but not denied?
 
Not buying the rain solution for tomorrow...already pushed a day out...same trends exists. Modeling seems overdone and not accurate. GSP backing down from ledge too...anytime you see that many revisions.. question it...unless its obvious.
 
I had a very impressive ~3.75” July 12-15 at my place, which allowed me to stop irrigation for the time being. However, since then (~one week), I’ve had hardly any.
 
SuperNET said:
Not buying the rain solution for tomorrow...already pushed a day out...same trends exists. Modeling seems overdone and not accurate. GSP backing down from ledge too...anytime you see that many revisions.. question it...unless its obvious.
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More revisions from GSP - looking at cloud cover and radar trends - I dont see the forecast verifying, or coming even close. If you are not directly under a cell or 1000' from it - you get zero. Outside of the cells moving through Virginia - most of that is not even hitting the ground.
 
about as good of a stretch as you can get in late july, even dipping into the 60s.
IMG_3309.jpeg
 
SuperNET said:
More revisions from GSP - looking at cloud cover and radar trends - I dont see the forecast verifying, or coming even close. If you are not directly under a cell or 1000' from it - you get zero. Outside of the cells moving through Virginia - most of that is not even hitting the ground.
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I'm not seeing this working out either. The are pushing precip chances back and lowering them left and right. We "might" get relief in September or October, but not before then.
 
SuperNET said:
More revisions from GSP - looking at cloud cover and radar trends - I dont see the forecast verifying, or coming even close. If you are not directly under a cell or 1000' from it - you get zero. Outside of the cells moving through Virginia - most of that is not even hitting the ground.
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It’s interesting Union isn’t under a flood watch. Probably a quirk of you being on the border of CWAs. RAH just did a blanket watch for all counties. Meanwhile GSP decided to just leave SC out completely for now.

1784757555090.png

Also, apparently you live in SC. 🤷‍♂️
 
looking at satellite and radar data - I see the dynamics at play (for NC); strong NW/SE flow for mid to upper level, followed by SW/NE mostiture flow from bertha (and that flow is just about done and getting crushed by HP over TX) - you think perfect, right? I have seen this validate many times - but not in the current environmental setup. There is something just not right with modeling the atmospheric data, there is no motion at all here except low level cloud debris.
 
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