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Wintry Winter 26-27
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
SnowNiner
Member
Super Nino, pacific firehose.....
NoSnowATL
Member
Please no more snow in Florida. I’m tired of it.
Brent
Member
Yeah I'm not very optimistic due to the super historic el Nino but we'll see
I am struggling to believe we can torch two winters in a row but I dunno... The new normal and all... We did torch 2 falls in a row already...
I am struggling to believe we can torch two winters in a row but I dunno... The new normal and all... We did torch 2 falls in a row already...
Peak this nino in SON, decline it relatively quickly in JFM, print money Jan 20-Mar 20.
Tks
Tks
Nino / -AO combo would be amazing.
1. Having a super-Nino is great news for the prospects to relieve any remaining SE drought Nov-March.
2. The Euro doesn’t peak before Dec, with a record RONI of +3.1 in Dec, which would likely get the SE a firehose of a ST jet/great rainfall overall for much of Nov-Mar:
3. But the CFS peaks earlier (in Nov) way up at record levels for RONI of +3.2C vs current RONI monthly record of +2.7C. And then afterward, the CFS has by far the fastest cooling on record (so I’m taking with a grain, especially because it’s the unreliable CFS) with it plunging to only +2.0 in Jan and +1.5 in Feb:
4. Due to a tendency for models to be a bit too warm with forecasts this far out, it wouldn’t surprise me if the actual RONI monthlies peak in the high +2s instead of low +3s. However, the record warmest RONI month is only +2.7 (1982) and thus a record warmest RONI is likely as of now.
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If this rapid PDO warming were to keep up, the WCS daily PDO would go positive at least for a short period starting by ~this weekend! It’s now up to -0.17 vs -1.40 on May 27th.
The last times this was + were ~5 days in March-April of 2025!
Note that this is the WCS PDO, not the NOAA PDO, which tends to be lower. Regardless, the trend of the WCS PDO is almost always similar to the trend of the NOAA PDO. So, it’s very informative, regardless.
The last times this was + were ~5 days in March-April of 2025!
Note that this is the WCS PDO, not the NOAA PDO, which tends to be lower. Regardless, the trend of the WCS PDO is almost always similar to the trend of the NOAA PDO. So, it’s very informative, regardless.
Lots of rain!
The only thing that can save you from becoming a desert in the SE
, is a raging, apocalyptic El Niño
Gonna be a
winter up here too- AN temps
BN snowfall!
The only thing that can save you from becoming a desert in the SE
, is a raging, apocalyptic El Niño Gonna be a
winter up here too- AN tempsBN snowfall!
I wonder if this is why the cfs has been relatively cold for Feb and March. I haven't seen and euro seasonal images to compare
Probably not a bad thing lol
Sleetisfunbutsnowisgood
Member
Just a early guess. I think we want more of central based instead of east based niño to have a decent chance at some cold and snow this winter.
Can't wait to be disappointed starting 5 or 6 months from now. 
Can't wait to be disappointed starting 5 or 6 months from now.
Drought relieving prospects are about as good as one can expect this far out.
Let's go godzilla modoki
Brent
Member
Well it's certainly been wet here the last couple months. Well see if that continues
Last winter was the driest on record I believe. It's been quite a flip
Last winter was the driest on record I believe. It's been quite a flip
January 1985 or bust(ed pipes)!!
Get this out of the way early:
March 1960 redux
2010 redux incoming
Jan ‘88
Still have low expectations with the gorilla El Niño forming!
March 1960 redux
2010 redux incoming
Jan ‘88
Still have low expectations with the gorilla El Niño forming!
Brent
Member
Get this out of the way early:
March 1960 redux
2010 redux incoming
Jan ‘88
Still have low expectations with the gorilla El Niño forming!
Yeah as much as I'm not feeling it either I will say it would be nice if it snowed in December or March again. It's like winter the last few years has been a few weeks in January and February and that's it. It's true I've seen snow every year I've been here but it just seems like it's been a shorter and shorter window. The fall and spring torching too. That's the trend I want to see end more than anything else
Updated relative weeklies:
Midweek date..1+2…3…3.4…4
29APR2026 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5
06MAY2026 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.5
13MAY2026 1.3 0.6 0.4 0.6
20MAY2026 1.6 0.7 0.5 0.6
27MAY2026 1.7 0.8 0.5 0.7
03JUN2026 2.0 0.9 0.7 0.7
10JUN2026 2.1 1.0 0.9 0.8
17JUN2026 2.4 1.3 1.1 0.8
24JUN2026 2.5 1.5 1.2 0.6
Midweek date..1+2…3…3.4…4
29APR2026 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5
06MAY2026 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.5
13MAY2026 1.3 0.6 0.4 0.6
20MAY2026 1.6 0.7 0.5 0.6
27MAY2026 1.7 0.8 0.5 0.7
03JUN2026 2.0 0.9 0.7 0.7
10JUN2026 2.1 1.0 0.9 0.8
17JUN2026 2.4 1.3 1.1 0.8
24JUN2026 2.5 1.5 1.2 0.6
Curious about the upcoming winter for NC. Reading different things about whether a super 'nino is relatively better for snow here or not. That vs the 'nina we just had. I know cold air is a challenge but moisture won't be.
Personally, i think it depends on whether it is east-based or not.
Brent
Member
The last few have been pretty ugly on the snow front here. I had to go back to the early 70s to find a decent one
But yeah it'll probably be wet for sure. I mean I guess I'd rather have the moisture if I had to pick one shrugs. I mean every time we've been overwhelmed by cold the snow kind of falls flat anyway
But I'm definitely going into it with like no expectations either way
But yeah it'll probably be wet for sure. I mean I guess I'd rather have the moisture if I had to pick one shrugs. I mean every time we've been overwhelmed by cold the snow kind of falls flat anyway
But I'm definitely going into it with like no expectations either way
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Yea the Niño pattern bringing snow just hasn't borne out for decades now. Niña patterns have delivered big and occasionally lasting cold shots getting us to 0F twice in 8 years. The last Niño winter I was literally cutting waterlogged grass the first week in February.
We've had slightly coldish winters the last two Winters, we're definitely probably due unfortunately for a warmer winter.
Brent
Member
It's crazy how different it was over there last winter
I mean if it wasn't for the one week in January it would have been the warmest winter ever here no question
It still almost overcame the fact we dipped below zero because February was so warm. It was crazy
24-25 was a lot colder here
That's one thing I guess... I find it hard to believe it's that warm again here. People are gonna start asking questions if it is haha
I was kind of hoping for a weaker El Nino because that's what happened in 09-10 but yeah that doesn't seem very likely
It's funny to me because all the predictions are usually wrong but this one just feels like the El Nino is so big and historic there's no way it goes wrong shrugs
tennessee storm
Member
Really not going matter. Due to the strength of this one
Really?
SimeonNC
Member
mark my words, we're gonna have a 2+ inch QPF bomb of a storm at some point this winter lmao.
p type is probably gonna be a slopfest for anywhere south of VA/east of the MTNs tho
p type is probably gonna be a slopfest for anywhere south of VA/east of the MTNs tho
tennessee storm
Member
Brent
Member
Haha... Glwt
I would keep my expectations low for now although I have seen a little accumulation every year I've been here(5 years now). Last years big storm was 2 feet on the models and ended up being 8 inches though haha. I've also seen a winter storm warning and not even a white ground...
The big story most years is we get an extremely cold week usually at some point whether it snows or not. Most years have been down near zero here. High of 5 degrees also a couple years ago. It's definitely an experience at some point in the winter usually
What part of Oklahoma
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norman for college! and yeah i’m expecting about the same type of winter as here in nc except colder every once in a while (i’ve never seen below 0 so that would be cool)
Brent
Member
Nice kind of figured once I thought about it haha. The other thing I should prepare you for is the wind... Nothing stops it here haha... It hits a lot different. Y'all are kind of protected in NC by the mountains. There's been quite a few setups where the wind just overpowers the snow honestly
But yeah supposedly we average about 8 inches of snow. There's been a couple years closer to an inch or two already just since I've been here. Last year every flake almost was one storm and then it was 80 degrees like 10 days later and winter was over haha. It can literally be pretty much anything. We had tornadoes at sunrise in January
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lexxnchloe
Member
Brent
Member
sounds fun i can’t wait
I just at this point hope the super El Nino this year doesn't make it worse here but who knows... It's already pretty random haha
But last super El Nino yeah was one of those lower end years and from what I can tell our coldest temperature was only 10 degrees. It's definitely on the warmer side. Not seeing much snow either