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Pattern July Fry

Its kind of crazy how the models have gotten so extreme in that day 6-14 range. EPS mean backing down 5 degrees for July 4th is IMO pretty significant but maybe I am expecting too much. Feels like we have seen this quite a bit since about 2020 where we get these eye popping cold/snow/rain/heat means that gradually regress toward average. I would expect volatility in the ops but the means doing this is weird.
 
ChrisAMB said:
Euro AI really wants to turn on the seabreeze storms in ENC/NESC starting around the 7th or 8th run after run. Not sure if it's reflecting climatology or a real pattern. I don't think we've had any seabreeze storm days yet this year. We've had westerly outflows interact with the seabreeze and blow up into showers but not the pulsing type we'd normally see in summer off the boundary itself as it moves inland.

Even in our worst drought years July seems to pull through at least most of the time. So we shall see.
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Typically these heatwaves tend to breakdown with a bang around here. I remember several pretty nasty severe events occurring when the heatwave breaks.
 
SD said:
Its kind of crazy how the models have gotten so extreme in that day 6-14 range. EPS mean backing down 5 degrees for July 4th is IMO pretty significant but maybe I am expecting too much. Feels like we have seen this quite a bit since about 2020 where we get these eye popping cold/snow/rain/heat means that gradually regress toward average. I would expect volatility in the ops but the means doing this is weird.
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Chaos theory
 
Downeastnc said:
Typically these heatwaves tend to breakdown with a bang around here. I remember several pretty nasty severe events occurring when the heatwave breaks.
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I remember the derecho around this time of year in 2012 being one of those events. It left a trail of damage through the Midwest and caused a few problems in North Carolina too.
 
SD said:
Its kind of crazy how the models have gotten so extreme in that day 6-14 range. EPS mean backing down 5 degrees for July 4th is IMO pretty significant but maybe I am expecting too much. Feels like we have seen this quite a bit since about 2020 where we get these eye popping cold/snow/rain/heat means that gradually regress toward average. I would expect volatility in the ops but the means doing this is weird.
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The GFS seems to be the worse offender more often than not. This insanely over the top 12Z 6/25 GFS 24 hour high temp map ending Friday 7/3 at 8PM with widespread 106-110 for Carolinas/VA (which I never believed and instead downplayed) won’t be soon forgotten by me:

IMG_0870.png

Regardless, this dangerous several day long heatwave still means business, especially SC to Hartford!
 
weather bubba said:
I remember the derecho around this time of year in 2012 being one of those events. It left a trail of damage through the Midwest and caused a few problems in North Carolina too.
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That was one for the ages. I watched it like a hawk until I knew it would stay out of SC. The top gust was 93mph I think near Ft. Wayne Indiana.
 
SD said:
Its kind of crazy how the models have gotten so extreme in that day 6-14 range. EPS mean backing down 5 degrees for July 4th is IMO pretty significant but maybe I am expecting too much. Feels like we have seen this quite a bit since about 2020 where we get these eye popping cold/snow/rain/heat means that gradually regress toward average. I would expect volatility in the ops but the means doing this is weird.
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Yeah, now it’s looking pretty run of the mill here. This may not even be worse than the heat wave in June! A few days ago modeling was indicating we’d set our all-time record high!
 
Ridge is not closed and breaking down by the end of the nam run. It'll be gone before you know it. Unfortunately the quasi trough in the east next week doesn't have a lot of cool weather with it. Then we have to watch for a more classic heat release 2nd half of the month. For those of us that didn't get a lot of rain in June pattern looks decent after the 4th
 
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Arcc said:
One of the coolest things about getting up at 5am consistently is seeing that we have already lost daylight just a week from the solstice.
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Yup that's how it started here too... Technically this is the latest sunset right now through the 4th before it starts going earlier. The morning loss is a lot bigger this month

I work nights so yeah I'm gonna start really noticing it soon
 
YetAnotherRDUGuy said:
I remember back in the day getting to 100 was a big deal around here. Now it seems like it happens once a month.
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Personally, and big knock on wood here- I've been mildly underwhelmed by summers for a long time. I'm not complaining.

Summer of 2025 was the first one in a long time that impressed me. However, that was moreso because of humidity. I remember endless stretches of 94 temps / 75 dews type days.

Summer of 2011 is still king in my book, with 2012 not far behind. I believe Raleigh rattled off an impressive streak of 100+ days that year. That year practically killed off every bentgrass green in Wilmington, and forced a mandatory switch to bermuda grass greens in many golf courses.
 
Ross said:
Personally, and big knock on wood here- I've been mildly underwhelmed by summers for a long time. I'm not complaining.

Summer of 2025 was the first one in a long time that impressed me. However, that was moreso because of humidity. I remember endless stretches of 94 temps / 75 dews type days.

Summer of 2011 is still king in my book, with 2012 not far behind. I believe Raleigh rattled off an impressive streak of 100+ days that year. That year practically killed off every bentgrass green in Wilmington, and forced a mandatory switch to bermuda grass greens in many golf courses.
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Fair enough. Without looking it up I don't remember a lot of big heat waves around here in the 90's, or at least many that hit 100 in central NC. Might be a different case in other regions though, or my memory is wrong.

I get the 2011 and 2012 heat waves mixed up memory wise (both late July if I recall), but yea you're right both had impressive consecutive 100 days for RDU. My flashbulb memory was going to the movies the afternoon on the hottest day of one of those (high temp either 104 or 105) and returning to my car afterwards to see its thermometer at 4pm read some insane reading after being in the middle of a baking parking lot in full sun for a couple of hours. It read like 116 or something. Car thermometers are fun aren't they?
 
Point&click down to “only” 102 Sat and Sun. DPs still in the 60s. Not sure if I should be concerned with brush fires being set off accidently by fireworks or not. Half kidding/half serious on that BTW.
 
YetAnotherRDUGuy said:
Fair enough. Without looking it up I don't remember a lot of big heat waves around here in the 90's, or at least many that hit 100 in central NC. Might be a different case in other regions though, or my memory is wrong.

I get the 2011 and 2012 heat waves mixed up memory wise (both late July if I recall), but yea you're right both had impressive consecutive 100 days for RDU. My flashbulb memory was going to the movies the afternoon on the hottest day of one of those (high temp either 104 or 105) and returning to my car afterwards to see its thermometer at 4pm read some insane reading after being in the middle of a baking parking lot in full sun for a couple of hours. It read like 116 or something. Car thermometers are fun aren't they?
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It always surprises me how much worse RDU can be compared to GSO in the summer, having grown up there. I mean, it’s only a few degrees difference, but it is the difference between multiple 100+ degree days and none at all. I don’t think GSO has his 100 this year?
 
superjames1992 said:
It always surprises me how much worse RDU can be compared to GSO in the summer, having grown up there. I mean, it’s only a few degrees difference, but it is the difference between multiple 100+ degree days and none at all. I don’t think GSO has his 100 this year?
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Averages experiencing one 100 degree day about every 10 years as the crow flies. Red clay doesn't put off heat as much as that sandy coastal plain soil
 
superjames1992 said:
It always surprises me how much worse RDU can be compared to GSO in the summer, having grown up there. I mean, it’s only a few degrees difference, but it is the difference between multiple 100+ degree days and none at all. I don’t think GSO has his 100 this year?
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Agreed. I know you and I both grew up near GSO and now live here so we would know. LOL

I feel like the difference has gotten worse over time, but I'd have to dig deeper. My gut tells me there wasn't as much difference in 100 degree days before the 80s.

I tried to get a quick answer asking AI but it failed btw. (I know, I should have known better) Might do a deep dive later after work though for fun.
 
YetAnotherRDUGuy said:
Agreed. I know you and I both grew up near GSO and now live here so we would know. LOL

I feel like the difference has gotten worse over time, but I'd have to dig deeper. My gut tells me there wasn't as much difference in 100 degree days before the 80s.

I tried to get a quick answer asking AI but it failed btw. (I know, I should have known better) Might do a deep dive later after work though for fun.
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I bet the uptick happened after the rdu sensor broke
 
SD said:
I bet the uptick happened after the rdu sensor broke
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Believe me, I was thinking precisely that.

Been meaning to do analysis of that for awhile. Temp differentiation between GSO/RDU over time, maybe decade intervals? May need to include FAY. Needs to be done. Truth is out there and all that. 🤔 🤔
 
As much as I despise the dense tree cover around my home when the fall leaves cover everything, I do love that MBY is literally five degrees cooler than surrounding observation sites during the heat of the day. 2M above ground under dense shade.
 
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