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March 2026 - Winter or Spring?
- Thread starter packfan98
- Start date
I mean this is the ukmet, so along with Euro AI, interest slightly piqued
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Burrel may have a valid point even though it’s late in the season about the deep snowpack in the NE and associated cold air (mini ice box). Get a well positioned HP to funnel that cold air south with moisture overrunning it, I can see a colder precip scenario unfolding. We’ll have to see how the temps trend along with the precip availability.
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CNCsnwfan1210
Member
A few members on the 12z GEFS are picking up on the idea FWIW. Hrs 132, 138, 144
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Time to go whitewater rafting west side of crest line
Tsappfrog20
Member
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
12z Euro AI showing frozen precip for good chunk of northern NC early Tuesday morning.
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CNCsnwfan1210
Member
12z reg Euro had the frozen precip further north into the mid Atlantic.
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SnowNiner
Member
12z Euro AI showing frozen precip for good chunk of northern NC early Tuesday morning.
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Very typical March threat IMO, marginal and mostly for 40 north.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
SSWE still slated for early March, ECMWF also predicts another weaker event toward late March in today’s run. Long range is skeptical and will change on a dime. Pretty good agreement though for one in about a week.
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SSWE still slated for early March, ECMWF also predicts another weaker event toward late March in today’s run. Long range is skeptical and will change on a dime. Pretty good agreement though for one in about a week.
For now, March still is mild on the same newest EW run in the SE as I assume you saw.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
18z GFS still showing wintry potential for parts of NC Monday night
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WolfpackHomer91
Member
Maybe you’re the problem man. You leave I get 13.5” you go to NY they go to Southern Cali
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iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
I personally think some people are going to be very disappointed by the storm in early march. Not really seeing a way this can give any frozen precip south of VA, and the mountains. But I guess we'll see, the setup GFS is showing is nearly impossible in the middle of winter, and climo is certainly way less favorable in march, especially when relying on CADs.
trackersacker
Member
@LukeBarrette after this winter you will never complain again ever
I mean, I don't think anyone has their hopes up for it enough to get disappointed.
I think he's still below average for snowfall this winter (although maybe not after this upcoming system). It's easy to forget how much snowfall Blacksburg averages (they're north and have superior elevation), though I think they've also gotten a lot of smaller events this year, so it's snowed pretty frequently.
trackersacker
Member
Yeah I’m just joking
Anecdotally, it really does seem like it's been snowing there constantly this winter, though.
It has Flaked a lot this winter, way above normal. At GSO it has occurred on 8-9 separate occasions ( lost count).Anecdotally, it really does seem like it's been snowing there constantly this winter, though.
Now only one really amounted to anything accumulation wise. But consider the anomaly. Yes we can and have seen 6-8 frozen precip events per year on a good year. Including flurries and Ice of all sorts. Thats not to abnormal
But it is very very rare for all of them, except one to be be pure snow. Usually it would be the opposite. All except one would be a mixed bag/ ice. This has been a stellar winter. I need to tally it up, but for the 90 days of met winter, pretty sure Greensboro will have averaged 60-70 % of the days Below Normal in the means. That to me is how you really should gauge if its been a cold winter or not. Instead of just looking at the overall means average for all 3 months and dividing by 3 for your answer. You get 50% plus of your days in D,J,F to average Below normal, that's a win down south. Icing on cake is 200% + of annual snowfall/ sleet accums.
Edit: Went and Checked: @ GSO Total days Below Normal:
Dec = 21
Jan = 16
Feb = 14
So we should end up 51 of the 90 days of winter Below Normal: So 56.66 %
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For comparison sake: Everyone chalks up the winter of 83 as one of the coldest: For good reason; Here's how that shook out cumulatively at GSO:
Below Normal days:
D = 15
J = 22
F = 20
Total days Below Normal 57 out of the 90 Days: 63.3 %
Below Normal days:
D = 15
J = 22
F = 20
Total days Below Normal 57 out of the 90 Days: 63.3 %
Brent
Member
Haha I know I was quite shocked he's still below normal on snowfall but maybe they average more snow than I thought
Oh and if it snows in March here I'll be stunned at this point. Hasn't been one flake in February even hundreds of miles north of me
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NCHighCountryWX
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Hard to find a good mechanism to get out of the upcoming warm pattern. No momentum added to the pac jet, we may see this pattern double down around day 10 where it starts dropping troughs down the WC into the 4 corners. Warmest march ever for some sites in the eastern US doesn't seem impossible.
Bigedd09
Member
March winter or spring? More like march spring or summer. Some legit heat is cooking up
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
this is fairly anecdotal but i feel like i have seen the AIFS be too wedge-y in the med-long range more than once. Still present obviously but that is a pretty major sensible wx diff on monday.
Check out 1976-7, 1977-8, and 2009-10, the Kings of cold winters for the SE for the last 50 years+. I counted 63-69 days at GSO 3 or more BN there out of 90!
broken025
Member
GFS trying to set up an ice storm before the big warm up before the big cool down.
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
Not even a hint of cold the first half of March for my area. There will probably be another cool spell somewhere with a freeze but most of these temps are more typical for late April/early May. Likely headed for a very early pollen season and leaf out with this look.
Tsappfrog20
Member
Ah yes. The annual “ice in March” fantasy run.
Wowza. Yea my new metric for weighing whether its been a quote unquote cold winter or not, is just simply going to be the amount of time percentage wise we spend Below Normal v/s Above Normal over the 90 day Met winter stretch.
Hope I remember the years you just checked out , come next autumn when we are all pre-season prognosticating. I Know we are headed toward El Nino winter, but I swear the past 15 years we get way more colder shots up here in the upper SE with La Nina than El Nino. Espeacilly with weak La nina 's.
El nino caps the high temps with all the clouds, but also holds up the low temps more due to more clouds . Don't seem to get as much of that true , lung refreshing artic air to inhale on.
shortstopsergio
Member
Ugh.. so ready for severe weather season. Hope there’s some good storms to track this year in North Georgia
Meh, analogs don’t work out for cold and snow, why would they for severe? Guess time will tell!
Seems to. E a recurring theme! Wedges and cold when it does no good for wintry weather and hurts chances for the severeToday’s Euro Bleaklies are the bleakest of bleak if you prefer a cool March and early April.
