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March 2026 - Winter or Spring?

We are probably going to get the opportunity to see if cold can actually overwhelm the pattern the 2nd half of the month. There's going to be just about a full dump of cold off the pole into north America but the pattern as a whole doesn't favor cold in the east
 
This isn’t a great place to post this. But since we understandably don’t yet have a winter ‘26-7 thread, I think this is the best place for now:

Although we have to take the new CANSIPS run for with a huge grain with it being so far out, it’s at least encouraging from my perspective to see this for two reasons:

-decent chance at a much less active hurricane season ACE vs recent years in 2026

**-next winter’s E US cold potential

Regarding next winter, the run for Jan 2027 is colder in practically the entire lower 48 vs the run from one year ago for Jan of 2026.
Current 2m run for Jan ‘27…N America has the largest and most intense area of BN on globe (and vs 1981-2010 to boot) and is slightly colder than last month’s run:
IMG_8597.png

One year ago’s 2m run for Jan of ‘26…sig. warmer than new run for Jan ‘27:
IMG_8596.png

Also, SE precip for Jan ‘27 is mainly AN, which is consistent with moderate or stronger El Niño climo:
IMG_8600.png
 
Last edited:
SD said:
We are probably going to get the opportunity to see if cold can actually overwhelm the pattern the 2nd half of the month. There's going to be just about a full dump of cold off the pole into north America but the pattern as a whole doesn't favor cold in the east
Click to expand...
Who wants cold weather. Especially this time year lol
 
SD said:
We are probably going to get the opportunity to see if cold can actually overwhelm the pattern the 2nd half of the month. There's going to be just about a full dump of cold off the pole into north America but the pattern as a whole doesn't favor cold in the east
Click to expand...

I was just telling someone earlier I'm not convinced winter is over yet... Ha

It's been way too easy this year
 
The current drought throughout the SE US is serious business! In my area, for example, the last 6 months’ 9.38” were in the aggregate at KSAV the driest Sept-Feb since way back in 1931-2 (though 1931-2 was much drier) and were <50% of the 1991-2020 avg of 19.74”!

Driest Sept-Feb KSAV on record:

6.52” 1931-2
6.64” 1917-8
7.78” 1901-2
9.04” 1906-7
9.06” 1889-90
9.38” 2025-6
9.44” 2001-2
9.55” 1940-1

19.74” 30 yr avg
 
GaWx said:
This isn’t a great place to post this. But since we understandably don’t yet have a winter ‘26-7 thread, I think this is the best place for now:

Although we have to take the new CANSIPS run for with a huge grain with it being so far out, it’s at least encouraging from my perspective to see this for two reasons:

-decent chance at a much less active hurricane season ACE vs recent years in 2026

**-next winter’s E US cold potential

Regarding next winter, the run for Jan 2027 is colder in practically the entire lower 48 vs the run from one year ago for Jan of 2026.
Current 2m run for Jan ‘27…N America has the largest and most intense area of BN on globe (and vs 1981-2010 to boot) and is slightly colder than last month’s run:
View attachment 194638

One year ago’s 2m run for Jan of ‘26…sig. warmer than new run for Jan ‘27:
View attachment 194639

Also, SE precip for Jan ‘27 is mainly AN, which is consistent with moderate or stronger El Niño climo:
View attachment 194640
Click to expand...
I am all aboard next winter. It may be the one that bucks the trend of recent underwhelming ninos
 
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