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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1

CyclonicFury said:
And then you have Raleigh which never has a 10 inch winter in 20+ years, just like NC State hasn't had a 10 win season in 20+ years. Just like under Dave Doeren, they never win anything big.
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I mean you’re not wrong, my father used to say…”Son eventually the sun shines on every dogs ass at some point” maybe it was just our day


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rburrel2 said:
I wish I could describe to you guys what that snow squall was like yesterday. I’ve got some theories on why it was so instense at my location. But I think these pictures do it justice.
In picture 1: you are looking at the end of my driveway/treeline which is 120 yards away during the most intense snowfall from the main band, the meat of of the storm, I would have described this as heavy snow.. it produced more than one inch in an hour and this was the heaviest part of it. Video taken at 10:35am, notice how bright it is.

In picture 2 and 3: you’re looking at the same exact location at the end of my driveway, 120 yards away. This was during the squall… it was insane! Also had 40mph gusts, and almost black out dark conditions at 12:05pm. It was complete weenie euphoria for me.

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Those are impressive images burrell. What did you see on radar? Guess it was just a heavy band? Did it kind of form right on top of you?
 
I'd say we've got about 95% snow coverage still on non-paved surfaces. The exceptions are south facing hills that are under trees...I guess a lot of snow got caught up in the trees above and so the areas underneath the trees had less snow. Pretty interesting even though it was a dry snow. Roadways are hit-and-miss. Treated roads tend to be okay, but the untreated roads are snowy/icy in shaded areas. It will certainly be icy in the morning.

Pretty sure we are going to lose a lot of sunny spots tomorrow.
 
griteater said:
Those are impressive images burrell. What did you see on radar? Guess it was just a heavy band? Did it kind of form right on top of you?
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It was a very thin band on radar, but it was racing really quickly from northeast to south west. I think it had something to do with the just above the surface convergence zone that manifested as a result of the meso low stuff that cranked around the mountain chain.

Those streamers that developed over the upstate later on were sorta mini-low level convergence zones/bands… but I was in-between the development of those two bands and basically it was sorta like an exploding “bow echo” that pushed out before forming the bands on either side. So it lasted only a couple minutes for me but it was extremely intense, specifically at the surface/low levels. To where the more stationary bands formed on each side of it lasted hours, but weren’t as intense.

That’s my theory anyways.
 
Updated totals map from ILM. That 16" is Tabor City. Looks like Loris came in at 14" and it drops off quickly south from there. Out here slightly further west that 14" seems reasonable but measurement was difficult.
 

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tazaroo said:
I took a drone video of and around my house and neighborhood. We picked up right at 12in before the compacting. Just a little more than Asheboro itself 4 miles South of me. I know other states are involved so sorry for the biased name lol.

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Great job. I enjoyed that neighbor. Uwharries are beatifull. Not the blue ridge, but as close as you can get without being there. Stole a screenshot from your video.


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NCSNOW said:
Great job. I enjoyed that neighbor. Uwharries are beatifull. Not the blue ridge, but as close as you can get without being there. Stole a screenshot from your video.
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Thanks, that's one of the I reasons I chose this location. Love the mountain look. Its Back Creek Mountain. The Northern most section of the Uwharrries along with Caraway.
 
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Photo dump of riding through western Wilson county this morning


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Webberweather53 said:
My preliminary analysis for this storm over NC.

Hopefully, I can find some time later this week to knock out SC, because this literally took me all day to do

Thanks for all the reports everyone.

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Thanks Eric, you do a superb job documenting these winter storms along with your analysis. Also, thanks for your hard work in putting this together gathering snowfall reports from around the state. This storm will be remembered for many many years to come.


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Webberweather53 said:
My preliminary analysis for this storm over NC.

Hopefully, I can find some time later this week to knock out SC, because this literally took me all day to do 😅

Thanks for all the reports everyone.

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my immediate take is that there's not a chance in hell any model was going to nail this. the two trends i noticed in the leadup were the raleigh hole as well as down east getting clobbered. for everything else it was 4-8, localized foot, let the cards fall where they may
 
Euro did a great job catching the potential in the long range. All the globals and NAM pretty much sucked with specific totals more than a couple of days out, and even then the Euro was the only one close to what happened. The HRRR and 3K NAM did a good job with the dry slot showing 12 to 24 hours out.
 
Pup12 said:
Did Florida get those ocean effect snows they were talking about?
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Definitely saw flurry reports around Tampa and down in Naples. Not sure anywhere got legit snowfall rates, but still a rarity down there.
 
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