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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1

For the Wilmington/SENC heads. I am putting on the hat for my old display name and becoming ilmross this weekend. Leaving for town to stay with mom and dad after work. Goal is to make it to Islands on Racine in time for the dollar taco special. Tomorrow I have visions of PT's and visiting Wrightsville Beach Brewery for their Kolsch Krush, perhaps my favorite beer ever.

I believe we are in for a real treat. The bar for Wilmington is low. We have racked up shafts and underperformances. Haven't hit 5 inches since 1989. It's a glass ceiling. Strong chance we break it this particular weekend.

I do think Saturday will be a trip. Starting as sleet/mix before lower heights really push their way in. Being so close to the coast/coastal convection, i think thundersnow is totally on the table. Most CAMs have spotty (but intense) precip before filling in Saturday evening. While I'm hoping for more consistent returns, this makes sense.

I think Allan Huffman's call of 3-7 with high bust potential is perfect. I may lean moreso 4-9. I am confident that Market street will be in OK enough shape to get my subaru to the promised land (i40) on Sunday. I'm pumped.
 
ATLien said:
Even the models showing 2 inches or so in the city are barely getting the precipitation into eastern Fulton County. You're right about the western suburbs, and the hope is things shift west for all of us as the day goes on. Decent trend on the HRRR at least.
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As it stands now, It will not be that simple with this set up and model specifics are not the best thing in ATL to look at right now. The accumulations in the metro will likely vary greatly depending on where heavier bands of snow set up. Do not focus on exact lines. Downtown v. 15 miles E/W on I-20 are virtually the same at this point, within the normal margin of error in regular storms,
 
Tsappfrog20 said:
Allan Huffman Updated Map
151dde4180bb85334d5295d7720a6f89.png



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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That A zone keeps moving west.
 
wow said:
NAM much better with the meso-low precip.. got a low popping off the SC coast.. that would really change things. All about the how quickly the ULL wraps in.
View attachment 191752
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I noticed the low popping off the SC coast as well. Thinking the ULL drove a little further south, causing the atlantic low to pop further south. Thoughts?
 
So Raleigh can either get 0-10" of snow based on the 3 cams... So now It's pick your favorite CAM...all 3 different...I said yesterday I was riding the 3km...that isn't comforting.

Note, I am using 10:1 as FV doesn't have kuchera on the site I use.

3km - less than 1"
FV - 6"
12km - 6-12"

cams.gif
 
KyloG said:
So Raleigh can either get 0-10" of snow based on the 3 cams... So now It's pick your favorite CAM...all 3 different...I said yesterday I was riding the 3km...that isn't comforting.

Note, I am using 10:1 as FV doesn't have kuchera on the site I use.

3km - less than 1"
FV - 6"
12km - 6-12"

View attachment 191760
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I would go with what the majority of models are showing, not just the worst outcome, but that's just me.
 
BrickTamland said:
I would go with what the majority of models are showing, not just the worst outcome, but that's just me.
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Actually...that's a good point. 3km is the clear outlier, can't argue that. The FV3 is kind of the middle of the road. Let's see what the RGEM shows.
 
Ron Burgundy said:
I’m about 10 miles ENE of you and hoping I get to ride that wave too
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I would think if it makes it this far west, you'll get in that band on the way here and on the way out. Who knows, perhaps even what it's showing is underdone. 2009 keeps dancing in my head.
 
FV3's precip depiction honestly seems a little more realistic. Just hard for me to fathom what the 06z Euro and 12z 3km NAM showed actually happening. If it did, all faith in weather forecasters in this area is going to be destroyed after last weekend, too. :(
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
I would think if it makes it this far west, you'll get in that band on the way here and on the way out. Who knows, perhaps even what it's showing is underdone. 2009 keeps dancing in my head.
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It’s been surprising how consistent the Athens area has been under those bands on almost every single model
 
beanskip said:
NWS Tampa office really going to have to address this Gulf effect snow being modeled by the 3K NAM -- 12z run shows a strip of 2 inch Kuchera accums (gulp!) from Pasco County down into Hillsborough. Would obviously be historic.
View attachment 191772
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They talked a little bit about it in their discussion, but they aren't showing snow in their forecast.

I've seen some Florida people show their futurecast and what not show some snow down that way too.
 
LukeBarrette said:
Radar filling in here, still feels like there is some dry air to work through. Already more medium sized flakes then the first few hours of snow falling from last storm. DGZ depth matters!
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rduwx said:
I would think that's what we've been calling the Bermuda low. It moves east from there. I wish that wasn't there. A lot of the models have shown this affecting our atlantic low that will be forming tomorrow.
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i'll go with foe for now then. i personally can't wait to watch some bouy data later i'm guessing 41004 is one to watch.

NDBC - Station 41004 Recent Data

National Data Buoy Center - Recent observations from buoy 41004 (32.502N 79.099W) - EDISTO - 41 NM Southeast of Charleston, SC.
www.ndbc.noaa.gov www.ndbc.noaa.gov
 
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