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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1

iGRXY said:
Anybody relying on the NAM still even though we are about 24 hours from the event starting are putting a ton of faith in a very risky basket. I mean it snows at my house 18 hours and I get barely an inch on the NAM. It stinks
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Yeah, I think over the next two runs it will lock in. The more correct precip shield. We go through this with every storm, although with the dynamics involved here there may indeed be some splotchy snow accumulations.
 
iGRXY said:
Anybody relying on the NAM still even though we are about 24 hours from the event starting are putting a ton of faith in a very risky basket. I mean it snows at my house 18 hours and I get barely an inch on the NAM. It stinks
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I would buy the NAM more if globals and especially the Euro where making shifts towards it, instead of shifting away from it if anything.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I’m about to the point where I’m going to lean hard into the high res models, especially if I see that warm front there Saturday morning out east over the next 12z and 18z runs
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Yeah, definitely some differences for the Eastern half of the Carolinas on the modeling. If we get that warmth you’ve been showing and any slight nw trend or strengthening, those areas can really produce. I’m interested in hearing your thoughts and seeing your updated map as the day goes on. Thanks for your contributions!
 
Webberweather53 said:
The only area that’s staying consistent ish is back over the upstate and around Charlotte to just west of there where you have the mesolow and upper low forcing together. That’s why I went bullish yesterday on my forecast
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Yep, I agree. I think when all is said and done, we see the bullseye will be somewhere in that area you highlighted yesterday.
 
rburrel2 said:
I would buy the NAM more if globals and especially the Euro where making shifts towards it, instead of shifting away from it if anything.
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Yeah, I think those of us to the west of Raleigh to the coast are focused on the fact that the NAM has NO focus on the ULL. The RGEM for example does hit NC the hardest, but folks outside of NC would be pretty happy with the exact result it suggests…
 
One reason the Euro rakes the upstate is b/c the 5h low actually deepens the most as it descends from TN in to Georgia. After that, it actually weakens it a bit as it exits the coast.

Lends reason to believe maybe the upstate does get absolutely raked tomorrow, I dunno. I'll be happy with 3 inches, but the door is definitely open for more.
 
rburrel2 said:
WOW, guys.... that's the difference. Check out the deepending of the 5h low on the NAM as it exits the coast...

then check out the weakening of the 5h low as it exits the coast on the Euro.

There's your difference in solutions.
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Why fixate on the NAM when hrrr and other high res models showed similar things? Obviously varied of course.
 
This is the part in every storm when people start heading for the cliffs. I think heavier and lighter rates will change throughout the storm, I doubt any one location is going to get dry slotted for long periods just like no one location is going to get dumped on for long either. These are things the CAMS can’t even figure out much less the globals let’s be honest
 
rburrel2 said:
Because they represent the two extremes. Just trying to figure out what's going, and see if we can tell which way it's leaning on the hourly models as they come out.
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Which when you have two extremes like that, wouldn’t safe bet be to expect the middle ground?
 
rburrel2 said:
Check out the 5h low on the NAM compared to the Euro here... NAM strengthens it... euro weakens it... that's everything for the Eastern, NC.
View attachment 191678View attachment 191680
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Good find. Also on the EPS here, there has been a bit of a trend to more positive tilt with the wave - seen best from E PA up to south of Maine as the 50/50 low is continuing to press down a bit more. Not a showstopper, but the trend has influence

IMG_4773.gif
 
Chazwin said:
Which when you have two extremes like that, wouldn’t safe bet be to expect the middle ground?
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You would think that..... However, I believe this time it will be one or the other. One thing is certain; we will know later today which solution is going to play out. I sincerely hope there is a path for everyone to benefit here.
 
KyloG said:
What is going on with the Euro…never seen models so drastically different inside 24 hours. I don’t know what to expect.




View attachment 191687
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It’s either very right and leading the way or completely wrong with the dynamics. It’s hard to bet against it, but it’s had some poor performances with regards to precip amounts. I just don’t know. We will find out soon enough.
 
The reason the EURO has been flippy towards the coast is because there's more that has to go right for your snow to happen with the formation of the coastal and it's location which goes back to the ULL itself. The EURO has been very consistent in the Western Carolinas because really our snow is driven by location of the ULL and generally the strength of it as well as the 850 meso low that really gets the lee side deform banding going. Further east you need all of the same plus you're worried about the tilt of the trough more and things like your surface low formation and track. Things like the Bahama LP plays a factor in that. Basically there's less things that have to go right for the western carolinas to snow. Which is also why I just don't think the NAM is right. In order for the coast back towards central NC to snow you need a stronger and further west ULL that pops the surface low further to the south and west and cranks the WAA. If the NAM's location and strength of the ULL was right we all are pretty much getting screwed, not just the upstate.
 
packfan98 said:
It’s either very right and leading the way or completely wrong with the dynamics. It’s hard to bet against it, but it’s had some poor performances with regards to precip amounts. I just don’t know. We will find out soon enough.
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Geez…this has been the least fun event to track in my lifetime. I would rather be worried about temps/mixing then having to watch this.

Can’t help but laugh.
IMG_5642.gif
 
Ross said:
I know this is the new young king or whatever

But at this point I side with the CAMs
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We done with the globals at this point? They haven’t been consistent that’s for sure.
 
KyloG said:
Geez…this has been the least fun event to track in my lifetime. I would rather be worried about temps/mixing then having to watch this.

Can’t help but laugh.
View attachment 191693
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I think you are still getting easily 3-6 inches in the Triangle IMO

Euro is litteraly on an island and flip floping like a fish out the water
 
Good read form RAH on the dynamics here in central and eastern NC


Conditions should rapidly deteriorate Sat morning as the anomalous
deep trough for this latitude begins to close over the southern
Appalachians. Moist isentropic ascent will become deeper/stronger
through the morning and into the evening resulting in more
widespread light snowfall. Areas of moderate to heavy snowfall
appear likely to develop where an H850 FGEN band strengthens
over the Carolinas. Where this develops will likely be the first
of two potential significant areas of precipitation, but even
at this time range, models are struggling with its
placement/magnitude. The general consensus appears to be
somewhere near the NC/SC border and arcing generally northeast
into portions of central NC. Where this initially develops may
be very slow moving and produce an area of 8-12 inches of
snowfall through Sat evening within a larger area of 3-7 inches.

By Sat evening, intense lift is expected to reach the Gulf Stream
and rapidly deepen a broad area of low pressure just off the NC
coast in a instant occlusion surface low pattern. This is when the
H850 FGEN band is expected to shift more rapidly eastward and pivot
into a north-south orientation within the H850 cold conveyor belt.
Where this sets up, probably along and-or-east of the I-95 corridor
towards the Carolina coast, remains uncertain. This area will likely
result in another maximum of snow amounts where 10-12+ inches will
be most probable. Whether this occurs in our area or not is
difficult to say and depends on how rapidly the low off the coast
deepens, slow development would keep this axis farther inland.
Also during this time, sustained winds of 20 mph and gusts 25
to 35 mph will likely create blowing and drifting snow,
especially along and east of I-95 corridor, and may reduce
visibility to less than 1 mile. Brief blizzard conditions can
not be ruled out. Sporadic power outages may also occur, but
high SLR should limit accumulations in trees and prevent this
from being a larger concern.
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