NBAcentel
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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
NBAcentel
Member
Rgem coming in hot 
WolfpackHomer91
Member
Yea, I do feel like we’re kind of drifting back towards some of those big dog runs from Tuesday though if coastal keeps popping. Be cool if it could pop on the coast even 75 miles would help us a ton to get both ULL AND Coastal
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NBAcentel
Member
RGEM final amounts 
Cad Wedge NC
Member
That looks realistic and more in line with other guidance.
The difference between the 00z and 06z NAM/3km is astounding in Central NC. With more costal influence, that is where the boom potential lies. I also noticed the UL feature did not dig south as much on the 6z runs, at least it appears that way.
bud006
Member
Waking up to see a Winter Storm Warning for my location for 2-4” of snow and 35 mph winds, six days after an Ice Storm Warning. What an end of January!
Anxiously awaiting the AFD from FFC. Not published yet on the app or the webpage.
—30—
Anxiously awaiting the AFD from FFC. Not published yet on the app or the webpage.
—30—
JQPublic
Member
Winter Storm Warning for all of central N.C. now.
GFS has had significant movements with the coastal but has remained pretty steady on the ULL
TigerSnow
Member
I’m more concerned the NAM is firing warning shots and losing some of the ULL and turning this more into a coastal.
NAM is on an island. Not sure if coastal & ULL type stuff is in its wheel house either. I respect the NAM more so with sniffing out a warm nose in an overrunning event. But if it shows it again mid morning, it’ll have my attention more. It’s going back & forth currently.
Edward Nygma
Member
GFS AI figuring out Coastal, but it’s taking moisture from the West. It would suck if some how at the last day these two features figure out a way to NOT coexist. Gonna need this movement to stop next cycle. 
TigerSnow
Member
Looks like more of a shift or the dry a lot forming further west over my area. I guess this has always been a possibility, especially if we lose some of the ULL influence.
TigerSnow
Member
I think it’s always been in the table. I can remember storms doing this when the energy transfers to the coastal.
Edward Nygma
Member
The biggest development I see is the surface low is now forming along the Gulf Stream where an incredible baroclinic zone resides between the Arctic air mass and the warm water there.
Brandon10
Member
Anyone have the 2am Weathernext?
Tsappfrog20
Member
Hopefully it will work it’s out for you and us! I don’t want to steal from you brother
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Yeh we got work to do today perking these numbers back up. Ain't no way we going to do something diabolical the day before the storm. We've been steady all week for the most part.
Not to try to wake everyone up with bad vibes. Hopefully the Euro & AI hold serve here shortly.
NBAcentel
Member
I personally think we are fine. If other short term modeling head towards the NAM then I can understand the worry, but the NAM hasn’t been consistent at all, and it’s already been known to be lackluster QPF wise in the past, badly in some cases
a_gilmore88
Member
Model consensus really seems to be honing in on 6-10” for mby. Every source except Brad P has us in that range including who I would consider the best forecaster I’ve seen, Eric Webb. Brad probably would have us somewhere similar but he’s terrified of the dry air intrusion, which is understandable.
As for the morning model runs, we wouldn’t be banking on the NAM if it was the only one showing what we wanted. No reason to do so in the other direction now.
As for the morning model runs, we wouldn’t be banking on the NAM if it was the only one showing what we wanted. No reason to do so in the other direction now.
Tokenfreak
Member
CHS bumping there totals up…
Yeh man, but shifts like this scare the weather family on the Southern flank of this. I am sure it's got NC grinning. But anyways, I am to emotionally involved in this one for a rug pull so my negativity is oozing to the surface a bit.
Tsappfrog20
Member
I completely agree I think you guys are still in a good spot I do like how the models have gotten the coastal more involved in order to get the Triangle firmly in the game
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Oconeexman
Member
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Yea if the Nam leads the way SC is hosed...Will have to watch Rdu get buried again while we get a dusting...typical ULL stuff in nw sc. I think you good either way tho
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
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swell
Bigedd09
Member
I think everyone back west in the Carolina’s may be overreacting a bit. We are in a solid spot. Even if we get 0.3 to 0.4 QPF that’s still a good storm
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rburrel2
Member
There's still so much uncrtainty around Raleigh, it's crazy. Still not sure how the qpf is going to evolve up there. The euro was great for them, but seems suspicious with the dry slot along the NC tidewater area.
00z Hrrr was a tad more dry that i'd like for my area, but otherwise was a great run for pretty much everybody, I'd cash that in right now for sure.
I think we can safely ignore the NAM products for now, they're on an island.
00z Hrrr was a tad more dry that i'd like for my area, but otherwise was a great run for pretty much everybody, I'd cash that in right now for sure.
I think we can safely ignore the NAM products for now, they're on an island.
Brandon10
Member
Yeah im getting a little anxious on coast. Seems heavier bands shifting slightly west and a dry slots along the Pamlico...even though the coast will be closer to the Low
rburrel2
Member
Both the Euro and GFS have a minima of around .11 qpf around Wilmington, NC. Ouch.
Shaggy
Member
Yeah not sure what that's about. Rgem and 3k still give me a good hit.
packfan98
Moderator
Latest National Blend of Models
rburrel2
Member
Somebody in Eastern NC is gonna get minima'd. Who is anyone's guess right now. Favoring that far Southeastern corner of NC right now I guess.
That can still wind up as 7-8”.
packfan98
Moderator
Latest NWS predictions. Lowered quite a bit on the Boom and Bust maps. Last night my area was 5-19”. Now it’s 1-12”. I believe that the triangle area and east should get bumped up more today. Triad might win the dry slot award??? 
packfan98
Moderator
No. More like 1-2”. The further east areas won’t be getting as high ratios as areas further west.
rburrel2
Member
For sure. I'm not sure I buy that maxima around Raleigh at the expense of the coastal precip shield. It's clearly on the table though. What's weird is the NC tidewater seemed like the safest place for 6+ inches... and all of a sudden it's not.