WxBlue
Meteorologist
Shocking this isn't a blizzard warning. Would be a slam dunk.
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Shocking this isn't a blizzard warning. Would be a slam dunk.
NBAcentel
Member
can see hints of a deformation band associated with the closed off ULL there over the Piedmont and triad. Coastal starting to crank and throw moisture back towards RDU 
yes
look at that bottom graphic. Lighting up across the upstate
NBAcentel
Member
Hrrr setting up a nuke band for Raleigh, absolutely sick looking 
NBAcentel
Member
Final (still going in ENC) 
I got a foot on the 06z HRRR. Best HRRR run I've seen yet.
EDIT: Deleted the map since @NBAcentel ninja'd me, hah!
EDIT: Deleted the map since @NBAcentel ninja'd me, hah!
WxBlue
Meteorologist
06z HRRR is an all-timer. Holy crap. Foot plus from Charlotte to OBX with 18" isolated.
Last edited:
03z SREF mean nukes @BrickTamland's house. Probably over a foot on the mean with ratios (this is a 10:1 map). Kill Devil Hills is the technical jackpot, seemingly, though (with Moyock just behind).
WxBlue
Meteorologist
Isn't this 3 hours before the end?
Thanks for catching that! I didn't realize the radar panels were not loaded for hr 48 yet in my excitement! I replaced it with the hr 48 panel (which still has snow to Hillsborough).
- Joined
- Jan 23, 2021
- Messages
- 4,438
- Reaction score
- 14,530
- Location
- Lebanon Township, Durham County NC
6z NAM is gonna smoke the triangle
06z NAM is crushing Raleigh. Huge changes.
NBAcentel
Member
That’ll do it. Mid level warm front trending north. Wonder how far this goes 
- Joined
- Jan 23, 2021
- Messages
- 4,438
- Reaction score
- 14,530
- Location
- Lebanon Township, Durham County NC
Bigedd09
Member
Bigedd09
Member
Also, as expected the precip filled in back west quite a bit compared to last run
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
- Joined
- Jan 23, 2021
- Messages
- 4,438
- Reaction score
- 14,530
- Location
- Lebanon Township, Durham County NC
Half a foot of snow here before sunrise
NBAcentel
Member
The further north it goes the more widespread and intense the initial precipitation is gonna be
Yeah, concerning for SE NC and NE SC who are dealing with a lot of P-type issues that aren’t expected. Warm nose always wins? Hopefully not for their sake, although one man’s trash is another man’s treasure.
RDU and down into the Sandhills have a foot by 10am on Saturday.
Bigedd09
Member
It’s coming together everyone!
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
NBAcentel
Member
still think the NAMs are to dry here, especially for the western areas, where the precip is driven off mid-upper level forcing and the meso-low. I’m sure it’ll come around
Packsox03
Member
Dry bias since the update
Yeah, as great as this run is for the Triangle, it’s a disaster for Charlotte. Seems unlikely.
Bigedd09
Member
NAM has really been taking off with the costal low and was very weak with the upper low for areas back west. Interesting trends that may cut totals back west
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Nerman
Member
NBAcentel
Member
That’s a strange one… something seems off here 
Bigedd09
Member
Not saying this just because it’s better for my area, but I’d much rather have the rgem on my side than the NAM. But that’s just imo. We shall see what the RGEM shows here in a little while
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
NBAcentel
Member
Packsox03
Member
It’s still dry on the precip is the crazy thing. 39 hours of snow for Raleigh and 15 inches on kuchera?? If it actually snows that long (it won’t) we’re pushing 2 feet probably
NBAcentel
Member
Have a feeling this is about to fill in to match consensus 
WolfpackHomer91
Member
Yea not a fan of how we’ve started to go back to the Dominant Coastal weaker ULL look Fro….. we can’t score from that back our way
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
NBAcentel
Member
But it’s strange how most other modeling makes it work with both except for the NAMs. Something to keep a eye on I guess
WxBlue
Meteorologist
"For the event, WPC probabilities for at least 8 inches of snow are >50% from the Blue Ridge/Smokeys eastward across most of NC and half of SC and along the VA/NC border. Eastern NC has the highest chances (30-50%) of at least a foot of snow, depending on and band placement. For context, some locations may see snowfall amounts not seen since the 1970s/1980s (e.g., Feb. 1973, March 1980, or Dec. 1989) and could be a top ten event snowfall."
Quote from WPC
Quote from WPC
Packsox03
Member
The 06z ICON is headed towards another crushjob, similar to the 00z run.