one reason the nam 3k totals are so low using kuchera is the fact that the nam is 5-7° warmer than consensus lol. literally has the piedmont west of charlotte at like 28-30 the entire time the heavy snow is falling. was also the warmest model last week so take that into consideration.
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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1
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LovingGulfLows
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3KM NAM reflects these super impresssive precip shields then output the most unimpressive QPF totals. It's really weird.
disassociated_vort
Member
fully aware this is a different season, background conditions, impacts, different nearly everything. seeing the models in the 24h leading up to Chantal. followed by nearly 12" of rain being dropped overhead with a lot of that coming in a fateful 3 hour timeframe seeing these 18"+ percentages rise through the day and the consistency of these NBM snowfall maps and various models putting out insane snow totals is giving me some Vibes. like what if they are right!?!?!?RAH smells something here. They’re in on this coming a bit west.
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noting the eastern Piedmont\western Coastal Plain dryer slot' on Webber's first call map and that RAH has generally been talking lower totals in the discussions today than yesterday. as much as i don't wanna be stuck at home for 5-7 days i'll take 18" and i'll take 5" either way i doubt i'm working next week.
since i posted a OPC surface forecast last night i'll follow up with their latest from earlier today which has that Bahamas low, tight pressure gradient & loaded with bombastic terminology and fun symbols that i can't discern.
BrickTamland
Member
NAM and 3K both cranking in NC.
SnowDeac
Member
This is gonna be the kiss of death. Short range models not looking near as promising so far!
iGRXY
Member
We aren’t in their range yet
3k has pulled the coastal low back a good 200 miles SW since it's 12z run.
Did we get any total maps from the 3k NAM? Curious since you said it was smoking the upstate.
Can you drop some maps Brick?
HailCore
Member
I was just remarking at that. As many have pointed out, the temps are somewhat reducing the kuchera ratios, but with the reflectivity and relatively moist air/small dry layer to overcome, those totals would probably be 1.5 to 2 times what is shown there if that expansive precip shield actually formed.
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FV3 is an easy foot here
If you watched the FFC briefing today, this is looking more like option #3 on the ULL track. Hello?!
BrickTamland
Member
Snap back to reality 
wow
Member
Dont pay attention to the numbers but the SW trend. SC and GA getting more in it.
3k..sexy 
every model is basically just alternating sides of the Carolinas to utterly paste
All I am going to say is some of our best snows have come at the last minute when no one thought it was happening lol. Just two days ago the locals were like, not happening.... today..... different tune. LOL. It is reassuring to see the data trending toward giving us at least an inch. I'm thinking 1-3" is a good roundabout idea for ATL. We'll see how it shakes out though! What a fun few weeks of tracking(even if I have been mute). Either way, the prolonged cold this weekend is going to be a doozy!
BrickTamland
Member
3K looks odd.
NWG_WX14
Member
A few more trends like this and the coastal is going to really go boom over ENC
It scares me that the 18z op euro was so bad so far the hrrr, 12k, 3k, and fv3 were A+
Ugh. Who went out and purchased the northern coastal plain dry slought for the Triad? That run was smoking allright. @ brick
I don’t see how the eastern coastal plain of NC doesn’t get smoked here
Sctvman
Member
12z Euro is about 30-40 miles west with the SLP off of HAT at 12z Sunday compared to 0z 3k NAM, Euro is also 4mb deeper at 972. Compared to the 0z 12k NAM, the Euro was about 60-80 miles west, same pressure though of 972mb, again 12z Sunday. With blowing and drifting, travel in Eastern NC is looking particularly challenging Sunday morning.
I know there is a Raleigh bias here but I believe it is going under discussed that we are within 60 hours in and a growing consensus of models give those along and east of 17 a top 5 all time event
Yeah, I saw it. I still want it to be a bit further west. The NAM 500MB ULL track was closer to the AIGFS track from multiple runs, but still east of its positions. So, it has room to do better.
Stormsfury
Member
Damn thats actually eerily similar to the instant occlusion of Jan 2000, just further south
How much further west could that moisture from the coastal actually get. Could it actually get as far west as the Triangle?
Somebody has got to get the dry slot.
IMHO - “Nowcast” seems to be overused quite a bit with systems, but with this storm…we can expect that things change frequently up to and throughout the event. These are fairly dramatic jumps for specific locations run to run regardless of models.
I’m just a guy but NAM looked like an early nod toward the EURO at the surface
Super confused by this as well. I would expect the National Blend of Models to more or less reflect the models I see, but it often doesn’t seem to. Also, what is the difference between the NBM and the Parallel NBM?