Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1

[ducketta27]

It basically takes Augusta from 4-5 inch consensus from the globals to less than 1 inch on the HRRR

Serious question.... are we buying the HRRR yet? HUGE intrusion of dry air in the southwestern section of this.... basically in south central to southwestern SC... the HRRR is cutting the totals from 5-6 inches on Euro/4-5 on GFS to 0.9 inches on HRRR. That's a huge bust on the globals if so

Would be devastating considering the last 48 hours of trends to lose this thing completely at 36 hours out.

 

[packfan98]

Here’s the parallel National Blend of Models. Looks similar to Webber’s call map.

 

[Bigedd09]

Serious question.... are we buying the HRRR yet? HUGE intrusion of dry air in the southwestern section of this.... basically in south central to southwestern SC... the HRRR is cutting the totals from 5-6 inches on Euro/4-5 on GFS to 0.9 inches on HRRR. That's a huge bust on the globals if so

No. The long range hrrr is not the most reliable. I expect it to fill in


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[iGRXY]

NAM is west and tilted better so far

 

[rburrel2]

Would be devastating considering the last 48 hours of trends to lose this thing completely at 36 hours out.

You can safely ignore the hrrr past hr 18. It’s useless in that range.

 

[malak05]

NAM really has tilted NW a decent chunk from last few runs hopeful for decent downstream pivots...even more westward then past RGEM run

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

View attachment 191489

992mb low SE of Lookout at the end of the run


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[ducketta27]

No. The long range hrrr is not the most reliable. I expect it to fill in


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You can safely ignore the hrrr past hr 18. It’s useless in that range.

Thanks for responses and thank goodness.

 

[atlwx]

It basically takes Augusta from 4-5 inch consensus from the globals to less than 1 inch on the HRRR

to panic (or celebrate) over the HRRR at this range… you already know the answer. Panic got the best of you. Relax. Dry slots suck. But nothing is written yet.

 

[BrickTamland]

NAM at 24

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

If you didn’t love that last run of the HRRR I’ve got good news for you, the next one will look totally different. And it will be that way for the next 30 hours

 

[broken025]

Here’s the parallel National Blend of Models. Looks similar to Webber’s call map.
View attachment 191490

woof. CLT jackpot.

What’s up with those blank spots in NW SC? Are all the models showing nothing there or is that some kind of glitch?

 

[Bigedd09]

woof. CLT jackpot.

What’s up with those blank spots in NW SC? Are all the models showing nothing there or is that some kind of glitch?

Sorry thought I saw the Graf from earlier posted


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[CNCsnwfan1210]

woof. CLT jackpot.

What’s up with those blank spots in NW SC? Are all the models showing nothing there or is that some kind of glitch?

That GRAF model run is about 9 hours old.


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[iGRXY]

You can safely ignore the hrrr past hr 18. It’s useless in that range.

18 is gracious. 12 at best

 

[Ethan80963]

Here’s the parallel National Blend of Models. Looks similar to Webber’s call map.
View attachment 191490

Is this based off 10:1 or kucheras of the models?

 

[BrickTamland]

 

[ChrisAMB]

woof. CLT jackpot.

What’s up with those blank spots in NW SC? Are all the models showing nothing there or is that some kind of glitch?

Downsloping I assume.

 

[CaryWx]

Can I get a laymen’s term explanation on what that does on either side for this storm?

Me too Grit. I read your post 3x and still not sure what you are referring to here.

 

[BrickTamland]

NAM is doing work.

 

[HailCore]

I think the 3k NAM is about to make a lot of ATL folks happy... We shall see

 

[Ksnow33]

Looks like the NAM has slowed down a little and is a little west

 

[ragtop50]

Me too Grit. I read your post 3x and still not sure what you are referring to here.

I think he is saying normally the rain/snow line is that far inland and not out over the ocean. Rare here indeed.

 

[wow]

NAM more west, more tilt.. precip shield expanding SW

 

[wow]

 

[iGRXY]

The 3K is SMOKING the western carolinas and NE Georgia

 

[KyloG]

This is getting ridiculous…are these models of even the same event. This starts in under 24 hours…

3km vs NAM

 

[SnowQueen]

0z NBM…CLT couldn’t screw this up if they wanted. They getting a foot+ easy…
View attachment 191470

It can definitely screw up!

 

[wow]

We are getting NAMed big time with this run

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Nice. Another 50-100 miles further west with this same look and all of N. Georgia will be a winter wonderland. Not too shabby as is, btw.

 

[RBR71]

What models and/or data are in the NBM that causes it to consistently show the snow further north like this. It hasn't wavered

 

[NCSNOW]

Another little tick west on the NAM at 12
View attachment 191485

If we are ticking west still, then that means 50/50 is getting stronger? Or something with our confluence in NE is changing incrementally, pushing tpv back west.

 

[NCSNOW]

Maybe some speacil in house models they only have access to, gets incorporated , wild guess

What models and/or data are in the NBM that causes it to consistently show the snow further north like this. It hasn't wavered
View attachment 191501

 

[beanskip]

0z NAM brings some snow to DUUUUUUUUUUUUVALLLLL!

 

[Ross]

What models and/or data are in the NBM that causes it to consistently show the snow further north like this. It hasn't wavered
View attachment 191501

Ensembles I think

Trust me im not high on Richmond

 

[SD]

3k about to go wild in eastern NC

 

[malak05]

Not even phased by the low qpf output on NAM and 3K NAM for Atl and west... The H5 and the pivot were perfect I feel confident it will bring .10 to .15 qpf into GA NAM is just off on moisture but I'll take the N/S development

 

[BullCityWx]

12k beefing up. Can’t say I’m surprised with how SREF looks QPF wise.

 

[atlwx]

Maybe some speacil in house modeks they only have access to, gets incorporated wild guess

Please know that if you are terrible at spelling. You are not alone. We are many. We are the speacil modeks!

 

[Bigedd09]

Hopefully the FV3 is doing a better job picking up precip


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