• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

SCweather said:
Honestly, Ive yet to get a good enough explanation of why that look occurs so often of SC. It's hard to call it a warm nose cause the LP isn't even that close. It's just odd when I see that all the time. It's like the cold air crashes through middle GA and all of NC but is ALWAYS delayed with reaching South Carolina, atleast on model outputs. If anyone has a explanation for this, it would be greatly appreciated. Of course, I only notice this during and when we are tracking winter weather and a coastal storm is in play.
Click to expand...

I'm not going to go dig for it but someone on that other board said that unless cold air is locked in place there always seems to be an East GA warm area that sets up. The odd thing here is unlike that other storm last year, is while we don't have fresh cold, unless I'm just not remembering correctly it was much warmer before that storm.

Edit: I'm right. While we recently were warm, the days before this period will be colder than that time.
 
It wasn't less QPF unless the world is NC to you. TN, SC, the smokies, and N GA got more QPF. It decreased, but is still good in NC, went away in S LA, MS, and AL.
Here was 0z.
ecmwf_acc_snow_se_120.png
 
If there is a double jet on the Euro like it is on the NAM as Chris pointed out, there might be more precip in some areas than modeled.
 
SimeonNC said:
If there is a double jet on the Euro like it is on the NAM as Chris pointed out, there might be more precip in some areas than modeled.
Click to expand...
It definitely would be. We could get something like the December storm at a lower magnitude here with the precip coming from the west, then pivoting into the Carolinas and N GA as it moves away. Either that or an extended overrunning event.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I'm not going to go dig for it but someone on that other board said that unless cold air is locked in place there always seems to be an East GA warm area that sets up. The odd thing here is unlike that other storm last year, is while we don't have fresh cold, unless I'm just not remembering correctly it was much warmer before that storm.

Edit: I'm right. While we recently were warm, the days before this period will be colder than that time.
Click to expand...
That would make sense. That storm last January was a big example but that was because the LP trended so far NW that it hurt everyone. Idk it's just weird and I see it on a lot of storms that we track. During regular arctic blast with no moisture, I guess it depends on which direction the front is coming from. For example, Friday night the colder air filtered through GA and SC before alot of NC.
 
SCweather said:
That would make sense. That storm last January was a big example but that was because the LP trended so far NW that it hurt everyone. Idk it's just weird and I see it on a lot of storms that we track. During regular arctic blast with no moisture, I guess it depends on which direction the front is coming from. For example, Friday night the colder air filtered through GA and SC before alot of NC.
Click to expand...

It was there even before the LP came NW. East GA especially was taking a while to switch over.
 
Euro looking good again. Still looks like a good 3 to 4 here.
 
Timing isn't the best for CAE; and ptype would be Rain/Snow before turning over to all snow. Precipitation rate and amounts would decide what our predominant precipitation type was in this scenario. The Euro has consistently showed rain/snow over to light snow when it has moisture here.

Remember, areas further to our North in NC are showing rain/snow on soundings; also dictated by precipitation rate.
 
Arcc said:
Maybe a smidge, but worse in the trend. Not a good run as the only hope would be a flizzard produced by the rapidly drying out band. I'd much rather see all of central and north AL decrease in totals and see the totals beefing up over south AL.
Click to expand...
Trend is not worse.
 
UKMET, not as good, inland for the Carolinas vs 00z:

ukmet_acc_precip_conus_102.png
 
Good trends today,espeacilly triad over to triangle. Euro almost got back to that 6 inch plus look from a couple days ago. Fact Kuchera did have a 6 + lollipop just a hair nw of SD and Brick.Looked good at H5 so maybe we can get lucky and real one in here.

Euro,icon and nam are good horses to be pulling the wagon on a set up like this one. Ukmet is a hoarse you want when your dealing with phased streams.
 
Arcc said:
Maybe a smidge, but worse in the trend. Not a good run as the only hope would be a flizzard produced by the rapidly drying out band. I'd much rather see all of central and north AL decrease in totals and see the totals beefing up over south AL.
Click to expand...

Snow did extend down to Florida this run though.
 
SCweather said:
I got a feeling it'll change at 00z judging off the trends today, maybe not though.
Click to expand...

You'd think it would have looked better; as last night's 00z run was much wetter; even into your back yard. It was a step away at 12z; That's for sure. Without any member of the GEFS hinting, ruh roh.
 
Arcc said:
Maybe a smidge, but worse in the trend. Not a good run as the only hope would be a flizzard produced by the rapidly drying out band. I'd much rather see all of central and north AL decrease in totals and see the totals beefing up over south AL.
Click to expand...

Well this is a Clipper and with this axis setup I think it is about all we can get... Maybe we can add little bit more moisture and call it a win for what this is
 
Webberweather53 said:
While not as bad as the GFS, the UKMET showed a big western cutoff in QPF totals near or just east of 95 in the last event earlier this month which didn't exactly pan out...
Click to expand...

That's fine. I'm sure NC will do great. My area got some token flurries that weren't enough to stick, and UKMET pretty much showed that.
 
Shawn said:
You'd think it would have looked better; as last night's 00z run was much wetter; even into your back yard. It was a step away at 12z; That's for sure. Without any member of the GEFS hinting, ruh roh.
Click to expand...
It would seem that the GFS and it's essembles are bandwagons at this point with the lack of verification it's had lately. Hard to respect that model when it wants to jump on to the other models success at the last minute. But I understand what youre saying, the essembles are very important.
 
SCweather said:
It would seem that the GFS and it's essembles are bandwagons at this point with the lack of verification it's had lately. Hard to respect that model when it wants to jump on to the other models success at the last minute. But I understand what youre saying, the essembles are very important.
Click to expand...

The GFS was upgraded not too long ago, and it seems worse. The old GFS, at least we had everything figured out with it's problems. Now, its a head scratcher, sometimes. There is talk of a "new model" in 2019 to replace the GFS. From what I've seen of the FV3, it's more crap, and might likely be the same ole GFS on a new computer.
 
A moderate impact event is becoming probable for areas of central and eastern NC. While details are still largely unknown I think there's a very good chance that someone between the western piedmont and central coastal plain will end up with a nice moderate amount of snowfall out of this (2-5"/3-6"). The GFS and its underdispersive ensemble suite as usual are probably too flat/progressive with the longwave trough and we will likely end up with a solution that's closer to what the Euro, NAM, & ICON are showing.
 
Xtreme Weather said:
Well this is a Clipper and with this axis setup I think it is about all we can get... Maybe we can add little bit more moisture and call it a win for what this is
Click to expand...

Maybe it will hold together and give a lot of people a flizzard. I just have no trust in a clipper making it for most of us.
 
Ya the upcoming cold snap is as good as what the last one is but it's not anywhere near as long.

Edit: More like ongoing.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Yeah, it is cold for a few days. I would give the snow about 2 to 3 days after it falls for it to stick around. probably 1 for less than an inch with exposed surfaces.
Click to expand...

I wonder how much will just evaporate knowing the low water content of the snow along with the low dps and wind gusts.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top