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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1

It’s doing it!
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Updated Precip and snow amounts for Clemson, SC on the 12z modeling. I'll be devastated if we don't manage 3 inches of powder from this. Also interesting how much variance there is in start and stop times right now only being 72hrs out.

This is also looking like a fairly long duration "snow globe" snow. Light snow for 14-16 hours basically.

ModelRuntimelead to start 7am SaturdayKuchera snow10:1 SnowTotal liquidStart timeend timenotes
Euro06z78hr4.62.80.285am Sat8pm Saturday
Euro AI06z78hrN/A3.80.41am Sat8pm Saturday
GFS06z78hr5.24.50.478am Sat6pm Saturday
GFS AI06z78hrN/AN/A0.477pm Friday9pm Saturday
Rgem06z78hr3.22.80.284pm FridayN/Anot finished, only through 1pm saturday
NAM06z78hr6.14.40.443am SaturdayN/Anot finished, only through 1pm saturday
ICON06z78hrN/A1.40.198am Saturday3pm Saturday
NAM12z72hr0.90.60.079am Saturday5pm Saturday
Rgem12z72hr4.12.90.294am SaturdayN/Anot finished at 7pm saturday
ICON12z72hrN/A1.70.195am Saturday5pm Saturday
Euro12z72hr53.10.311am Saturday8pm Saturday
Euro AI12z72hrN/A3.30.341am Saturday7pm Saturday
GFS AI12z72hrN/AN/A0.497pm Friday11pm Saturday
GFS12z72hr4.63.80.358am Saturday11pm Saturday
 
Thought this graphic from FFC (posted on their socials and shared on their briefing) was helpful for those in Georgia assessing snow chances.

Paraphrasing met-in-charge Keith Stellman from the briefing, these three scenarios are split 1/3. Current GFS is 1, current Euro is 2, current Canadian is 3, and no real consensus at the moment on a more likely scenario.

Also talked about 20:1 ratios.

Briefing link:
 

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KyloG said:
Compare the 12z EPS v/s 18z NAM, assuming 10:1....right on top of each other. Not bad at all...

View attachment 190761
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Yeah that's the thing I liked the most....not just the high amounts, but the geographical footprint. That's what we want to hold. Of course GA / Bama / VA want it to slide their way....which is understandable
 
griteater said:
Yeah that's the thing I liked the most....not just the high amounts, but the geographical footprint. That's what we want to hold. Of course GA / Bama / VA want it to slide their way....which is understandable
Click to expand...
Looking at the models the past couple of days...CLT area has the best case of guaranteed snow with just the upper low.

Raleigh still dependent on coastal blowing up...that's a big risk thats bit us in the past. For you guys you win no matter...
 
Not looking into the exact amounts for triad. Anymore you look around the triad you can take 5 steps and go from 6 inches to 10 inches. Great trends


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May be a dumb question but end of NAM run is that back building to the west or moving west to east at the end of the frame ?


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iGRXY said:
View attachment 190766Would not be surprised to see A. a larger and longer last comma head or B. backfilling with this much FGEN WAA on the lee side of the mountains
Click to expand...

Brad P was talking about a band of heavy snow on the backside as the low goes off the coast


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