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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1

Add the CMC to the consensus of a more coastal concentration in the 12z suite. This morning all the models were developing the low just offshore but there was no reflected impact on inland precipitation. The foot prints of precip really focused on the ULL. Now you can see them all latching on to significant coastal development with precip blossoming inland.
 
KyloG said:
Can see the suppression diff on CMC/GFS...but other than very close.

Big diff for SC/GA though

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I'm not buying the GFS as much as the others primarily due to every other model not dry slotting GA and backfilling. Might have to do with tilt but almost everything at least gets snow into GA
 
ForsythSnow said:
I'm not buying the GFS as much as the others primarily due to every other model not dry slotting GA and backfilling. Might have to do with tilt but almost everything at least gets snow into GA
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GEFS seems like it's doing a better job at indicating this, would post but I'm posting here on my phone.
 
Arcc said:
Could, but you have to factor in sublimation in as well if that plays out.Anything on the west and southwest side will be from mostly bands. So in effect, you may get 1-2" worth of snow and only see a dusting several times because it disappears in the lulls.

It will be pretty though.
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Yep. Have seen this movie many times with the high ratio stuff from deep upper troughs, clippers, etc. Go to bed with white ground and covered streets only to wake up with brown ground and bare pavement lol. Dry windy air is the ultimate sponge.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I'm not buying the GFS as much as the others primarily due to every other model not dry slotting GA and backfilling. Might have to do with tilt but almost everything at least gets snow into GA
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Just using my back yard as a measuring stick. the gfs is a true outlier. every model has me getting more than the gfs...in many cases quite a bit. gfs is just way north with the mid level features which i'm assuming is one of the reasons it's off. canadian, rgem, euro, the ai's, all have the 700 to 925mb lows about 100 miles south of the gfs. at any rate, One more tick west with the canadian and even the heavy precip associated with the coastal development inches it's way into east ga. it's crazy to think the canadian/gfs is so much different than the uk at this range. but i love the 0.83 precip max over banks county.

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Something I would really point out to the folks west of the 77 corridor in the Carolinas and even back over northern GA… globals will often have a lot of difficulty picking up on the extent of precip with an ULL and we will often see that start to blossom when the CAMs start coming into view. That’s basically what happened in January 2003 when we saw the globals spitting out barely an inch or so over the western Carolinas and then short range models at the time really started picking up a lot more with 24 hours.
 
The GEFS 10:1 SLR mean has 8-9” over central NC which is insane. In reality tho, you will want to multiple at least 1.5x or so onto these given the cold deep layer temps, deep DGZ, cold ground, etc. which will all favor fluffy snow.

So really, the GEFS mean here is more like a widespread 12-15”+

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