Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1

[malak05]

Roofus paints a more realistic picture of what folks in the Atlanta area can probably expect from this- intermittent snow showers with a nice burst or two through lunch on Saturday.

Roofus is actually a huge swift West compared to past run

00z


12z

 

[Cary_Snow95]

So far through 48...50/50 stronger

View attachment 190580

GFS has been backing It up the last 3 runs

 

[Bigedd09]

Roofus paints a more realistic picture of what folks in the Atlanta area can probably expect from this- intermittent snow showers with a nice burst or two through lunch on Saturday.

Just no. That model has performed atrociously in this range and has dramatic shifts every run. I'd stick with AI models and weathernext models in the range

 

[Cary_Snow95]

gfs still backing up the 50/50... I hypothesize a further south track.

View attachment 190583

Originally we were rooting for more separation but now if this trend continues we can evolve it more to an RGEM look where the low pops south near the SC/NC border

 

[broken025]

AI GFS looks a bit west if I’m looking at this right

 

[NCWeatherhound]

12z ICON is rough, but also still warning criteria for much of NC and a huge hit for coastal areas, so I guess it’s not a bad fail scenario?

View attachment 190572

"I guess it's not a bad fail scenario..."
The representative from the Sandhills rises in objection.

 

[iGRXY]

AIGFS looks fantastic again.

 

[KyloG]

12z AI GFS jackpots CLT...nice run

 

[anc.py]

View attachment 190587AIGFS looks fantastic again.

 

[Brandon10]

12z AI GFS jackpots CLT...nice run

View attachment 190588

And it looks like Google...

 

[HailCore]

Roofus is actually a huge swift West compared to past run

12z
View attachment 190581
00z

Even RGEM was also further west. I do not think Atlanta is out of the game for this deformation band or at least periods of light to steady snow through the day Saturday. Even intermittent snow showers which would be the lower end scenario will likely provide areas with light accumulations that do not go anywhere from the extremely cold temps and hopefully continuous cloud cover.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

AIGFS continues to fill in precip from US1 east

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

12z AI GFS jackpots CLT...nice run

View attachment 190588

Nice increase for central NC too


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[bdake]

AI GFS looks a bit west if I’m looking at this right View attachment 190586

I am not a professional, just a new science teacher. I am in the dark orange in AL. What does that mean for me?


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[Wild Weather Monger]

Steady as she goes.

 

[Webberweather53]

This 12z GFS run is gonna back off a tad on the speed of wave tilt and surface cyclogenesis + occlusion. Still going to be a big storm regardless

 

[Ross]

This system is so cold and dynamic that the warm nose tried to flare up on the RGEM and it got slapped down. Not saying that will happen...we know how they work here but that was a positive

this is one of the rare times that all the deus ex machina processes weenies cite that keep things cold (make its cold air! crash the column!) are actually totally relevant lol

 

[KyloG]

GFS just kind of bobbling around to prior runs...at hour 72

 

[packfan98]

I am not a professional, just a new science teacher. I am in the dark orange in AL. What does that mean for me?


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All of the surface maps will be posted when available. Hold on a minute and all will be revealed.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

You can see on the AIGFS precip maps that it is popping the low closer to the NC/SC border. Each run moves it SW

 

[KyloG]

Longer 3 day trend on AI GFS...impressive changes

 

[BrickTamland]

GFS at 69 is fine.

 

[CaryWx]

AI GFS looks a bit west if I’m looking at this right View attachment 190586

Gives love to Charlotte area

 

[DopplerWx]

Gfs steady and cranking

 

[iGRXY]

The ULL hasn't even gotten going yet either

 

[BullCityWx]

 

[DopplerWx]

This is gonna be big from upstate down to cola and to clt

 

[wow]

GFS still hammering NC and surrounding areas, but it's not going up the coast. The 50/50 low is closer.

 

[FallsLake]

12z AI GFS jackpots CLT...nice run

View attachment 190588

The last two runs have been trending away from the drier QPF readings for our area and NE.

 

[Makeitsnow]

Roofus paints a more realistic picture of what folks in the Atlanta area can probably expect from this- intermittent snow showers with a nice burst or two through lunch on Saturday.

totally disagree. if for no other reason that it seems out to lunch pretty much everywhere.

 

[BrickTamland]

GFS looks to start filling in eastern NC.

 

[anc.py]

GFS just kind of bobbling around to prior runs...at hour 72

View attachment 190591

What's fascinating to see is that subtropical energy slow slightly down and center itself on New Orleans' longitude.

 

[BrickTamland]

 

[DopplerWx]

Acceptable

 

[Disco_Lemonade]

Oh my god.. 976 SE of Hat

 

[BullCityWx]

It is snowing at almost the clip of 2.5" per hour for the triangle late saturday.

 

[BrickTamland]

Look at that rate in Wake.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

GFS deepens the low in a stalled spot just off of Hatteras. Just sits there

 

[DopplerWx]

2ft in rdu

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

Look at that rate in Wake.

View attachment 190601

992mb low near Cape Lookout


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