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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1

Ai gfs is totally dead wrong to me

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Sending the primary low to Bermuda feels impossible, I think it has to be some sort of convective feedback, maybe the training data is showing tropical storm. It’s probably a mirage. Bouncy would love to hear any opinions on this

Anyway that’s why it’s so paltry with the coastal
 
Ai gfs is totally dead wrong to me

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Sending the primary low to Bermuda feels impossible, I think it has to be some sort of convective feedback, maybe the training data is showing tropical storm. It’s probably a mirage. Bouncy would love to hear any opinions on this

Anyway that’s why it’s so paltry with the coastal
CMC having a similar issue IMO.
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I shared some ensemble members earlier that briefly appeared on the data site before it went silent. Now nothing, and no Gencast runs available either. :(

Those ensemble members were bonkers!

A shame it decided to hang around and do nothing. Hopefully just some minor connectivity issues that'll be resolved soon!
 
Ai gfs is totally dead wrong to me


Sending the primary low to Bermuda feels impossible, I think it has to be some sort of convective feedback, maybe the training data is showing tropical storm. It’s probably a mirage. Bouncy would love to hear any opinions on this

Anyway that’s why it’s so paltry with the coastal

I distinctly remember that happening ONCE in the last 20 years. Can't remember the year but it was between 2013 and 2020. Standing on the beach you could see the snow falling 50 miles offshore. Was the weirdest thing and it shot straight east to Bermuda. I just don't see that happening here.
 
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00z GEFS in fairly good agreement at hr 102


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
UKMET just took a big jump towards euro/gfs I don’t think that was a bad run at all
it looks lost at 500mb. total outlier.
easy there, we have some slack left for more west shifts but eventually we will run out
Brad talking ratios

gotta get something off my chest. i never trust ratio talk. i know it has scientific basis but it feels like a "increase your snowfall by 50% with this one weird trick!!" scam. give me wet sticky snow all day
 
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