Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1

[Forevertothee]

Imho, given the presence of the upper low here as well as a upstate SC mesolow, (which is a climatological feature we tend to see in a lot of snow events), the floor for this storm is probably higher in places like Charlotte and Greensboro back into the Western Piedmont of NC. There’s more pathways you can get a least a sizable/moderate event out there

For the eastern Piedmont including places like RDU and the Triangle area, the floor for this storm looks lower, but the ceiling is also incredibly high at this point.

If you’re in the Triangle area, you will want to root for the coastal low to take over and really amp up more quickly so it can throw more precip to the N & W. Continued trends in the upper trough like we have seen the last day or two will certainly help in that department. However, I could certainly see a scenario like I mentioned earlier today playing out where this upper low to coastal transfer goes astray. This scenario would leave folks near/west of I-85/77 with heavier snow from the upper low and folks near/east of I-95 in the heavy snow from the coastal, while you end up in a relative “dry slot” of sorts, though of course you could still get some good snow in that case!

I want to see how things play out the next few days, but the 18z models certainly seem to be subtly suggesting this scenario is a greater possibility

Could you give your thoughts for SC like you do here for NC? Upstate through Midlands to Lowcountry.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

So under 100 hours we have the gfs and euro dumping over a foot..

 

[mx3gsr92]

Lawd the Kuchera is nice…

Can also see that dry slot Mr. Webber referenced earlier regarding the transfer.

 

[Lordhelmit]

So under 100 hours we have the gfs and euro dumping over a foot..

Yes but 3 days for the NW trend to fk us over

 

[KyloG]

18z AIFS…same as its Op

12z vs 18z

 

[Crow]

Are we going away from a true miller a with the transfer of the ULL? I’m learning so forgive me if this is a stupid question.

 

[SENC]

Warm Nose + a Dry slot.. for SENC, (Up too Greenville)

 

[bncho]

I'm telling you, NOTHING is beating that NW seasonal trend.

It happens every year, for better or for worse. And we always think that the models have it at D5, but then suddenly the seasonal trend of the winter takes place. It almost always holds true, and very rarely fails.

 

[KyloG]

18z EPS. Holy crap

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

18z EPS. Holy crap

View attachment 190230

Just your standard smoooothed 996 winding up off the coast of cape hatteras..sheesh

 

[wxdaniel]

Event hasn’t even started good on the rgem and we got this already? Whew. This is better news than the 18z gfs.

View attachment 190199

If you point at the image and hold your finger a drop down allows you to save the image instead of screenshotting it. We wouldn’t want to see your search history one day.

 

[KyloG]

18z EPS surface. My goodness…so sick

 

[packfan98]

Yeah, remember those 4 runs of trending to the east and weaker, scratch that.
18z AIFS ensembles

 

[Packsox03]

18z euro on Tuesday was when we first went ultra-amped last week. Significantly amped up a week later at the same range. We would like that trough to go neutral west of I-65

 

[packfan98]

I sure didn’t think that we would have this much consensus across most models after this 18z suite. We had been trending further appall day. Now to see what other surprises we get with the CAM’s.

 

[jackendrickwx]

Holy smokes lol

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

18Z weathernext model run at 8PM....biggest run of our lives

 

[Ksnow33]

18Z weathernext model run at 8PM....biggest run of our lives

It will trend slightly wetter I think. It rarely makes huge moves.

 

[mx3gsr92]

Holy smokes lol
View attachment 190234

Times like 2 with the ratios

 

[packfan98]

Holy smokes lol
View attachment 190234

Wow! The meteograms are going to be fun. I sure wish we had Kuchera maps. I guess the precip maps would be better for comparison.

 

[Packsox03]

EPS is around 7-8 inches 10:1 at RDU so kuchera would be in the 10-12 inch neighborhood

 

[packfan98]

 

[Edward Nygma]

 

[iwantsouthernsnow123]

This is GFS, but there is a general agreement of strong winds during this timeframe due to NW winds associated with the ULL.

If this can generally trend back west, things may get very interesting for areas on the lee side of the mountains.

 

[iGRXY]

I would be totally surprised if those west of I77 aren’t closer to 20:1 ratios IMO.

 

[rburrel2]

Upstate update:
Euro: crush job
Euro ai: crush job
Gfs ai: crush job
Gfs: crush job
CMC: crush job
Rgem: crush job incoming
Icon: light to moderate hit
Weathernext: moderate hit
Ukmet: light/spotty hit
All ensemble means(gfs, aigfs,euro, euro ai): crush jobs

Did I miss anything?

 

[rburrel2]

Hi res models are going to go absolutely bonkers with this ull/leeside stuff, imo.

 

[packfan98]

For those who were citing previous storms where a model was printing out tons of snow and you got less due to mixing, that’s not really in play for this storm. It all comes down to how much precip you get.

 

[Packsox03]

I mean, watch issuance timeframe is like 24-36 hours from now. This isn’t THAT far out

 

[LukeBarrette]

Only thing I worry is that this could be just a blip being 18z. Especially since none of the models (to my knowledge) ingest data. Maybe someone can correct me. But feeling much better now with the EPS on board

 

[LukeBarrette]

Hi res models are going to go absolutely bonkers with this ull/leeside stuff, imo.

The RAP will be ridiculous. We have seen it go insane before with these setups.

 

[Engeo]

 

[jrips27]

18z Euro has 1-2 inches in Atlanta with temperatures in the upper teens. So sick. @GaWx has that ever happened?

 

[wow]

For those who were citing previous storms where a model was printing out tons of snow and you got less due to mixing, that’s not really in play for this storm. It all comes down to how much precip you get.

Not in play at all.. This is nearly all driven by the ULL and the bombing surface low off the coast. Very little, if any, mixed precip. All eyes are on the orientation and strength of the ULL.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Only thing I worry is that this could be just a blip being 18z. Especially since none of the models (to my knowledge) ingest data. Maybe someone can correct me. But feeling much better now with the EPS on board

To be fair the 18z euro last Tuesday was the first giant leap towards the inland runner

 

[wow]

GFS has been well more consistent than the Euro in the last 4 runs

 

[NBAcentel]

Only thing I worry is that this could be just a blip being 18z. Especially since none of the models (to my knowledge) ingest data. Maybe someone can correct me. But feeling much better now with the EPS on board

Supposedly the 18z GFS/GEFS got some minor ingestion from a recon mission, but it was related to the pacific energy. Not sure how much it helps

 

[Bigedd09]

Only thing I worry is that this could be just a blip being 18z. Especially since none of the models (to my knowledge) ingest data. Maybe someone can correct me. But feeling much better now with the EPS on board

Definitely always feel iffy about 18z data. But it was the 18z euro last week that was the turning point of the storm this past weekend.


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[BIG FROSTY]

For anyone interested... Bastardi's video this evening, He said one heck of a storm for the Carolinas and Virginia. Near Blizzard conditions on the coast. And he had the 18 ZGFS snowmap up, and he said plenty of room for it to move 50 or 75 miles more northwest, because GFS known bias of being too far SE.

 

[NCSNOW]

CALL THE GOVENOR! Shes a coming.

Ive seen enough. Sold 100%. GFS and GEFS did it. Wait on verification. But NCSNOW is sold 100%

Seriously, we been talking ratios. But you get a wound up beast, youll get wetter and heavier weighted snow than you realize. So keep in mind. If you got 800 gallons of propane,fuel, generator in a box from last weekend like everyone else in the south. Dont return it just yet.