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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1

anc.py said:
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Tail end of the arctic trough isn't reaching as far north as it once was. I imagine this is a better trend regarding tilt, but that also will depend on its rotation into a neutral/neg tilt once it reaches into the Eastern U.S.

It could be due to stronger ridging starting to become apparent into Hudson Bay, but that's just my opinion.
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what's interesting is that while the tail end of the short wave is less elongated, it's also tightening up at the base with lower heights around lake superior. this would help with separation.
 
anc.py said:
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GEFS continues to push that trough of interest further west as well as strengthening its base.

Another small thing to note is that there's now small (but apparent) ridging between the bulb off of Newfoundland and the one in the Great Lakes. Not sure if it's actively ridging or just due to the separation causing that visual effect.
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Ross said:
what's interesting is that while the tail end of the short wave is less elongated, it's also tightening up at the base with lower heights around lake superior. this would help with separation.
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It definitely does appear that way from the looks of it. It could be ensemble noise but I'd imagine scenario #1 (base tightening) being the more correct observation here.
 
anc.py said:
It definitely does appear that way from the looks of it. It could be ensemble noise but I'd imagine scenario #1 (base tightening) being the more correct observation here.
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RAH seems to be leaning on the western guidance...

Recent model trends favor a slightly farther west track of the upper
low and surface cyclone, which has increased chances for snow inland
across central NC. With the Arctic air mass already in place, and
forecast soundings showing no warm nose aloft, precipitation would
fall primarily as snow, with no sleet or freezing rain mixing in at
this time. As the upper low moves across the region Saturday into
Sunday northerly flow should help keep the cold air across central
NC through the weekend during the precipitation.

While this Miller-A storm setup is one of the more favorable for
snowfall across the area, significant accumulations are not
guaranteed. Snowfall amounts will depend heavily on the location,
timing, and interaction of the northern and southern stream flow.
Another major factor in play is the location and proximity of the
coastal low offshore.

At this time, confidence is highest for frigid temperatures over the
weekend mixed with a chance of wintry precipitation as early as
Friday night through Sunday morning. However, it is too early to
pinpoint where the heavier snowfall will fall and where the narrow
deformation band would be most likely.
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I think we all know that the GFS has some issue that's causing it to perform very poorly this winter. I'd love it to be correct but it's been so bad it's just short of useless.

It showed me getting 12-16 inches from the event last week until 24 hours out. It never stopped showing me getting 8+ until the event was under way. I ended up with 2 inches of snow and .4 ice.
 
I don’t think anyone on here is believing the gfs is going to get even close to hitting those totals, it is just showing that our middle ground of models is still a very strong storm. Gfs will moderate and euro will strengthen most likely. And the in between is still an amazing storm
 
UNCSC said:
I don’t think anyone on here is believing the gfs is going to get even close to hitting those totals, it is just showing that our middle ground of models is still a very strong storm. Gfs will moderate and euro will strengthen most likely. And the in between is still an amazing storm
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Totally agree. I think the Euro and AIFS increase some but nothing like the GFS
 
UNCSC said:
I don’t think anyone on here is believing the gfs is going to get even close to hitting those totals, it is just showing that our middle ground of models is still a very strong storm. Gfs will moderate and euro will strengthen most likely. And the in between is still an amazing storm
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Well yeah, statistically. But it's still nice to see :)

But it's usually who folds and when? Euro has perked up a bit on the ULL meso-low over W/C NC while the GFS continues to strengthen the cutoff ULL. All while our Google AI God watches us with pity.
 
John1122 said:
I think we all know that the GFS has some issue that's causing it to perform very poorly this winter. I'd love it to be correct but it's been so bad it's just short of useless.

It showed me getting 12-16 inches from the event last week until 24 hours out. It never stopped showing me getting 8+ until the event was under way. I ended up with 2 inches of snow and .4 ice.
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Well the writing was on the wall for that storm with the track of the storm and warm nose. This storm doesn’t have that


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Sure would ove to see Google WeatherNext2 start ticking west. I've said it once and I'll say it again. ULL will deliver for those out western Piedmont NC and upstate SC, coastal will get OBX and there's gonna be a minimum in the middle. Probably I-95 corridor, maybe a touch west either way I don't think they both connect and deliver across the whole area. My take anyway.... flame away
 
ragtop50 said:
Do we believe the GFS? No. But do we feel better it shows this rather than an east/dry solution? YES!
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Maybe, but GFS has been so bad I'd almost feel better if it was the one showing a whiff
 
UNCSC said:
I don’t think anyone on here is believing the gfs is going to get even close to hitting those totals, it is just showing that our middle ground of models is still a very strong storm. Gfs will moderate and euro will strengthen most likely. And the in between is still an amazing storm
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Yeah I agree. In terms of how everything comes together, the GFS does make some sense and has some support from ensembles. However we all know obviously that the stupidly insane totals are just not gonna happen
 
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