Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Wow. Actually an increase in WNC and extreme Northern SC
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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
foothillscrewzone
Member
Yep, leeside enhancement showing up near the Blue Ridge. January 2003, anyone?
BrickTamland
Member
It's crazy how much things can change from 5 days out to 4 days out with the models.
iGRXY
Member
Just my opinion but I really expect that to shift more to the west with lesser probabilities the further east until we get the coastal part of this nailed
saielA10462
Member
Seems like the typical big dogs within 5 days then we are slowly going down the path of just begging for snow out the sky. Wxnext nailing this would be wild and prove all models useless. 2022 was so simple and nobody appreciated it lol.
lexxnchloe
Member
if this latest threat goes down the toilet its probably over for most of NC to see any snow this winter. This cold pattern is going to break down and even if it gets back to cold in March, that cold isnt January cold.
MichaelJ
Member
Bastardi is betting on a further West solution rather than an Eastern one
iGRXY
Member
I really wish y'all would stop saying stuff like this with no bases at all other than emotion. Because February as it stands today actually looks great
MichaelJ
Member
Just for the record, I disagree
Yeah it’s prob not so far east that it’s out in the Atlantic. Prob just far enough west that Nantucket gets smoked
Tsappfrog20
Member
Completely agree with you everything I am seeing feb looks really good
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It sure jumps with its precip maps ( unfortunately east) every run, to be the King. Gonna look bad/ egg in face if those dark greens get back to the coastal plain/ piedmont region over the next few cycles.
It will have to win this hands down to get me to buy into it's reputation. I put a lot of faith in what Bouncey and you say about it's record. So I'm paying very close attn.
Honestly not too late for WeatherNext2 to resolve upper level features a little different and swing back west some. Still 3 days out, but if it's gonna happen it's got to start adjusting with 0z run imo. Also, it could crap the bed this time, it's not 100% accuracy, yet
JMA is trending in the wrong direction, particularly for the outside of the Carolinas' weenies.
I presume the Pangu wasn't all that, since no one with access bothered to post it?
I presume the Pangu wasn't all that, since no one with access bothered to post it?
Sctvman
Member
I don't think CHS has had snow 2 winters in a row in a very long time. Going back decades
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Euro AI upper low position has me still intrigued, I’m not ready to sell this one yet. Too many variables involved to put confidence in any one solution right now.
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It was a good run while it lasted, you tried.
Hopefully they don't have to walk this one back
Yeah it's almost like the atmosphere is fluid
Here is the weathernext taking RDU from nearly 1" QPF ~84 hours out from onset
...to just over 0.5" ~60 hours out
...and then filling back in about 24 hours out
I cherry picked a location that was on the fringe of greater QPF because, well, that's where most of NC stands with this coastal. Not here to say "its trending back" or "its trending away" (which it is at the moment, and that can't be ignored). I am just here to say the thing is good but not indestructible and small QPF changes can go a long way for a lot of people.
GSP goes from 1.25 to 1 to just under 1. These are small changes, yes, but again, anticipating high ratio snow means small QPF changes have a greater impact. Let's just see where it goes.
...to just over 0.5" ~60 hours out
...and then filling back in about 24 hours out
I cherry picked a location that was on the fringe of greater QPF because, well, that's where most of NC stands with this coastal. Not here to say "its trending back" or "its trending away" (which it is at the moment, and that can't be ignored). I am just here to say the thing is good but not indestructible and small QPF changes can go a long way for a lot of people.
GSP goes from 1.25 to 1 to just under 1. These are small changes, yes, but again, anticipating high ratio snow means small QPF changes have a greater impact. Let's just see where it goes.
blueheronNC
Member
Is that just pattern-honing
Impressive that it picked up on that dry slot and amplitude at all. It would have detrimentally impacted the CRPS marginal scoring to go exactly dry out at that range of probabilities within the noise. What I'm not seeing are areas that were predicted dry at T-84 that subsequently increased significantly. That's what we're dealing with now.
Impressive that it picked up on that dry slot and amplitude at all. It would have detrimentally impacted the CRPS marginal scoring to go exactly dry out at that range of probabilities within the noise. What I'm not seeing are areas that were predicted dry at T-84 that subsequently increased significantly. That's what we're dealing with now.
LOL. 12Z Euro has a threat in 8.5 days
snowlover91
Member
End of the ARPEGE run.
Brandon10
Member
WeatherNext does well with specific location and what is going to happen in general...but it did struggle with QPF amounts.
well no but that's not the point, i am just saying it is possible for it to make changes that give pretty different results at this range. i understand it isn't the same situation. not denying the trend.
Seems bullish for GSP this far out
are we treating the weathernext as gospel because it nailed one storm
i know it doesn't seem or feel like it because of ptype but last week's mechanisms were kind of primitive, lets rise moist air over cold dome ooga booga. i don't think it took anything particularly inventive to get a grip on that.
not trying to wishcast my way into something or denying it's been impressive. watching it decay our system has been deflating. but it is at the dry end of a guidance envelope that adjusted favorably and under normal circumstances we'd approach it like a dry outlier. just wondering if it's being over-indexed.
i know it doesn't seem or feel like it because of ptype but last week's mechanisms were kind of primitive, lets rise moist air over cold dome ooga booga. i don't think it took anything particularly inventive to get a grip on that.
not trying to wishcast my way into something or denying it's been impressive. watching it decay our system has been deflating. but it is at the dry end of a guidance envelope that adjusted favorably and under normal circumstances we'd approach it like a dry outlier. just wondering if it's being over-indexed.
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blueheronNC
Member
WPC Extended Discussion now out. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd&version=0&fmt=reg Relevant portion:
"
In this anomalously cold pattern, there is potential for wintry
precipitation into the Gulf Coast states late week as upper trough
translation leads into northern Gulf frontal wave genesis. Wave
progression downstream and trough/closed low development aloft is
now increasingly likely to set the environment to produce a
significant Eastern Seaboard Coastal Winter storm expected to
rapidly deepen while lifting over the western Atlantic off the
Southeast Saturday and Mid-Atlantic/New England Sunday. Uncertainty
has improved but remains with the exact track of the low which
impacts the onshore wintry precipitation focus and footprint.
However,
the growing consensus at this time is for heavy snow potential
from the eastern Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic through coastal southern
New England. The forecast strength of the deep low suggests high
winds/waves and coastal flooding would also be expected."
"
In this anomalously cold pattern, there is potential for wintry
precipitation into the Gulf Coast states late week as upper trough
translation leads into northern Gulf frontal wave genesis. Wave
progression downstream and trough/closed low development aloft is
now increasingly likely to set the environment to produce a
significant Eastern Seaboard Coastal Winter storm expected to
rapidly deepen while lifting over the western Atlantic off the
Southeast Saturday and Mid-Atlantic/New England Sunday. Uncertainty
has improved but remains with the exact track of the low which
impacts the onshore wintry precipitation focus and footprint.
However,
the growing consensus at this time is for heavy snow potential
from the eastern Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic through coastal southern
New England. The forecast strength of the deep low suggests high
winds/waves and coastal flooding would also be expected."
RollTide18
Member
snow showers for most of the state of Alabama would be a win
Stormsfury
Member
WPC hasn't relented yet.
Basically all models (except uk and google) shifted west today. If we see 18z and 00z suite shift back east then we can panic but right now we are in a decent spot imo
NWS says we rip come Saturday.. and FWIW their maps suggest they favor a degree of coastal development 
The GFS is gonna beat Google AI. All my years of bashing it, putting it down. It's getting ready to deliver the Holy Grail of all Central NC snowstorms, that will be talked about for Generations.
Seriously though, I googled GFS Verification score. Look at what ole AI had to say about the GFS. "OUTPERFORM ECMWF". Like who wrote this?
AI Overview
The Global Forecast System (GFS) model provides high-accuracy, 0.25-degree resolution weather forecasts 4 times daily, with 95-96% accuracy up to 12 hours, 85-95% for 3 days, and 65-80% for up to 10 days. Recent upgrades (FV3 core) have significantly improved its performance, allowing it to frequently outperform the European (ECMWF) model in specific, short-term extreme weather scenarios and tropical cyclone tracking.
Seriously though, I googled GFS Verification score. Look at what ole AI had to say about the GFS. "OUTPERFORM ECMWF". Like who wrote this?
AI Overview
The Global Forecast System (GFS) model provides high-accuracy, 0.25-degree resolution weather forecasts 4 times daily, with 95-96% accuracy up to 12 hours, 85-95% for 3 days, and 65-80% for up to 10 days. Recent upgrades (FV3 core) have significantly improved its performance, allowing it to frequently outperform the European (ECMWF) model in specific, short-term extreme weather scenarios and tropical cyclone tracking.
Attachments
I have faith, the GFS lives!
If we see another eastward jog like this with the coastal low in the next WeatherNext2 run then the odds of this occurring are very slim. It will make small adjustments that amount to fine tuning the general pattern it has hooked on to but not enough to bring the coastal low back unless something very unexpected happens.
olhausen
Member
I don’t trust the gfs worth damn after last weekend. For me It showed 10 plus inch snows and almost no ZR run after run after run until the morning before. And by go time it folded like a cheap suit to the euro with a few inches of snow and a ragging ice storm. I never truly believed it but for obvious reasons was praying it was right for once. I don’t normally bash a model showing a big snow for people, but just letting you guys know how poorly it preformed just days ago.
MichaelJ
Member
Can the GFS be correct? Absolutely it can, is it more than a 20% chance to be correct, absolutely NOT (IMO). My suggestion is to throw out the two most extreme models (GFS on one side and UKMET on the other) and take a blend of the rest
Stormsfury
Member
Now that I've thought about it a little more.
I wonder if we're seeing the same thing we did back in Jan 2018 in regards to with multiple lows and convective feedback issues, possibly? The GFS/GEM are similar but the GEM wants to crank up a low on the convective cluster while the GFS is cranking the northern low of the two.
Damn, also noticed the low pressure up north where the GFS has a weak one in Alberta, while the GEM has it in the Dakotas. Yikes. (Gotta slow that puppy down!) (Retrogression, do your magic)
I wonder if we're seeing the same thing we did back in Jan 2018 in regards to with multiple lows and convective feedback issues, possibly? The GFS/GEM are similar but the GEM wants to crank up a low on the convective cluster while the GFS is cranking the northern low of the two.
Damn, also noticed the low pressure up north where the GFS has a weak one in Alberta, while the GEM has it in the Dakotas. Yikes. (Gotta slow that puppy down!) (Retrogression, do your magic)