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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1

Mitch West said:
Euro will be a super adult here & wiff but hopefully it at least stays the same or ticks back West.
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if i were a betting man (which i am, just ask fanduel), i would wager the euro capitulates modestly to the rest of the crowd, maybe getting the edge of the coastal snow shield to wilson. if its cohort even simply ticks east, then time to have a hard look in the mirror.
 
LittleMountain said:
Recognizing there’s a lot that feeds into our models and lots of little things that have downstream implications. But isn’t it wild that we have such divergence in models that one shows 30” of snow and the other none less than 4 days out?
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It's pretty bad they can be so far apart this close.
 
The GEFS is trending in the right direction with the slower wave and earlier tilt, still could afford some continued shifts in tilt.

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For Central NC, you need this upper wave to go neutrally tilted over roughly the I-65 corridor from about Huntsville to Nashville to maximize your potential out of this. That’s basically what the 12z GFS does

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The CMC oth is a really good hit but the neutral tilt is a bit late over I-75 or Atlanta to Knoxville instead. Hence, our storm is a tad east as well.

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I really don’t know what to think at this point. Usually I’d say having the GEFS/CMC/GFS on your side isn’t the side you want to be on. Especially when it’s the EURO/EPS/UK. But then I think about how the UK just did a complete 180 in one model run and tbh I have not been impressed at all with it these last 2 storms. The one thing that gives me some optimism is the AI models are squarely in the GFS camp right now. We will wait to see if the AIFS switches but so far it’s been almost lock step on a significant winter storm.
 
iGRXY said:
I really don’t know what to think at this point. Usually I’d say having the GEFS/CMC/GFS on your side isn’t the side you want to be on. Especially when it’s the EURO/EPS/UK. But then I think about how the UK just didn’t a complete 180 in one model run and tbh I have not been impressed at all with it these last 2 storms. The one thing that gives me some optimism is the AI models are squarely in the GFS camp right now. We will wait to see if the AIFS switches but so far it’s been almost lock step on a significant winter storm.
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We’ve got euro AI mean, gfs ai mean, and weathernext on our side, we good. The other stuff is mostly just noise
 
Tokenfreak said:
Weathernext has been get less and less each run though.
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A little bit, sure. But it’s still giving a good snow to most and now aligns perfectly with the other ai models.

And don’t expect continued weaker shifts. That’s why it’s the best. It won’t be way off of what it was showing yesterday. If anything I would guess it ticks back to more precip today.
 
Interesting. The last couple of storms the gfs has been on the south side of most models. Now this one it’s further north and west. Battle we got going. Definitely would love to see the euro trend more toward the gfs at 12z. But it normally follows the ukie more often than not


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rburrel2 said:
A little bit, sure. But it’s still giving a good snow to most and now aligns perfectly with the other ai models.

And don’t expect continued weaker shifts. That’s why it’s the best. It won’t be way off of what it was showing yesterday. If smithing is guess it ticks back some today.
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Yeah we shall see. I hope you right. Guess we will see soon around the 12z run about 2pm.
 
Chazwin said:
Let’s remember the ICON was much improved compared to it 12z and 0z runs. Kinda surprised me that the UKMET did a complete whiff like that after the improvement the ICON made
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The ukmet was the 1st model to trend way NW , along with canadian this past event. It then pivoted 180 back and had to regather and play catchup.
It (ukmet) will be different at 0z tonight. guranteed.
 
Mitch West said:
Euro will be a super adult here & wiff but hopefully it at least stays the same or ticks back West.
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Well, here's something quite similar to Dec 2010. If I recall correctly, that storm got lost and I mean completely lost for a day or two. Came back suddenly towards last minute go time. So much energy to resolve. Ukmet definitely took a huge step in the wrong direction. The GFS went nuclear. CMC moderated itself a bit.
 
Just my two cents, but it looks like any coastal enhancement will be too late except for maybe moyock/outerbanks.

But we’re also coalescing on a nice upper level low snow with a max/jackpot centered around charlotte; with maybe as much as 1/2 inch of liquid there. And decent snows for everyone else in nc/sc too. And even northeast Georgia.

I’ll be shocked if we wind up with something at go time thats much different than that.
 
All of these maps are assuming 10:1 ratios? However I think we would be closer to 15:1 So we could add 40-50 percent to these maps?
 
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CaryWx said:
UK/Euro combo will be tough to beat--historically right?
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Yes, but the UK has not been good this winter from what I’ve seen. And idk how I’d clsssify the euro. Still better than the gfs and cmc but even it isn’t what it used to be. It was entirely too flat with the first storm early in the month, its lack of ability to handle CAD made it one of useless this past weekend. The GFS did a lot better with thermals and p types.
 
rburrel2 said:
The trough broadening is hurting the coastal enhancement odds imo, but the stronger vort and better tilt is helping the upper low precip. Jives with the ai models.
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I don't know how much better it can get...it looks really good verbatim and brings snow to many on the board which is about all we can hope for.
 
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