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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1

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enjoying tracking the little southern portion of this wave and the trend of this outpacing the main trough. it looks like a gif from one run, no, it's a trend gif. i think this feature really helps pull our storm into negative tilt and explode

to me, still ample room to adjust west and get more people (ME) on the board here without sacrificing the coast. if i'm in wilmington, i feel good but i also know how tough it is to get snow at the coast
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
GFS knows ball. looking at MSLP it’s a textbook miller AView attachment 189781
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Heck, check out that little rotation on the upstate SC meso low. This is how the whole package should work, but with more intensified precip with the mesoscale models as we get closer in. Of course, it all hinges on getting the teardrop upper wave evolution right

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Ross said:
View attachment 189790
enjoying tracking the little southern portion of this wave and the trend of this outpacing the main trough. it looks like a gif from one run, no, it's a trend gif. i think this feature really helps pull our storm into negative tilt and explode

to me, still ample room to adjust west and get more people (ME) on the board here without sacrificing the coast. if i'm in wilmington, i feel good but i also know how tough it is to get snow at the coast
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Rooting for a west trend myself here in NE TN but don’t wanna take anyone out
 
Jglover004 said:
As a member who lives on the western side of the mountains in a bordering county (Sevier TN) this one has piqued my interest. Good luck to all you Carolina peeps! Trends are looking decent tonight
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We’re close man. A December 2010 analog repeat would do us in the foothills wonders and get all the Carolinas
 
snku_acc-imp.us_se.png

Still going
 
Ross said:
View attachment 189796
beautiful look

don't know where you're at in the cycle... i wouldn't say "much further", main vort lobe jogged about 40-60 miles NW. still in the "noise" range to me
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Yeah but would love for them all to keep ticking 40-50 miles like that it brings a whole lot more into the game while bombing Carolina
 
griteater said:
Heck, check out that little rotation on the upstate SC meso low. This is how the whole package should work, but with more intensified precip with the mesoscale models as we get closer in. Of course, it all hinges on getting the teardrop upper wave evolution right

View attachment 189794
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Read these 3 paragraphs in write up following crusher. Kind of goes with your meso low annalysis above. How to keep the fire going, even though surface is low has passed us and off coast. Maybe the meso low, like an ULL can capture it feedback, prolong inland snow.
Im probably off base here. Just looking for a way to get greedy.

"The presence of that trough unusually far south also put us in the playground for jet stream dynamics: processes that provide additional support for lift and precipitation in certain regions around that fast-moving “river of air” more than three miles above the ground.

That acted to enhance the precipitation associated with the surface low-pressure system tracking along our coastline, and even after that system had gone by, the upper-level low prolonged the rising air needed to generate more precipitation throughout the night.

“A lot of times, the [surface] low goes by to the north and the snow will stop, but in that case we had the forcing for ascent well into the next morning,” explained Lackmann. “Once the low moved by to the north, the snow on the back side associated with the upper trough kept falling.”

It was the rare combination, at least in this part of the country, of being cold enough and having the atmospheric support for sustained snowfall without the risk of a precipitation type transition or an early end to the event."
 
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