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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1

tonysc said:
This is not a picture of the February 12th 2010 snowstorm. That storm was an I-20 special.

AI Overview



On February 12, 2010,
a rare and historic winter storm brought heavy, wet snow to the Deep South and Southeast United States, contributing to a remarkable event where snow was on the ground in 49 of the 50 states simultaneously. The storm, which occurred during a strong El Niño, caused significant travel disruptions, power outages, and school closures across the region.
Regional Snowfall and Impacts (Feb 12-13, 2010)
  • South Carolina: Heavily impacted with 4–8 inches of snow, including 8.6 inches in Columbia, which was the city's 6th largest snow event. Over 1,500 auto accidents were reported, and 37,000 homes lost power.
  • Georgia: A large swath of 3–6 inches fell across Central Georgia. Savannah recorded nearly an inch of snow.
  • Alabama & Florida Panhandle: A "rare" heavy snow event occurred, with up to 7 inches in interior southwest Alabama and accumulating snow down to the Gulf Coast.
  • Louisiana & Texas: Snow fell for over 12 hours in central Louisiana, with 1–4 inches of accumulation. In Texas, a record 12.6 inches fell in Dallas, and up to 20 inches in areas near the upper coast.
  • Mid-Atlantic: This event was part of a series of storms in Feb 2010, often referred to as "Snowmageddon," which dropped 20+ inches in areas like Virginia and Maryland just days before this event.
Key Details
  • Timing: The heaviest snow fell from Friday evening, February 12, into Saturday morning, February 13.
  • Conditions: The snow was described as very heavy and wet, causing widespread power outages from falling branches and tree limbs.
  • Temperature: The storm was powered by cold arctic air, allowing for snow in southern regions that rarely see significant accumulation.
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Yeah I recall Polk County/Paulding in areas had 3-5 inches of snow and then BRUTAL cold for several days. The roads were terrible and covered in several inches of melted and frozen Ice and power outages came day after the snow as the snow that melted weighed froze and weighed down lines and trees.
 
There’s gonna be one heck of a Lee-side trough Saturday morning. That’s a big reason we’re see the precip breaking out so well over the upstate. It’s like your typical Lee-side trough low level convergence except this time it also has upper level support from the vort max…. I’m honestly pretty high on this producing and possibly surprising some folks. My biggest concern is I think it will be very band-centric and feature winners and losers.

I also like that the progged convergence zone is more towards northeastern Georgia instead of the typical gsp/charlotte region. Thats why models get precip back in to Georgia before pivoting
 
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rburrel2 said:
There’s gonna be one heck of a Lee-side trough Saturday morning. That’s a big reason we’re see the precip breaking out so well over the upstate. It’s like your typical Lee-side trough low level convergence except this time it also has upper level support from the vort max…. I’m honestly pretty high on this producing and possibly surprising some folks. My biggest concern is I think it will be very band-centric and feature winners and losers.
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Trying to forecast an ULL is very tough but it always comes with great rewards for areas that get under or just north of it. I think the upstate is sitting pretty as we stand right now. The ULL alone could drop easily 2-8"+ of snow west to east. Anything we could get from a coastal development is just money. I'd like to trend the ULL a bit more west (not much honestly) it would shift your area into the 2-6" range and my area in the 5-8"+ probabilities. right now that's sitting more along I77.
 
Even if this 5h trough doesn’t go negative and pinch off in time… I think you’re gonna see a nice swath of snow from northeastern Georgia and then swinging through South Carolina and all of North Carolina before exiting the coast…. You’ve got that lee-side enhancement and 850 low spinning, it will cook… and role east across the state, even without the bombogenesis miller A outcome.
 
The contrast in ocean temps just offshore and the contrast in air temps with the polar air mass coming in makes me really hope we can get things started south and early, even if it misses me east. We could really see some fireworks. The powder keg is loaded.
 
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