iGRXY
Member
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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Brandon10
Member
Yeah not liking trends east of I95...to close and too much warm air.
Not super surprising but EPS looks improved
You do know that run was not finished for eastern sections? Only goes out to 144
Brandon10
Member
The Ecmwf AI ran the entire storm?
Cary_Snow95
Member
06z and 18z Euro only runs to 144 hours. It is different than its AI counterpart
lexxnchloe
Member
I wouldnt trust all that precip after the low.
We don't need to just scoot the energy as a whole back West, we really got to dig this thing more West to push the snow footprint back Southwest.
NBAcentel
Member
More of this, but not to much of this. 
blueheronNC
Member
Weathernext2 has it offshore significantly and was trending away not closer. Perhaps even a bit too offshore.
Brandon10
Member
Obviously at this range it is best to rely on the ensembles, even if the operational sometimes can produce some trends or show us some synoptics.
The weather next has been crushing it this winter. Be interesting if it has any adjustmens. Normally when it has adjustments, they happen on a much smaller scale over time.
Bigedd09
Member
Loved waking up to so many posts. But I did not see the weather next model from overnight. Anyone have it?
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Comes out at 2a/p and 8a/p. Will have to wait for one of our posters with access to post it
NBAcentel
Member
50/50 low trending quicker raising downstream heights and allowing the energy to pinch off, pretty classic miller A evolution there. Wonder if we start seeing negatives with this soon though 
WCNC just put snow in their 7 day for Sat. If models hold through end of day have to think we see more start honking.
What is truly annoying, the 6z Icon looks almost identical to the epic fantasy GFS run on Friday with the northern stream. But, the southern wave is a strung out mess.
blueheronNC
Member
This was the four-run trend for the 00z Weathernext2. Given the bouncing around I wouldn’t say it’s locked in yet. Once it locks in we’ll start seeing only marginal run-to-run changes and that’s when this model is truly impressive.
It’s wild have we actually made this one day CLOSER to us. We use to kick the can a lot, but this went from moreso a Sunday thing to a Saturday thing fast.
This gif doesn’t inspire me I have to say
Bigedd09
Member
The only model that’s trended slightly more offshore. But I put a lot of faith in this one. Hopefully 6z will be back west!
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AlabamaWxWatcher
Member
Seems it was this time last week (Monday into Tuesday) that we saw the massive shifts with the previous storm. Very curious to see what the path looks like this time tomorrow.
Shaggy
Member
We should all hope for some suppression in this range.
rburrel2
Member
We can get a 4-6 inch powder snow from the Lee-side enhancement when the trough passes over us, even if the main surface low trends way out to sea. In some ways that solution could even be better for us in terms of not getting missed to the east.
WolfpackHomer91
Member
Correct, Tuesday 18Z EURO was the first to jump way NW
rusrius
Member
And we really aren't that far off from this being in the short range either.
packfan98
Moderator
You sound like you are ready to be banned from another storm thread...
Chattownsnow
Member
We are basically at the mercy of how far that little vort over the Hudson Bay slingshots west and then winds up as it comes south. I used the 0z euro but as of making this the 6Z euro came out on TT but the point remains the same. You can see a piece of energy following this energy around the backside that I think is tugging this west. It’s there on the GFS also but less defined and dives in later, thus its more east. I tried making a longer GIF so you can see it all play out but the file is too large. I feel like that back side energy diving in is what will determine how far west this can get, if it ends up there at all.
Makeitsnow
Member
Here are the euro ens totals.
blueheronNC
Member
The 850 is in such a favorable position for a hammerhead snow thump as the low pivots by Hatteras. Shades of that Turn of the Century event we’re never supposed to cite.
Just looking at that. About 150 mile jump to the north.. Now it was trying to shoot precip into Georgia/Alabama that way.
Interesting that all of the old models are taking a 1000 mb low south of Hatteras to sub 980 within about 12 hours. If this is anywhere near to being correct we are in for it. It will take time for models to get surface features of the location/intensity of a rapidly developing deformation band, but wow.
Can see the 50/50 lifting out quicker past few runs and that northern stream energy trying to dig back further west on each run. This past weekend and last weekend we saw that dig further and further west for those events...and just how much southern stream energy comes out...its just setting up for a big coastal bomb for 85 corridor and west.
This is at hour 108...so by tomorrow nights 0z runs we might have a better idea, which Tuesday last week was when the models seemed to converge on a more amped miller b for this past weekend.
This is at hour 108...so by tomorrow nights 0z runs we might have a better idea, which Tuesday last week was when the models seemed to converge on a more amped miller b for this past weekend.
I think the trend here to watch is not so much how far NW everything shifts but how far south this upper level low develops and starts to bomb. Would involve a lot more on this board with a memorable event if it starts a little more south.
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Makeitsnow
Member
Aifs
6z weathernext was a nice jump on QPF:
StormVista does this weird thing where it doesn't allow you to put the most recent weathernext QPF frame in a trend loop, so here is 0z for comparison:
