12z on top compared to 00z below.
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Pattern Fab Feb
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Codariah
Member
Seems like a similar general footprint across most of the ensemble means with several suppressed individual members showing up.
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SegTindo
Member
whatalife
Moderator
Nice jump in AIFS ENS snow mean.
That little snow hole over central Alabama can just go ahead and get on with it. You can clearly see the late blooming idea for those to the east but you also can see a nice mean to our south. The look is where we want it, just gotta reel it in. I can’t take another L to go 0 for 3. This will be the one, @Jimmy Hypocracy said we could have this one anyways.
LittleMountain
Member
That snow mean includes this weekend. Correct? What’s it look like just focused on next week?
whatalife
Moderator
SnowNiner
Member
That looks to overlap this weekend storm a bit, but it’s easy to see it’s calling for a coastal. That suite and Google is what I’m looking at moving forward, and it looks like there’s a legit threat here with AIFS on board.
Keep it suppressed on the ops, and keep the signal pinging on the ensembles and grow as it gets closer. Textbook.
Big dog skews this a little but I sure like seeing the boom potential
SegTindo
Member
This is about to be make or break for some people just matters now who gets it…
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It’s not that great of a signal imo.
Storm5
Member
We push all the chips into the middle . Its a good look 6-7 days out .
Here's the Weathernext run
Here's a comparison of today's 12z run vs. yesterday's 12z run. I added a little flavor with the High and Low pressure (nice sketch tool on SV). The timestamps are different because the speed of the system on the mean changed a bit, but I tried to line them up when they were moving along at the same point with low pressure straddling FL.
Anyway, it's improved some with the trough backed more to the west / colder / high pressure up top. Don't have 500mb to view on SV
Am I reading it right that that shows a board-wide snow storm?
lexxnchloe
Member
light snow but its a good trend
It's an ensemble mean. Not the finished product we want to see, but it's shown improvement
Hard to tell totals from that
12z CMC run
wow
Member
CMC is a late phase
For a hit in GA from coast to NW GA (say 0.5”+ at both and/or sig ZR), I know of these:
-Jan 1893
-Feb 1895
-Feb 1899
-Feb 1914
-Jan 1918
-Jan 1921
-Jan 1922
-Feb 1934
-Feb 1968
-Jan 1977
-Jan 1988
-Feb 1989
-Feb 2010
-Jan 2014
-Jan 2025
The Mitch West / Stormfury storm showing up on the CPC Day 6 to 10 analogs (2/12/2010)
Yes sir, they have even moistened us up some on the precip outlook. We comin.
Amazing consistency shown at the end of today's ensemble runs (Day 15)
After Day 15, here is today's Euro Weeklies for Feb 8-24
After Day 15, here is today's Euro Weeklies for Feb 8-24
Dang that is some huge anomalies over Greenland for a 360hr mean...
SegTindo
Member
Can you explain what’s happening sorry i don’t understand all that yet I’m learning but I’d love to know what it means!
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So for the south, we usually want a -NAO which is what is depicted on this map. That means there is higher than normal pressure over Greenland and the labrador sea. In a perfect world, that is right where we want it. You can also see eastern based NAOs which arent as fruitful over our area. This is a well written article that explains it pretty well.
That is a great question! Please know that if you want to learn, there is no shortage of folks here willing to help.
rburrel2
Member
The mean 5h anomaly map for this January/February is going to be absolutely perfect. If we screw up and don’t get a board wide snow from it???? Woof
Indices’ progs for 1/30-2/2 crucial period:
-weak to moderate MJO 8/1
-Strong + PNA
-Strong -AO rising from ~-5 on 1/28
-moderate to weak -NAO
-weak -WPO
-neutral EPO
It doesn’t get much better than this. Note the most notable differences between the current storm period and this next one:
-much stronger +PNA
-weaker -WPO/-EPO but lagged cold still there
-MJO phase 8/1 vs 7
-weak to moderate MJO 8/1
-Strong + PNA
-Strong -AO rising from ~-5 on 1/28
-moderate to weak -NAO
-weak -WPO
-neutral EPO
It doesn’t get much better than this. Note the most notable differences between the current storm period and this next one:
-much stronger +PNA
-weaker -WPO/-EPO but lagged cold still there
-MJO phase 8/1 vs 7
SnowNiner
Member
Thanks Grit. Looks like a classic Miller A. Not the stj east\west storm this weekend was supposed to be.
The model consensus is progging ~-5 for the 1/28 AO. If it gets there, it would join a select few Jans with a day or more of a sub -5 AO:
2010: ATL very cold but nothing historic
1985: ATL -8 one day later
1977: snow/freeze to Miami 2 days later
1966: ATL -3 2 days later
1963: ATL -3 3 days later
2010: ATL very cold but nothing historic
1985: ATL -8 one day later
1977: snow/freeze to Miami 2 days later
1966: ATL -3 2 days later
1963: ATL -3 3 days later
Remember that comment of wall to wall cold after the 8th on for the country? I think it’s very possible looking at that retrograde pattern.
I first said toss the 18z GFS, but it may just be a little late.