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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026

Ross said:
Got a fun thing to throw into

Was looking at op model trends from when we first latched onto this event

The Canadian killed it. Called northward tilt much earlier than anyone else. This is when we were all (me) clowning it for unserious. Post for another day
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Ha, yeah I remember making a post about the Canadian opening the escape hatch across the Great Lakes.....and boy did it open
 
Not sure there's really much reason to look at it at this point, but the 12z GFS was possibly the driest I've seen of it yet for the Carolinas. RDU was in the 0.7-0.8" range and GSO was even short of 1". Meh. 🤷‍♂️

I think it's going to come down to how far south the banding sets up and that's going to be very hard to predict. A normal model error will easily have huge impacts. Either way, a Warning criteria major event is happening; the question is more on whether it will be something we remember for many years here or if it's just another ice storm. Things seem a little more locked in for the former in upstate SC, etc.
 
superjames1992 said:
Not sure there's really much reason to look at it at this point, but the 12z GFS was possibly the driest I've seen of it yet for the Carolinas. RDU was in the 0.7-0.8" range and GSO was even short of 1". Meh. 🤷‍♂️

I think it's going to come down to how far south the banding sets up and that's going to be very hard to predict. A normal model error will easily have huge impacts. Either way, a Warning criteria major event is happening; the question is more on whether it will be something we remember for many years here or if it's just another ice storm. Things seem a little more locked in for the former in upstate SC, etc.
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Would be awesome around here tbh
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The mesoscale models all seem to be trending the CAD to be less potent. Here are the trend loops for NAM, FV3, and RGEM. For each model , I selected the forecast hour that showed the farthest extent of CAD and then did the trend for most recent 4 model runs. Maybe none of them have a handle on CAD potency/persistence but a trend is a trend.
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coldspringsfarm said:
The mesoscale models all seem to be trending the CAD to be less potent. Here are the trend loops for NAM, FV3, and RGEM. For each model , I selected the forecast hour that showed the farthest extent of CAD and then did the trend for most recent 4 model runs. Maybe none of them have a handle on CAD potency/persistence but a trend is a trend.
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Noticed that, too; it's the opposite of what I would've expected leading directly up to the event. Maybe they'll be wrong or maybe my line of thinking is outdated?
 
coldspringsfarm said:
The mesoscale models all seem to be trending the CAD to be less potent. Here are the trend loops for NAM, FV3, and RGEM. For each model , I selected the forecast hour that showed the farthest extent of CAD and then did the trend for most recent 4 model runs. Maybe none of them have a handle on CAD potency/persistence but a trend is a trend.
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Interesting. I've also noticed the 40s starting to work their way back into upstate South Carolina. It could be legit.
 
superjames1992 said:
Not sure there's really much reason to look at it at this point, but the 12z GFS was possibly the driest I've seen of it yet for the Carolinas. RDU was in the 0.7-0.8" range and GSO was even short of 1". Meh. 🤷‍♂️

I think it's going to come down to how far south the banding sets up and that's going to be very hard to predict. A normal model error will easily have huge impacts. Either way, a Warning criteria major event is happening; the question is more on whether it will be something we remember for many years here or if it's just another ice storm. Things seem a little more locked in for the former in upstate SC, etc.
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In comparison, the 12z ICON is about as wet as ever. Kind of interesting how the banding sets up such that the Triangle out-QPFs the Triad! We'll see! Definitely don't favor using the globals too much with this system, anyways; just posting this for map porn, LOL!

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The RGEM, which I believe does pretty well with CAD setups historically, looks more similar to the ICON.
 
superjames1992 said:
In comparison, the 12z ICON is about as wet as ever. Kind of interesting how the banding sets up such that the Triangle out-QPFs the Triad! We'll see! Definitely don't favor using the globals too much with this system, anyways; just posting this for map porn, LOL!

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The RGEM, which I believe does pretty well with CAD setups historically, looks more similar to the ICON.
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1.5 to 1.75 QPF equivalent and triad is looking at probably top 5 storm of this century imo


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chase223322 said:
Extremely novice/dumb question but what will this precipitation “look” like once it starts in NE GA? Will it look/sound like a rain storm outside?
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Freezing RaIn will sound like rain as it is a liquid until it makes contact with sub freezing surface... You can/will hear IP (sleet) as it strikes hard surfaces and "pings" etc
 
rburrel2 said:
With model trends on qpf I think we can take the biblical solutions off the table for the upstate. No 2-3 inch liquid totals showing up on the hi-res models. Still going to be bad though
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Probably, though we'll see. Given how unusual wintry systems are that bring that much liquid equivalent, I always had a little doubt in my mind about the totals we were seeing. That being said, this is a juicy system and some modeling is still showing pretty high totals; it is not inconceivable that we could bust on the high side and see those biblical totals, even if I wouldn't necessarily favor it.

1" liquid equivalent is still quite high and probably the biggest total I've seen in a winter storm since at least Fab Feb 2014 (not sure what our liquid equivalent was from that storm in the Triad, but it had to be pretty high), and if not then then maybe the December 2002 ice storm.
 
superjames1992 said:
Probably, though we'll see. Given how unusual wintry systems are that bring that much liquid equivalent, I always had a little doubt in my mind about the totals we were seeing. That being said, this is a juicy system and some modeling is still showing pretty high totals; it is not inconceivable that we could bust on the high side and see those biblical totals, even if I wouldn't necessarily favor it.
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I 100% agree with this sentiment. I think we all love a good storm but 2-3 inches is devastating. I think we’d all prefer to be employed and not have extreme devastation to infrastructure to have employers be forced to close for a week or two


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I think the models are struggling with reflecting precip in general, I'm thinking what is actually happening is we are going to see banding instead of a general 1-1.5" if precip for everyone and that is why we are seeing some areas trend dryer and other more wet. Also, I wouldn't be saying we are trending to a less severe look, light freezing rain and drizzle is far worse that a steady rain as if accrues much more effeciently
 
chase223322 said:
Extremely novice/dumb question but what will this precipitation “look” like once it starts in NE GA? Will it look/sound like a rain storm outside?
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Sleet / ice pellets are little pellets of ice. It'll be loud and they can sometimes even sting a little depending on how heavy it is falling. Freezing rain will seem like a normal rain event except things will start to be coated in ice after a while and then trees, etc. will start falling. Depending on soil / ground temps, freezing rain is sometimes mostly confined to elevated surfaces, sometimes just to trees and grass blades, etc., or in the worst cases it can freeze on the road (which will probably happen for many here given the surface temps). Moreover, many will probably start as sleet first and that will cover the roads before the ZR starts, and so the ZR will just freeze on top of the sleet that's already sticking.
 
Mpirone12 said:
Guys I’d stop focusing on the GFS and start looking at the short range models. HRRR and NAM


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Who is focusing on it? Just sharing model output, which for central NC is not a stretch considering dry slot. These comments are what irritate posters. Oh and look NAM very similar
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Hey Mitch. I just saw scrolling across the TV of an upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning for the Midlands yet all I’m seeing is Ice Storm Warnings. Can you or someone verify this?
 
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If I sent you this exact picture in NW Piedmont NC in like 2002 you’d have to be thinking smash job… the two HP the Texas / OK / AR Hammer …. Used to all be tell tells


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