Euro AI would be one of the strangest southern snow storms ever. It does it completely with the northern wave. Just another solution.
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Pattern Fab Feb
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
March 09 like??
accu35
Member
Euro may do it
BKWRN29
Member
Someone plz post the euro when it’s done. I have stayed up to see if it shows next weekends storm 
accu35
Member
Suppressed but that’s good as of now
accu35
Member
It’s right where we want it for nowSomeone plz post the euro when it’s done. I have stayed up to see if it shows next weekends storm
A healthy clip was there though and you post the EURO AI. Thank you
Very nice, this is all I need to see really. If we can be headed into friday maintaining this general look then its boom city
accu35
Member
Yeah, this look here is big time potential once it starts trending NW a little.
And the Euro is how we lose.
Yep in my opinion the fact that it gets smashed into the gulf after this frame is money
Nah let the Euro cook we've got a long time on this one
To be frank, we lost some in all metrics tonight. Maybe better luck tomorrow.
NOT THE EURO BUT GFS SAYS ALL BUT THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF BAMA ARE GETTING SNOW
NEGaweather
Member
KATL discussion about next weekend..
This is the part of the AFD where I get to do my favorite PSA -
friends don`t let friends share single model runs of 10:1 snow
totals 8 to 9 days out on social media. From any model. Yes, I am
judging you for posting that GFS run. Anyway, while the
operational version of the GFS keeps posting varying fun totals,
the GEFS puts the probability of an inch across areas around
15-20%. The probability of 4" is basically 4%...a single member,
most likely. So, let`s just pump the brakes on talking about the
next storm, and wait for a bit more model consistency (the Euro
ensemble, for instance, locates probabilities a bit further north
than the American). We`ve got bigger fish to fry this weekend.
&&
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
This is the part of the AFD where I get to do my favorite PSA -
friends don`t let friends share single model runs of 10:1 snow
totals 8 to 9 days out on social media. From any model. Yes, I am
judging you for posting that GFS run. Anyway, while the
operational version of the GFS keeps posting varying fun totals,
the GEFS puts the probability of an inch across areas around
15-20%. The probability of 4" is basically 4%...a single member,
most likely. So, let`s just pump the brakes on talking about the
next storm, and wait for a bit more model consistency (the Euro
ensemble, for instance, locates probabilities a bit further north
than the American). We`ve got bigger fish to fry this weekend.
&&
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
iGRXY
Member
You keep the wave down near Miami until Thursday.
lexxnchloe
Member
EURO and GFS have this little fellow
6z GFS shears, but based on individual low tracks, the GEFS should look really good.
The 6z AI Euro is just depressing, don't look.
rburrel2
Member
Storm signal still there.
rburrel2
Member
Also the 06z euro was gonna have a nice slider, imo.
That's one of the funniest NWS forecast discussions I've read.
Euro at least has the one run trend of what we need to see more of with the closed low / TPV over the Lakes and NE
Starting to gather more eps support and some big ones at that. Hope it keeps growing!
SegTindo
Member
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All snow here(likely decent ratios) for almost all of the carolinas.
SegTindo
Member
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Storm5
Member
12z icon has suppressed storm
accu35
Member
Need the two pieces of energy phased instead of one piece diving to oblivion.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Here is a composite for all winters that had an official SSW in late November or early December. We had one this winter on November 28. The composite doesn't match what we've seen out west this winter, but the west-based -NAO is noted.
Hopefully we see a storm chance next weekend. Then at the end of their runs, the ensembles are pointing to the following weekend (Feb 8) having a potentially nice pattern as well with -AO / -NAO continuing. It would be nice if we could get the trough to work back more into the central U.S. -AO / -NAO combined with a trough in both the central U.S. and eastern U.S. is a very nice pattern.
With the stratosphere forecasted to undergo a solid weakening in early February, and with what may end up trending toward a SSW in the 2nd week of Feb, I think the -NAO continuing makes sense
After the February 8 weekend, here is what the Euro and GFS Weeklies show for Feb 8-15
Hopefully we see a storm chance next weekend. Then at the end of their runs, the ensembles are pointing to the following weekend (Feb 8) having a potentially nice pattern as well with -AO / -NAO continuing. It would be nice if we could get the trough to work back more into the central U.S. -AO / -NAO combined with a trough in both the central U.S. and eastern U.S. is a very nice pattern.
With the stratosphere forecasted to undergo a solid weakening in early February, and with what may end up trending toward a SSW in the 2nd week of Feb, I think the -NAO continuing makes sense
After the February 8 weekend, here is what the Euro and GFS Weeklies show for Feb 8-15
Honestly, probably the next frame or two would be the closest you would probably ever seen to central Florida getting snow.
broken025
Member
LovingGulfLows
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- Jan 5, 2017
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- 1,434
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AI GFS is kind of trash. It went from a northern solution where the 540 line was in the mid-Atlantic region to now in the gulf...ridiculous...
PvilleWeather
Member
Bingo! Not that far off here. Plenty of time to work this one. Hope to see some positive moment soon in our direction here for Central Alabama.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
The snow map will be interesting here I believe. Surface temps are a touch iffy, but the 850s say it's cold enough for a period of time.
Edit: Now do I trust it, ehhh, not really, just saying it's interesting.
wow
Member
AIGFS consistent with a substantial STJ wave and 50/50 low end of the month. Textbook Miller A.
12z AI GFS
