• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026

Mpirone12 said:
bdb3dcafb7438588c79884ec51650d38.jpg

If you don’t hear from me anymore it means the EURO or CANADIAN came to be…..


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Let's hope the Euro and Canadian are struggling with thermals. Bring on the sleet!
 
packfan98 said:
Looks like the euro and AIFS is trying to dryslot just east of the triangle again. What are you seeing @KyloG
Click to expand...
Definitely did back off a little on totals across central NC compared to 12z, although it's still a lot wetter for much for NC than prior runs, IIRC. Same for the AI Euro.

1769125014645.png
 
packfan98 said:
Looks like the euro and AIFS is trying to dryslot just east of the triangle again. What are you seeing @KyloG
Click to expand...
Yep, seeing the same thing. 30 miles from 1” QPF and 30 from less then .30”. This just for the overrunning part which I feel that is the meat of this. The band that swings through after could be rain.

I just feel Raleigh will escape the worst…but you guys and that corridor down to GSP is rough. 😳


IMG_5404.png
 
superjames1992 said:
Definitely did back off a little on totals across central NC compared to 12z, although it's still a lot wetter for much for NC than prior runs, IIRC. Same for the AI Euro.

View attachment 187745
Click to expand...
Yeah that last line of precip that went through bumped up the totals. Almost a two part system for many of us.
 
UNCSC said:
I still think NW of I-85 starts as snow before WAA takes effect. Be alot more sleet than the EURO is showing
Click to expand...
Yes but this warm nose is so strong it will quickly take over and change to sleet might only have a few hours of snow chances.
 
Look, tbh this will anger some ….. this may be a “dangerous” potential event. But we’ve all seen this time and time again, these earth shattering amounts modeled that have never been recorded and never will, bc it’s impossible. I’d bet my left you know what no one from GA - VA ends up more than 1” FRZN. Yes that’s dangerous, but that’s never happened in 150yrs of records if I’m not mistaken and this weekend will be no different. My forecast at worst would be “UP TO 3/4”” even in the worst spot no more, ever. No matter what I saw on any model. This will not become some 1000yr event, be realistic we’ve all been here.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
Look, tbh this will anger some ….. this may be a “dangerous” potential event. But we’ve all seen this time and time again, these earth shattering amounts modeled that have never been recorded and never will, bc it’s impossible. I’d bet my left you know what no one from GA - VA ends up more than 1” FRZN. Yes that’s dangerous, but that’s never happened in 150yrs of records if I’m not mistaken and this weekend will be no different. My forecast at worst would be “UP TO 3/4”” even in the worst spot no more, ever. No matter what I saw on any model. This will not become some 1000yr event, be realistic we’ve all been here.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Over 1 inch of accretion will be achieved on the eastern escarpment of the SC mountains at elevations between 2500-3000ft. I’d bet a lot of money on it.
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
Look, tbh this will anger some ….. this may be a “dangerous” potential event. But we’ve all seen this time and time again, these earth shattering amounts modeled that have never been recorded and never will, bc it’s impossible. I’d bet my left you know what no one from GA - VA ends up more than 1” FRZN. Yes that’s dangerous, but that’s never happened in 150yrs of records if I’m not mistaken and this weekend will be no different. My forecast at worst would be “UP TO 3/4”” even in the worst spot no more, ever. No matter what I saw on any model. This will not become some 1000yr event, be realistic we’ve all been here.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Didnt augusta get over 1 inch of ice accumulation in 2014?
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
Look, tbh this will anger some ….. this may be a “dangerous” potential event. But we’ve all seen this time and time again, these earth shattering amounts modeled that have never been recorded and never will, bc it’s impossible. I’d bet my left you know what no one from GA - VA ends up more than 1” FRZN. Yes that’s dangerous, but that’s never happened in 150yrs of records if I’m not mistaken and this weekend will be no different. My forecast at worst would be “UP TO 3/4”” even in the worst spot no more, ever. No matter what I saw on any model. This will not become some 1000yr event, be realistic we’ve all been here.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
There's an element of truth to what you're saying regarding modeled improbable events are likely to trend back towards "normal", but there are also exceptions. If we used that logic, the Florida panhandle wouldn't have received anywhere close to 10" (!!!) of snowfall in a single storm last winter. Same for New Orleans.

Also, 1" of freezing rain has definitely happened before. Maybe not in the widespread amounts projected, but I'm not sure about that. I do think there is a high likelihood that sleet dramatically cuts into these ZR totals, as well, but you never know.
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
Look, tbh this will anger some ….. this may be a “dangerous” potential event. But we’ve all seen this time and time again, these earth shattering amounts modeled that have never been recorded and never will, bc it’s impossible. I’d bet my left you know what no one from GA - VA ends up more than 1” FRZN. Yes that’s dangerous, but that’s never happened in 150yrs of records if I’m not mistaken and this weekend will be no different. My forecast at worst would be “UP TO 3/4”” even in the worst spot no more, ever. No matter what I saw on any model. This will not become some 1000yr event, be realistic we’ve all been here.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
I read these similar sentiments before Helene as well....
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
Look, tbh this will anger some ….. this may be a “dangerous” potential event. But we’ve all seen this time and time again, these earth shattering amounts modeled that have never been recorded and never will, bc it’s impossible. I’d bet my left you know what no one from GA - VA ends up more than 1” FRZN. Yes that’s dangerous, but that’s never happened in 150yrs of records if I’m not mistaken and this weekend will be no different. My forecast at worst would be “UP TO 3/4”” even in the worst spot no more, ever. No matter what I saw on any model. This will not become some 1000yr event, be realistic we’ve all been here.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
1” vs 0.75” like come on. It’s going to be a big deal anyway for a lot of people. You can downplay it for now but it’s going to be at your doorstep soon. Mooresville is not safe
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
Look, tbh this will anger some ….. this may be a “dangerous” potential event. But we’ve all seen this time and time again, these earth shattering amounts modeled that have never been recorded and never will, bc it’s impossible. I’d bet my left you know what no one from GA - VA ends up more than 1” FRZN. Yes that’s dangerous, but that’s never happened in 150yrs of records if I’m not mistaken and this weekend will be no different. My forecast at worst would be “UP TO 3/4”” even in the worst spot no more, ever. No matter what I saw on any model. This will not become some 1000yr event, be realistic we’ve all been here.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
I had a similar thought, these biblical totals are dependent on the insane qpf the models are spitting out and assuming perfect accrual. We have seen forecasted ice storms before end up being more sleet than freezing rain. Part of it is me being hopeful we don’t see catastrophic totals (with a 3 year old and a 1 year old) but climo tells you that we aren’t going to shatter 150+ year records here in a few days. I could be wrong but we will see.
 
DopplerWx said:
I had a similar thought, these biblical totals are dependent on the insane qpf the models are spitting out and assuming perfect accrual. We have seen forecasted ice storms before end up being more sleet than freezing rain. Part of it is me being hopeful we don’t see catastrophic totals but climo tells you that we aren’t going to shatter 150+ year records here in a few days. I could be wrong but we will see.
Click to expand...
I think it honestly comes down to just how hard the Precip is, If it's harder rates you got a lot of Runoff, If it's lighter yeah more time to acrue. But my money is on most people seeing .50" at most. Still bad sure But nowhere near what some of these are showing
 
LongRanger said:
I think it honestly comes down to just how hard the Precip is, If it's harder rates you got a lot of Runoff, If it's lighter yeah more time to acrue. But my money is on most people seeing .50" at most. Still bad sure But nowhere near what some of these are showing
Click to expand...
Serious question have you ever been in a .5” ice storm?
 
Back when I was 8 I was in the March 2014 ice storm, branches fell on power lines near my house and caused a fire, after that my house had no power for 3 days.
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
Look, tbh this will anger some ….. this may be a “dangerous” potential event. But we’ve all seen this time and time again, these earth shattering amounts modeled that have never been recorded and never will, bc it’s impossible. I’d bet my left you know what no one from GA - VA ends up more than 1” FRZN. Yes that’s dangerous, but that’s never happened in 150yrs of records if I’m not mistaken and this weekend will be no different. My forecast at worst would be “UP TO 3/4”” even in the worst spot no more, ever. No matter what I saw on any model. This will not become some 1000yr event, be realistic we’ve all been here.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Ok what happens 2 to 3 inches of liquid precip falls into air that is the mid 20s because of a strong warm nose over a 30 plus hour period? Just because an event being modeled is rare doesn't mean it can't happened. I'd love for you to be right btw...but i'd love to see the reasoning against it other than the feels.

DopplerWx said:
I had a similar thought, these biblical totals are dependent on the insane qpf the models are spitting out and assuming perfect accrual. We have seen forecasted ice storms before end up being more sleet than freezing rain. Part of it is me being hopeful we don’t see catastrophic totals but climo tells you that we aren’t going to shatter 150+ year records here in a few days. I could be wrong but we will see.
Click to expand...
The problem is it's impossible for areas to get sleet with the soundings the models are putting out outside the core of the cad areas. As others have pointed out, things happen outside of climo all the time. Freakish setups can and do happen. I'm struggling to see how we get out of this short of the models just being WAY off on precip totals. Whats troubling about this setup is the duration. The amount of precip doesn't fall into a 6 or 12 hour period where rates would certainly cause a lot of runoff and limit amounts. Instead we get modest amounts per hour over a long period which can do the job.

TheWeatherDriver said:
1” vs 0.75” like come on. It’s going to be a big deal anyway for a lot of people. You can downplay it for now but it’s going to be at your doorstep soon. Mooresville is not safe
Click to expand...
Yep...0.75 is crippling.
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
Look, tbh this will anger some ….. this may be a “dangerous” potential event. But we’ve all seen this time and time again, these earth shattering amounts modeled that have never been recorded and never will, bc it’s impossible. I’d bet my left you know what no one from GA - VA ends up more than 1” FRZN. Yes that’s dangerous, but that’s never happened in 150yrs of records if I’m not mistaken and this weekend will be no different. My forecast at worst would be “UP TO 3/4”” even in the worst spot no more, ever. No matter what I saw on any model. This will not become some 1000yr event, be realistic we’ve all been here.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
DopplerWx said:
I had a similar thought, these biblical totals are dependent on the insane qpf the models are spitting out and assuming perfect accrual. We have seen forecasted ice storms before end up being more sleet than freezing rain. Part of it is me being hopeful we don’t see catastrophic totals (with a 3 year old and a 1 year old) but climo tells you that we aren’t going to shatter 150+ year records here in a few days. I could be wrong but we will see.
Click to expand...
This is the only ice storm I can remember in my 40+ year lifetime that caused a lot of problems in central NC.

IMG_5412.gif

That had 2” of precip that gave 2” of snow and 0.5” ice accumulation. If you go off the AI models Raleigh will easily be below 1” QPF and closer to 0.5”. If they are right…big IF then this won’t be as big a deal…for Raleigh. People north and west are in much worse shape.

IMG_5413.jpeg
 
TheWeatherDriver said:
1” vs 0.75” like come on. It’s going to be a big deal anyway for a lot of people. You can downplay it for now but it’s going to be at your doorstep soon. Mooresville is not safe
Click to expand...

I get that, I may legit be ground zero. My wife is pissed bc I told her we’re wasting our time and spending all this money ect. I told her there’s a lot of Fear Mongering going on and we’re 99% Just fine. And I’m sorry I believe that. This is why as much as I love this hobby I’ve always been pro professional Mets only for certain data and models. No subscription no nothing you wouldn’t have access to every piece of data a Met has. To be frank, the public doesn’t need to know what they show bc they don’t know how to decipher it responsibly. Look at Burns in ATL people wanna kill him off bc the guy noticed something he professionally saw and called it, if public didn’t know….. no one would’ve ever found out he had to back track


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
KyloG said:
This is the only ice storm I can remember in my 40+ year lifetime that caused a lot of problems in central NC.

View attachment 187757

That had 2” of precip that gave 2” of snow and 0.5” ice accumulation. If you go off the AI models Raleigh will easily be below 1” QPF and closer to 0.5”. If they are right…big IF then this won’t be as big a deal…for Raleigh. People north and west are in much worse shape.

View attachment 187758
Click to expand...

Was in Kannapolis for that at 11yrs old. No power 11 days


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Heelyes said:
Serious question have you ever been in a .5” ice storm?
Click to expand...
Absolutely I have I use to be an EMT and also worked for State Maintenance years ago, So trust me I've had my share And Really don't care to see any kind of winter storm again period! It amazes me how people wish for all this 💩 Knowing the dangers it can cause and yes that even goes for snow too
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top