Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026

[Mahomeless]

The NAM trends are exactly what you want to see on the globals this evening....its about time to start watching the HRRR and how it is handling the northern stream. I love misery, so I am hanging on to the smallest of hope that this can trend back south in a major way.

 

[jrips27]

NAM is cold

 

[superjames1992]

Looks like the 18z NAM verbatim would start as snow in S VA and IP in much of NC with temps in the low teens in VA and the upper teens / low 20s in NC.

 

[NCwx1992]

Sleet bomb for most of NC on the NAM... at this point, thats what Im realistically rooting for coming to fruition since the Big Snow dreams are mostly shattered now

 

[Tsappfrog20]

Looks like the 18z NAM verbatim would start as snow in S VA and IP in much of NC with temps in the low teens in VA and the upper teens / low 20s in NC.

Correct looks like it would probably start as snow or sleet in Central NC and then transition to freezing rain


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[Cary_Snow95]

 

[NCSNOW]

It was improvement. Check out our sounding here. double dips back behind -10 line last second

 

[superjames1992]

Correct looks like it would probably start as snow or sleet in Central NC and then transition to freezing rain


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Yeah, looking at the maps I think there's a decent shot the first ~0.1" of QPF it shows is snow. 700 mb and 850 mb are below 0C, although I'm not sure if there is a warmer layer in between there (not sure it's worth checking soundings for the 84-hour NAM ). Definitely going to IP and then eventually ZR after that, but it would be so nice to get a little powder before we turn into a sleetbomb.

EDIT: Looking at NCSNOW's sounding above, looks like the warmest layer is around 775 mb, so probably scratch those snow chances.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Y'all didn't think we'd all not get NAMd at some point? Potent wedge deep into the Ga. CAD region, precip looks like it would be much lighter than say the ICON that goes nuclear with 3+ inches.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Big jump east up in Canada. As they say, big if true.

 

[HailCore]

Y'all didn't think we'd all not get NAMd at some point? Potent wedge deep into the Ga. CAD region, precip looks like it would be much lighter than say the ICON that goes nuclear with 3+ inches.
View attachment 187085View attachment 187086

I still think that this solution is a version of NAMming in which the northern regions see more winter weather across a larger shield, and I would be shocked if this verifies without the main precip axis coming south at least 50 miles considering it is 84 hours out on the NAM.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Big jump east up in Canada. As they say, big if true.
View attachment 187087

Evidence why a clean triple phase is so difficult. That’s a mess. Now flatten it out through the next 36hr and we can all enjoy our sleet’nado

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

Big jump east up in Canada. As they say, big if true.
View attachment 187087

Wow, that's what we are needing ... more of that would be nice. Translates to a 1043 high in NY. We are not going to escape this winter storm in our area.

 

[jrips27]

 

[SnowNiner]

Y'all didn't think we'd all not get NAMd at some point? Potent wedge deep into the Ga. CAD region, precip looks like it would be much lighter than say the ICON that goes nuclear with 3+ inches.
View attachment 187085View attachment 187086

Yeah precip looks very light for SE there. That's a new one.

 

[LukeBarrette]

Sleet bomb would be HUGE for almost everyone here! Stay away freezing rain!

 

[tractor girl]

Y'all didn't think we'd all not get NAMd at some point? Potent wedge deep into the Ga. CAD region, precip looks like it would be much lighter than say the ICON that goes nuclear with 3+ inches.
View attachment 187085View attachment 187086

I noticed the lowish PW value in sounding imby at 7pm Saturday

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Yeah precip looks very light for SE there. That's a new one.

Been a thing with the NAM for the last couple years. Sparse with precip

 

[Arcc]

Y'all didn't think we'd all not get NAMd at some point? Potent wedge deep into the Ga. CAD region, precip looks like it would be much lighter than say the ICON that goes nuclear with 3+ inches.
View attachment 187085View attachment 187086

Honestly that could end up much worse and puts a lot more marginal places in the game. Accretion would occur much more readily at 31 degrees with light precip.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

18Z ICON through 33 continuing the trend. NE with the NS wave and SW with our Baja.

 

[TheWeatherDriver]

Looks like we will start off with snow/sleet here in central NC then switch to freezing rain when we get that southerly flow. The CAD strength is going to determine how long the freezing rain sticks around. If the CAD weakens we could transition to rain. If the CAD stays strong, we can switch to snow at the backend of this thing instead of the rainy transition. If I had to place a bet on it, I would say the CAD stays strong, the GFS is a strong signal.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

I noticed the lowish PW value in sounding imby at 7pm Saturday

View attachment 187088

But man, those temps! Whatever does fall will accrete very efficiently.

 

[Chattownsnow]

The NAM looks better in all ways so far. Height field is more suppressed, SW Canada vort is pulled back some, Baja blast more to the south, the hrrr made a similar move as well View attachment 187066

It’s so funny that we are literally almost always rooting for the exact opposite trend to get our storm. Maybe for once this will finally play in our favor

 

[accu35]

Man that’s a big jump south on the 18z Nam with the precip field. Great trend so far

 

[NBAcentel]

Yeah I like that. Hopefully the start of a new trend ?

 

[superjames1992]

The 18z ICON has heights lower ahead and almost looks like it's about to leave that Baja Low completely behind. Also more positively tilted?

 

[mrdaddyman]

 

[Brent]

Good luck guys

 

[Chazwin]

Yeah precip looks very light for SE there. That's a new one.

Well remember that’s at the end of the run, which the NAM runs very dry now

 

[norcarolinian]

Old school winter storm. Been a while. Triad north and west. 2-4” of snow. Then 2-4” of sleet. Capped off with some freezing rain. WSW criteria anyway.

 

[Mahomeless]

I'm not sure people realize just how close we are....2-3 more runs with the same trend, pieces shifting the same way, the same amount......we are back to yesterday morning glory. Big "ifs", but we have seen it happen so many times....just rarely in our favor.

 

[Noles1812]

 

[Chattownsnow]

View attachment 187083

I would think that back piece in Southern California would not be good later on though. Might not matter with the main thumping

 

[packfan98]

Yeah I like that. Hopefully the start of a new trend ? View attachment 187091

Does look to be there on most recent model runs. Doesn't look like on the RGEM. Northern energy has trended west the past two runs.

 

[BHS1975]

Does look to be there on most recent model runs. Doesn't look like on the RGEM. Northern energy has trended west the past two runs.

Need that recon data.

 

[Makeitsnow]

icon is coming in colder again

 

[NBAcentel]

Nevermind. Lol. This is gonna be a WAA nuke aloft

 

[LukeBarrette]

 

[packfan98]

RGEM phasing in the Baja energy at hr 60. Should rise heights in the east and be north.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

ICON has folded with the northern tilt/phase. Poop.