I think they have seen this quite a handful of times and already know the CAD is likely going to be somewhat undermodeled for portions of northern and NE GA. South of ATL is definitely a question mark that could be cold rain with only brief ice, but as it stands now, parts of the immediate metro area and up to the north and east could definitely see some icing here, maybe getting close to Winter Storm criteria depending on how long the cold air hangs on.
As someone who is barely in A, I truly believe A should be farther north by a few counties. Hope I'm wrong! @Ross thoughts?Alan Huffman’s thoughts for now subject to change he says.
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Well to be fair, it's just rough thoughts atm. He will put totals to it after 12z tomorrow...
I think after 1:15am tonight you will be feeling fine with his drawing. Im expecting an adjustment, pushing things back toward yesterday morning on physics modeling. Not all the way, but noticeable. Just my 2 cents.
Very good sign....it won't take much more movement like this to end up back where we were yesterday morning. Remember, VERY subtle changes in this setup can lead to MASSIVE changes downstream.
you can basically think of it like a seesaw
So I’m trying to find somewhere to evacuate to out of catastrophic ice to hopefully snow and or sleet. Is East Tennessee getting the ice storm too??Alan Huffman’s thoughts for now subject to change he says.
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You might want to go to Kentucky.
It’s a benefit, the closer they are, the more intact they will stay and slower the TPV moves east into SE Canada while adding more confluence
I would tend to think its better. Keeping it separate from the Baja Low flattens the heights downstream plus keeps the positive tilt back west and less chance of a phase.
There are many others on here more qualified to answer this question. But probably be less of an ice storm in eastern Tennessee, except NE, Tennessee It will probably be pretty bad. But don't go by my assessment. lol
What about far NE GA - Clarkesville area? I have a hard time seeing how we can stay the same type as 75 miles south of us but everything has shown us getting blasted with ZR to this point
Interesting... Baja Low is dampening out a little bit. May further tend to help with flattening heights downstream
I have a question about this... in this case, the more amped solution should make it warmer, correct? ....My question to help clarify would be to does NAM have an "AMP" bias... or a "COLD" bias?
Generally in CAD setups of this strength we at least get some sort of precip besides freezing rain whether it be snow or sleet. Lived here my whole life, I'm literally a town over from you, sure you probably know.
Oh...I hadn't looked at the RGEM yet. Thanks for pointing that out though.
This isn’t necessarily true at the surface in CAD areas. Because a stronger/more amped trough can increase the confluence over the northeast and lead to a stronger and/or better positioned high pressure for CAD. So you wind up with warmer mid levels, but potentially colder low levels. But it all depends on the details
All because the Montana gyro taking a hike. Thats what we need to root for. it disappearing, getting as far away from baja as possible
In this specific case, that would be my thinking. Usually, the typical amped solutions on the long-range runs of the NAM result in substantially more precipitation over a more expansive field, which is basically the same thing as the storm having more energy to produce this much moisture. Then when it corrects, there is typically a trend further south. I do think the model has a cold bias, but in terms of these larger systems, a typical NAMming would bring the storm further inland and much larger, therefore increasing temps further south. The last storm was a good example as the precip shield started off way too far northwest of where it actually ended up being, but I also think 1/10/25 was another good example as early runs of the NAM wanted places like the I-20 corridor to see mainly freezing rain with the snow confined to the north, and as the event grew nearer, it adjusted to what the other short range (like the HRRR) were showing with a front end thumping of heavy snow, and that did end up verifying across the region when just days in advance, the NAM would have brought that precip band 50-100 miles north in TN and would have only resulted in freezing rain/rain further south.
