Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026

[Xlhunter3]

That will help. 1043mb sfc high

 

[Ross]

It’s fair to bet on a warmer solution, but the arctic high should slow the Baja down right? I know it likes to be slow anyways, so shouldn’t this be two ways the warmer solution doesn’t work out?

it's a strong high. no doubt about it. but i think everyone is wrongly assuming that it has birthright to park itself over the great lakes. a lot of the suppression takes are based on "if all the synoptic features stay the exact same, and the high stays in the same exact area, it will shunt the storm more southward than currently modeled". This i agree with... mildly. but if you shove all of these synoptic players north 50 miles, you are also shoving the high north 50 miles as well. i think a mistake people are making is treating the high pressure like this rogue beast that does not play ball with our preconception of the atmosphere. to me that is not true... at least in terms of the synoptics. may be only an oblique answer to your q but its been a theme of this storm cycle that has grinded my gears some

 

[egg]

Although that little kicker out of the NW is growing more prominent

kinda ticked back ne a hair but that’s being generous lol

 

[NBAcentel]

GFS is colder initially aloft for wedge areas thanks to a slightly stronger/further SW SE Canada vortex, but the 2nd half of the event is probably warmer aloft then last run

 

[iGRXY]

GFS won’t be less on QPF. The slower ULL interaction delayed the precip some but you can see at 96 it’s really getting going out west

 

[Parker]

Birmingham area folks need to hope that warm nose is indeed real on all the models to avoid a disaster but it still is a bit of a problematic storm for sure on this run before flipping to a cold rain for a bit.

 

[blueheronNC]

Less precip overall this run through Saturday night

Worth it to reduce QPF thanks to less Baja amping. I'll take that tradeoff.

 

[Tsappfrog20]

Can you verify that!?!?

Not sure if this is actually verified or not but it’s what I found.




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[jrips27]

GFS not flinching on a major impactful winter storm for many. Move the chains

 

[Stormsfury]

That will help. 1043mb sfc highView attachment 186700

That I believe has been the strongest high over NY so far...

 

[Makeitsnow]

That will help. 1043mb sfc highView attachment 186700

Folks cliff diving down here in ga do not know cad very well. That is as text book as you can get to deliver max cad.

 

[Bready86]

Good gracious look at the surface temps

 

[rhart]

Birmingham area folks need to hope that warm nose is indeed real on all the models to avoid a disaster but it still is a bit of a problematic storm for sure on this run before flipping to a cold rain for a bit.

Doesn’t it go back to ZR after flipping to rain?

 

[Ksnow33]

Worth it to reduce QPF thanks to less Baja amping. I'll take that tradeoff.

Like others said it was delayed a bit compared to other runs

 

[accu35]

backside looking good. That’s the one I’m watching

 

[Arcc]

Continues to Amp from 18z.

 

[blueheronNC]

Second half of the storm (Sunday) ends up warmer aloft but colder at the surface. Massive sleet bomb.

 

[Makeitsnow]

 

[WeatherGirl205]

I’ve heard 2 chief meteorologists in Bham say tonight that they’re not convinced that warm nose is going to come to fruition, but it’ll be interesting to watch!

 

[J.C.]

Just saw a local met on FB say he thinks the GFS does because it actually picked up the previous snow well before the euro.

This is actually a valid point.

Increase in IP across all areas from 18z.

 

[LovingGulfLows]

Good gracious look at the surface tempsView attachment 186701
View attachment 186702

Kind of crazy to see nearly the entire state of SC and close to two-thirds of GA covered in sleet. Wouldn't mind seeing this solution play out and get my 4-6 inches of sleet. Looks like my backyard only had full blown ice for a few hours before the flip to sleet.

 

[tempo47]

Feels like were just going back to square one from the past 3 days to me but i also have no clue i just look at the maps

 

[NBAcentel]

Thundersleet potential with this one. Wouldn’t shock me if we get some elevated instability over top the wedge dome

 

[TheBatman]

That will help. 1043mb sfc highView attachment 186700

That should help keep that low south and keep it a miller A.

 

[JP152]

Its a monster.

 

[TheBatman]

This is actually a valid point.

Increase in IP across all areas from 18z.

View attachment 186706

You got the IP from the 18z run?

 

[beanskip]

Crazy QPF numbers -- a full inch higher for most of the swath of highest precip. The snowi-ness of this storm may have changed, but I'm not sure the severity has.

 

[Makeitsnow]

well over 2.50 inches of freezing rain in ne alabama. brutal.

 

[NBAcentel]

Absolute sleet bomb, I’ll gladly take

 

[Ross]

I’ve heard 2 chief meteorologists in Bham say tonight that they’re not convinced that warm nose is going to come to fruition, but it’ll be interesting to watch!

pretty bold strategy for professional meteorologists on live television to say this. we'll see if it pays off for em

 

[TheWeatherDriver]

If Brad says it we ball

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

prob won’t be a lot of knee jerk cold rain updates after that banger

Ice pellets are welcome here

 

[iGRXY]

6” of snow and then 5-6” of sleet on top of it imby

 

[NCSNOW]

By hour 108 triad has, 14 accum on kuchera. Sleet gets in way from this point on for my area, but state line, sw va up to 16 an climbing.

Big Frosty sitting at 17, 1st place

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Both the ICON and GFS are printing out ridiculous amounts of precipitation. The kind of thing we oggle over on an 300 hour ensemble panel.

 

[malak05]

6” of snow and then 5-6” of sleet on top of it

Better then my 4 inches of sleet and 1.25 frz rain lol

 

[jrips27]

GFS won't back off the ridiculous cold after the event

 

[Ksnow33]

Canadian is as amped as ever

 

[blueheronNC]

 

[JP152]

By hour 108 triad has, 14 accum on kuchera. Sleet gets in way from this point on for my area, but state line, sw va up to 16 an climbing.

Big Frosty sitting at 17, 1st place

Yep. 17 up to Northern Virginia. 23 in Roanoke.