Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026

[Packsox03]

It's still very early to be parsing details like this but this is the warmest sounding from GFS. Warm nose is only about 2C and is shallow. After this, upstairs temperatures crash as the coastal takes over and flips us back to all snow for about 10 hours or so after a 20 hour window at the front end for snow. Crazy stuff.

For reference, down here, our typical snow events really only have a 10 hour window or less with full saturation and temps cod enough for snow.

 

[ForsythSnow]

I think still to wait for the low to actually be in position and get flight sampling. Too early to tell anything specific.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

that's mostly all of it for us. It only gets deeper in VA.

My assumption is the snow maps are done mostly by that point for NC. And this time period is the main start for the mixed bag.. sleet and/zr. Looking at the precip maps you can see significantly more falls after 12z into 00z Monday. So verbatim the GEFS is implying that snow mean plus all of that sleet/zron top.

 

[wow]

AIFS .. back to where we were this time yesterday

 

[jackendrickwx]

Euro probably going to amp/north some as well here with more Baja interaction

 

[chase223322]

Then the airmass that comes next is EXTREMELY cold. -12F in Huntsville.. 2F in Atlanta.

This is a recipe for disaster if we have severe ice knocking out power before this dangerous cold.

View attachment 186540

What is the explanation fir that crazy little nub of warm temps reaching up int NE Ga? I feel personally attacked lol. Ive seen it on several models

 

[Cary_Snow95]

This is increasingly reminding me of the Feb 2015 system. Extremely cold and VA got a foot. In Wake we had about 3-4" of sleet

 

[Triplephase93]

MRX

 

[CaryWx]

View attachment 186559

It's still very early to be parsing details like this but this is the warmest sounding from GFS. Warm nose is only about 2C and is shallow. After this, upstairs temperatures crash as the coastal takes over and flips us back to all snow for about 10 hours or so after a 20 hour window at the front end for snow. Crazy stuff.

For reference, down here, our typical snow events really only have a 10 hour window or less with full saturation and temps cod enough for snow.

Thanks Packsox. Would like o keep this in mind and see how the 18z euro does with it at warmest point.

 

[Stormlover]

 

[MichaelJ]

I agree this is not settled yet, especially the p-type and QPF. I will say whoever is just north of the transition zone from IP to SN is going to get buried

 

[jrips27]

Definitely looks like the Euro will tick north here and be a bit quicker with precip

 

[Oconeexman]

I went through my soundings and again, the pretty maps show sleet, the sounding is snow until Sunday morning at 1 am.

Would you check mine and see if im right...looks about v the same here in Oconee for most of the duration and Pickens county as well.

 

[KyloG]

And so it begins…ugghh

 

[jrips27]

oh

 

[jackendrickwx]

oh View attachment 186575

That'll do it:

 

[Ethan80963]

Do we know when the Baja wave will be sampled? Also are we expecting the northern stream to get sampled or is that info already being put in to the models?

 

[MichaelJ]

Bastardi says snow field will come North

 

[Stormdoc]

Bastardi says snow field will come North

Of course he does. Of course, that is usually a safe bet. One model run, though, does not make a trend

 

[jrips27]

Much warmer at the surface. Wow.

 

[bouncycorn]

this thing gonna keep trending north/warmer?

 

[LittleMountain]

Why so much warmer at the surface? What happened to the confidence with the cold air being locked in? Webb - Anything thoughts?

 

[Snowfan]

Why so much warmer at the surface? What happened to the confidence with the cold air being locked in? Webb - Anything thoughts?

N/s Shortwave coming in the West pumping heights.

 

[jackendrickwx]

Last couple runs bringing sfc pressures north:

 

[hky1894]

This is a devastating ice storm on the euro wow

 

[MichaelJ]

this thing gonna keep trending north/warmer?

Unfortunately it looks like it. Whole state of NC is now ice. Cad inching northward

 

[saielA10462]

Surely this we got these trends and didn’t get whiffed in the SE by a system that had similar cold pressing it last year? Lmao we suck. Now we wanna eject baja and amp a storm for it to be slop.

 

[SnowmasterATL]

Much warmer at the surface. Wow.View attachment 186577

Dang near also took Atlanta out of the FRZ game. I am so borderline between the cold rain and Freezing rain.. A extra nod towards the 12z UKmet.

 

[jackendrickwx]

Going to be one of the more ludicrous medium range EC ice maps ever:

 

[bouncycorn]

Dang near also took Atlanta out of the FRZ game. I am so borderline between the cold rain and Freezing rain.. A extra nod towards the 12z UKmet.

Yeah starting to think that this may be yet another 'cry wolf' scenario for Atlanta. As if the public doesn't distrust us enough already...

 

[LittleMountain]

If this ends up being mostly ice/not snow across NC, it will be a huge miss. We've been talking about the confidence in the high pressure/cold for days. Mid-Atlantic forums about to start the ridicule of us

 

[Not the mama]

So no snow for even the mountains in NC now?

 

[JoshuaMurrayWX]

Clearly something was injected into the 18z runs to make them all adjust north and warmer or so it would seem.

 

[WxDawgWx]

Almost a 30 degree difference in Sav temps Sunday between the 12z and 18z, wow

 

[dsaur]

A Tony special! @dsaur
GFS keeps showing a lot of sleet keeping ZR reduced vs the devastating Euro runs showing mainly ZR. Hoping sleet will save the day! This looks like 2/1979 sleet and very cold wise (low 20S) along with ZR. My gut feel is to favor the colder atmosphere of GFS/more sleet and less ZR. Crossing fingers:
View attachment 186542

If the sleet happens, then zr and snow will happen too. I'm happy with a mix, but the 2 inches of zr on clown maps had me getting the generator out, and buying 15 gals of gas. I have lp gas space heaters for when the power is out and the central heat is gone. I'll fill up the tub for some extra water, in case the generator can't bump the well pump on. Plan for the worst, and expect the best But this is good news, Larry. Thanks for that. But, but...I want the 5 inches of sleet the clownies were showing before! The seal it with a quarter inch of zr, and top it with 3 inches of snow, and I'm good. 8 inches of paradise. Hope you get some snow out of this!

 

[bouncycorn]

Clearly something was injected into the 18z runs to make them all adjust north and warmer or so it would seem.

Other than the 12z GFS, it has been a trend all day across models.

 

[KyloG]

Hopefully the high pressure weakens further and we warm into the 30’s, it’s close…would be better than a terrible ice storm.

And would be hilarious if we spent all this time tracking another cold rain

 

[LukeBarrette]

I'm sorry this just can't happen. No way they phase three pieces of energy together

 

[Stormdoc]

Last couple runs bringing sfc pressures north:

View attachment 186579

I’m sorry if I’m accused of being a weenie but the 18 Z run still has a 1041 High in Pennsylvania, and we don’t snow? Still hard to fathom. One positive of it amping, however, is related to my other post, in that the low can now bomb at the end and bring a deformation band for east of the Apps.

 

[KyloG]

Could end up being our blessing…I want power, football on Sunday