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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026

Too early to make hard and fast predictions for ANYONE as the players are not all on the field yet. That said, I have a hunch this will not go much more South and may actually come North/West some until go time. How much will be critical for p-types in all areas except the mountains, and the two things to keep your eagle eyes on are 1. What does the Baja low do, come east with the system or lag behind to the west. 2. How strong will the parent High pressure be and where does it settle at at onset of precip. The High strength is over modeled by quite a bit IMO and will end up between 1035-38 (as this happens quite frequently from my experience).

^^^ As I mentioned yesterday, the two things to look for were the strength of the High and the amount of involvement of the Baja low. I just did not think the 1045-50 High would not decrease sharply and the Baja low would cause warming issues if it amps up the system too much. Looks to me the High was modeled too high (thus cold press CAD not as stout) and the Baja low would get involved. Sure it could change but the best models are now showing that and while it will be a notable wintry event, it will not be historic IMO. Hopefully areas in Ga, SC will have temps that cut down on the ZR. Best policy is to keep abreast of the developing system and be prepared
 
MichaelJ said:
Too early to make hard and fast predictions for ANYONE as the players are not all on the field yet. That said, I have a hunch this will not go much more South and may actually come North/West some until go time. How much will be critical for p-types in all areas except the mountains, and the two things to keep your eagle eyes on are 1. What does the Baja low do, come east with the system or lag behind to the west. 2. How strong will the parent High pressure be and where does it settle at at onset of precip. The High strength is over modeled by quite a bit IMO and will end up between 1035-38 (as this happens quite frequently from my experience).

^^^ As I mentioned yesterday, the two things to look for were the strength of the High and the amount of involvement of the Baja low. I just did not think the 1045-50 High would not decrease sharply and the Baja low would cause warming issues if it amps up the system too much. Looks to me the High was modeled too high (thus cold press CAD not as stout) and the Baja low would get involved. Sure it could change but the best models are now showing that and while it will be a notable wintry event, it will not be historic IMO. Hopefully areas in Ga, SC will have temps that cut down on the ZR. Best policy is to keep abreast of the developing system and be prepared
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Except a lot of models are still forecasting a >1050 HP. The main difference now is the northern stream phasing with the Baja low energy causing heights to increase
 
MichaelJ said:
Too early to make hard and fast predictions for ANYONE as the players are not all on the field yet. That said, I have a hunch this will not go much more South and may actually come North/West some until go time. How much will be critical for p-types in all areas except the mountains, and the two things to keep your eagle eyes on are 1. What does the Baja low do, come east with the system or lag behind to the west. 2. How strong will the parent High pressure be and where does it settle at at onset of precip. The High strength is over modeled by quite a bit IMO and will end up between 1035-38 (as this happens quite frequently from my experience).

^^^ As I mentioned yesterday, the two things to look for were the strength of the High and the amount of involvement of the Baja low. I just did not think the 1045-50 High would not decrease sharply and the Baja low would cause warming issues if it amps up the system too much. Looks to me the High was modeled too high (thus cold press CAD not as stout) and the Baja low would get involved. Sure it could change but the best models are now showing that and while it will be a notable wintry event, it will not be historic IMO. Hopefully areas in Ga, SC will have temps that cut down on the ZR. Best policy is to keep abreast of the developing system and be prepared
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Good post, very well articulated. What models have trended to a weaker high?
 
NCHighCountryWX said:
All members of the forum are automatically registered 😊
This is a real post from NWS GSP

View attachment 186474
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To be fair, there is probably a lot of anxiety surrounding big weather events since Helene. Especially in WNC.

Ice scares the 💩 out of me because there are still trees falling that were damaged during Helene that are only now coming down. Had a huge oak fall on my property just a couple months ago that split in half just 4 feet up from the base.
 
NBAcentel said:
If I was to make a map right now, this is what I would go with as of now. Pretty much blending everything together and climo. Just a more for fun type of map though View attachment 186478
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Good map. The only thing I would change is making that orange area wider by about 50 miles further south.
 
Ksnow33 said:
That reminds me of the appetizer in February 2014 before the main snow. Just further north View attachment 186471
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Yeah these little weak waves with weak warm advection that get out in front of the main event can be pretty sneaky. I wouldn’t totally discount them either
 
jackendrickwx said:
For some reason NC just got long range NAM'd on Friday lol. What an idiot. I would ignore this for now
View attachment 186465
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Yeah, a precursor of what's to come. IF this comes to fruition, I wonder how many people are going to think, "this is what all the talk has been about...really?!?!?" These little waves can be tricky to forecast, and with cold air pressing in, I wouldn't rule anything out, just yet.
 
WxGSO said:
Yeah, a precursor of what's to come. IF this comes to fruition, I wonder how many people are going to think, "this is what all the talk has been about...really?!?!?" These little waves can be tricky to forecast, and with cold air pressing in, I wouldn't rule anything out, just yet.
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Oh yeah, not ruling it out. Just glancing at it, going “ha, alright”, and moving on.
 
packfan98 said:
Looks good. Here's the latest National Blend of models:
1769493600-oapHLOjEG44.png

1769493600-Z14jG7Uyui4.png
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Kinda hard to believe in that small amount of ZR with the lack of snow in areas. Is it not counting sleet?
 
The 18z ICON has the high pressure at 1052mb as it’s dropping in from Canada. It’s weakened to 1041 over ne Ohio. I really think it’s time to give credence to the strength of high pressure we might be dealing with. I know I’ve seen some mets just assume it’s modeled way to strong, but all models are being consistent about it
 
LittleMountain said:
The Mid-Atlantic crew are celebrating like crazy on Twitter trying to dunk on southern mets/commentators. But, don't think we're done with slight shifts N/S
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I don't blame them...the DC crew really lagging. Richmond already at it's season average and about to get another 15-18" this weekend. It will be 300-400% of average....it's just a central VA year and I can feel the NoVA folks pain.

@Ross needs to buy a lottery ticket stat!

nohrsc-all-east-nohrsc_season_total-8910400.png
 
WxDawgWx said:
ICON-EPS shifted south a tad it seems
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Looking at the temp 10th-90th percentile spread on Pivotal for the Icon-EPS 18z, I can see some upper end temps on Saturday and Sunday in the 50's (even a 62) and 40's for just south of Atlanta. No idea how many iterations of these temps occur, but there is still a decent chance of nothing but rain for Atlanta at this range, I think.
 
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