Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026

[jackendrickwx]

We need to figure this moment out:





Just given our tendency over the past few winters I wouldn't be shocked if we hold that Baja back more on modeling today

 

[beanskip]

12z GFS a fair amount drier (lol, relatively speaking!) vs. the 0z run. And more south.

 

[wow]

Still all about how much baja blast we drink up

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Fellas, we may just be getting started!

 

[MSnowAtl]

View attachment 186299
this honestly feels like near best case scenario re: southern track of snow + sleet and a thinner band of ZR than most any other model runs today

I want to believe in you GFS! I truly do! I remember Storm Fury in a couple of post saying there will be more separation of the Baja low since the low ove the Great Lakes vanished

 

[rburrel2]

I’m gonna have a stroke. The gfs has 24 straight hours of snowfall in the upstate and we’re not even close to done yet.

 

[Goose88]

Honestly, the sheer amount of precip may save us in Central AL.

By that would it be heavy enough for snow instead?

 

[jeremyt]

By comparison.

 

[Mitch West]

nice shift back South with snow.

 

[Makeitsnow]

still a long band of precip sunday afternoon

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

By that would it be heavy enough for snow instead?

Probably more a the precip is so heavy that there wouldn't be as severe impacts from freezing rain deal.

 

[jackendrickwx]

This is probably going to be the single greatest inside D7 snowfall model run I have ever seen for my current location!

 

[weather bubba]

The latest GFS run was much better for most of us and a relief after seeing the ICON which ran just before it did. I know people like to rag the GFS but if it is ever going to be right again, now is the time.

 

[broken025]

Still going here

 

[Makeitsnow]

round 2?

 

[Makeitsnow]

 

[wow]

A nice slow sip of the Baja ...

 

[jackendrickwx]

This is going to try and snow for well over 48 hours for many locations. Obscene and likely wrong. Insane to see on such short range

 

[iGRXY]

2nd round coming through. Close to a 4 day event

 

[Makeitsnow]

LOL

 

[broken025]

Oh my God this may be the biggest run ever. Almost 2 feet have already fallen in Charlotte here.

 

[GMengel]

Early look best guess at dominant precip type.

 

[iGRXY]

All snow and nearly 2 feet

 

[Ross]

GEFS so far backing up more separation with the baja low through hour 48

 

[MSnowAtl]

round 2?
View attachment 186314

Question, why is there more freezing rain to over Atlanta ans snow over northern GA. I would think that would translate to more sleet for the metro. That is a strong cut off for round 2.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Now way this happens...right?

 

[Makeitsnow]

View attachment 186324

 

[Ross]

early canadian returns- big south shift. silly model

 

[packfan98]

Looks like the GFS does a much better job trying to pick up the sleet than the Euro does.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

We need to figure this moment out:

View attachment 186301
View attachment 186302
View attachment 186303

Just given our tendency over the past few winters I wouldn't be shocked if we hold that Baja back more on modeling today

What’s weird is usually the euro is the one that holds those back longer than others

 

[Storm5]

That was a crazy gfs run . A slower kicking baja wave is what we want for a 2-3 day storm

 

[Tsappfrog20]

Huge shift South on Canadian


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Makeitsnow]

That was a crazy gfs run . A slower kicking baja wave is what we want for a 2-3 day storm

Every time i think we have seen peaked craziness the models raise the bar. No matter the specifics of precip type we will see a situation where travel will be impossible for days.

 

[rusrius]

nice shift back South with snow.View attachment 186309

Mitch, even the sleet would be more welcome than the ice we were seeing around here earlier. Liking the trends.

 

[broken025]

Second round stays south and gets Florida and the Carolina beaches in on it. Wild run.

 

[Ross]

personally, i do not buy the gfs solution. and that is not because it gives me less snow, which to be clear, it does big time. my take is that i do not think the "long fetch/conveyor belt" solutions pan out very often. typically models will settle on a shortwave or a different feature that eventually becomes dominant over the course of an event. given this event is just throwing a subtropical jet against a broad imposing mega cold trough, i guess it could happen, but i favor models settling on a more defined storm eventually

 

[RBR71]

What’s weird is usually the euro is the one that holds those back longer than others

I may be mistaken but I feel that is an old bias of the Euro. All of these models have had upgrades in recent yrs, not even sure if we truly have a handle on all the old, well known biases.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

CMC still with the big amp. I'll feel better when this hopefully horrid model folds fully.

 

[Makeitsnow]

Snow falling with temps in the teens in the upstate...and a sweltering 20 to 22 in north ga.

 

[WxDawgWx]

Second round stays south and gets Florida and the Carolina beaches in on it. Wild run.View attachment 186331

Low chance, but this would be somehow wilder than the 3.5 inches we got last year lol.