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Misc General Banter Thread

SD said:
I have 0 positive feelings about this one based on the last 18 hours. Icon at 18z was the right trend not just about everything else that's happened since. The setup is quite ripe for boiling mid levels, nw trend and hurt feelings. Hope I'm wrong but ill be on the sideline for a few days unless something changes. One day folks will realize at most of our latitudes phasing and amplification aren't our friends unless you really think that unicorns like Jan 00 and 93 are realistic options
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I agree, this can still trend to cold rain, we have seen countless times. We can easily have our hearts broken. This thing can absolutely become a cutter or amp up and bring in to much WAA and we end up with rain. Honestly, with the ice potential maybe that would not be a bad thing.
 
TigerSnow said:
I agree, this can still trend to cold rain, we have seen countless times. We can easily have our hearts broken. This thing can absolutely become a cutter or amp up and bring in to much WAA and we end up with rain. Honestly, with the ice potential maybe that would not be a bad thing.
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I don’t think there’s much chance at all for this trending to a cold rain for the favored CAD areas (interior Carolinas, NE Georgia), given the consensus on all the modeling. However, I do think a lot more could be dealing with freezing rain or sleet than what is being depicted right now. It’s gonna be an historic event for a lot of us anyway you slice it, just maybe not in the way most of us want.
 
It's amazing how many people still haven't got a clue that we may be on the precipice of a major winter storm this weekend. I called my wife before class started at the school she teaches at. I ended up spending more time explaining what was going to happen this weekend as far as potential effects from this winter storm to her coworkers on speaker phone than I did talking to her. I told them not to expect classes will resume any time soon after Friday.
 
CltNative90 said:
I don’t think there’s much chance at all for this trending to a cold rain for the favored CAD areas (interior Carolinas, NE Georgia), given the consensus on all the modeling. However, I do think a lot more could be dealing with freezing rain or sleet than what is being depicted right now. It’s gonna be an historic event for a lot of us anyway you slice it, just maybe not in the way most of us want.
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Very rare in our area(charlotte and surrounding) that we have a storm that does not contain all precip types, also rare that we don't cut totals by a lot. I just don't buy what the models are spitting out. Often times the CAD can not be as intense as well.
 
TigerSnow said:
Very rare in our area(charlotte and surrounding) that we have a storm that does not contain all precip types, also rare that we don't cut totals by a lot. I just don't buy what the models are spitting out. Often times the CAD can not be as intense as well.
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if anything modeling underestimates the CAD.
 
Ward Cleaver said:
I mentioned that we’re in Grenada this week and returning home this weekend. (Splendid timing.)

We changed our Saturday flight into CLT from originally arriving at 11:59 PM to now arriving at 7:15 PM. We have to drive up I-85, but—depending on storm timing—it could very well be a mess by early evening. We have no groceries and we have to pick up our dog on the way home. Decisions, decisions.

I’m wondering if we should cut our trip short a day and try to get a flight on Friday.

“Honey, I’ve been checking the weather and I have some bad news.”
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So when do I pull the trigger and move Saturday evening’s flight into CLT to late Friday night? I really don’t want to cut this vacation short and then this storm fizzles out.
 
TigerSnow said:
Could you explain to me how the 925's work or point me to an article where I can read and try to learn some, lol
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Very simplistically -

850mb temp is your temp 5000 feet up ish. That is the quick and dirty way to see if the atmosphere is cold enough for snow.

BUT 925mb, which is like 2500 feet up -- if it is above freezing there, your snowflakes will halfway melt and refreeze near the surface, which means you get sleet.
 
chapelhillwx said:
Very simplistically -

850mb temp is your temp 5000 feet up ish. That is the quick and dirty way to see if the atmosphere is cold enough for snow.

BUT 925mb, which is like 2500 feet up -- if it is above freezing there, your snowflakes will halfway melt and refreeze near the surface, which means you get sleet.
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Thanks!
 
If you are wanting a pure snow event, along I-40 in TN (east of Nashville) is the place to be. It’s far away enough N/NW of the Pacific hose of WAA, but still plenty close enough to capture a lot of moisture. Realistically, 12-14” totals will not be uncommon in that corridor IMO.
 
The GFS is so all over the place here haha... It was lackluster for days then it got way better and matched the Euro and now I don't know what that run was haha
 
For those that have been here for a long time and back to the Americanwx boards etc, how often have you guys seen this type of stuff inside the 4-5 day range? Does this have a legit chance or can we lose it entirely to rain?

I am guessing anything can still happen.
 
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