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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026

tempo47 said:
So near atl these snow maps are kind of decieving in the fact it shows a sharp snow cutoff above us but we are still getting tons of freezing and sleet?
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Yes.

If the Euro hasn’t been acting like drunk uncle for the last several runs, this is a Defcon 1 type ice storm from just south of the fall line in Georgia and up.

Or maybe sleet if you’re further north.
 
I'm feeling more an more confident : Early thoughts are not set in stone. But thanks to the mega qpf 1.5-2.0 The low end for my immediate area up to Gboro is a foot of snow/mixed with some crust. Think if it sleets, I'll get the high ratio sleet 5:1 , perhaps 6:1.
If we stay all snow, we can net 15-18 inches.
Surface Cold as good as you can get , is a lock. Check that one off. I'm watching qpf trends, all indications are we max 1.5+ as of right now. Then biggest hurdle is keeping the sleet away. It is arms reach away every model run, with some kissing us on the cheek. Gonna take a couple days to iron out ptype breakdown. I feel as good this morning we can stay all snow as Ive felt so far, but that can flip at 12z.

The storm that produced the surface conditions most closely to what we will see from this weekend in the Triad , was the Blizzard of 96 when it rolled through here. Had about 10-12 mostly snow, with thick crust of sleet.

Course if we stay all snow, theres several to draw from.

For us it's a definite High Impact winter storm coming. No doubt. It's just a wait an see if we can luck up stay all snow v/s how much sleet gets involved/ how long/ sleet ratio.

Already had to contract out plowing 3 warehouses ( @ powerstroke). Those guys equiptment gonna get put to test pushing this weighty stuff around. They gonna make Bank to.

Folks on GA/AL line area over to western Atlanta. Could be in really Really Big Trouble here.
 
packfan98 said:
6z euro op is coming in colder and snowier for many. Check out the trends over the past 24 hours.
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6z Euro total snow


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NCSNOW said:
I'm feeling more an more confident : Early thoughts are not set in stone. But thanks to the mega qpf 1.5-2.0 The low end for my immediate area up to Gboro is a foot of snow/mixed with some crust. Think if it sleets, I'll get the high ratio sleet 5:1 , perhaps 6:1.
If we stay all snow, we can net 15-18 inches.
Surface Cold as good as you can get , is a lock. Check that one off. I'm watching qpf trends, all indications are we max 1.5+ as of right now. Then biggest hurdle is keeping the sleet away. It is arms reach away every model run, with some kissing us on the cheek. Gonna take a couple days to iron out ptype breakdown. I feel as good this morning we can stay all snow as Ive felt so far, but that can flip at 12z.

The storm that produced the surface conditions most closely to what we will see from this weekend in the Triad , was the Blizzard of 96 when it rolled through here. Had about 10-12 mostly snow, with thick crust of sleet.

Course if we stay all snow, theres several to draw from.

For us it's a definite High Impact winter storm coming. No doubt. It's just a wait an see if we can luck up stay all snow v/s how much sleet gets involved/ how long/ sleet ratio.

Already had to contract out plowing ( @ powerstroke). Those guys equiptment gonna get put to test pushing this weighty stuff around. They gonna make Bank to.

Folks on GA/AL line area over to western Atlanta. Could be in really Really Big Trouble here.
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Is there a ratio difference with sleet? I thought it was set at like 3:1
 
Really hope that snow footprint can continue to trend or even expand south more today. I don’t ever let weather scare me but some of these freezing rain totals that keep showing up have me puckering. My goodness at this storm.

Ice storms never verify here, so it will catch a lot off guard if it does. It’s been years
 
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These accumulation maps are jaw dropping. To think these precipitation totals come from one winter storm is almost inconceivable. This will be a winter storm that will go into the history books and may be the standard that all future winter storms in the Southeast are measured by.
 

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BullCityWx said:
My best advice as far as being an information science professional is to start archiving all these images because this event could become the benchmark for all storms going forward.
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packfan98 said:
6z euro ai ensembles just seemed to expand everything north and south. Need to dig into the details.
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How many members are on the euroai ensembles? Also, did the arrival time in NC slow down overnight or am I looking at something wrong?
 
Overnight into the morning, there was a significant slowing trend on the models.

While the Arctic HP has trended stronger, the Baja low has also trended towards a phase, slowing down the system. This phase combined with the increased slowness will contribute to a more widespread winter storm for the East Coast, as the slower moving system allows for that same front-end thump in the Carolinas while eventually climbing north to the DMV as the high to the Northeast erodes.
 
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Just purely going off my experience with strong CAD in Northeast Georgia I think it is entirely possible we might be saved by more snow/sleet than freezing rain. Maybe I’m wishcasting but that’s usually how it plays out where we sit in a strong wedge.


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Window to move this around majorly is closing. Next 4-6 cycles will probably tell the tale on if that happens. Then you really start to work on nailing down ptype corridors as NWS puts out watches. Today feels like a pivotal day to me, we either keep trucking with the fairly remarkable consensus we have right now or start moving somewhere else. We all know it is very very unlikely we have the solution right now.
 
Webber mentioned something yesterday about a snow growth zone pretty far down the column. Is this a possibility with this wedge or once you lose it in the upper parts of the atmosphere it’s just over? Probably a really dumb question but he got me thinking and I’m gonna put it out there anyway
 
jackendrickwx said:
Window to move this around majorly is closing. Next 4-6 cycles will probably tell the tale on if that happens. Then you really start to work on nailing down ptype corridors as NWS puts out watches. Today feels like a pivotal day to me, we either keep trucking with the fairly remarkable consensus we have right now or start moving somewhere else. We all know it is very very unlikely we have the solution right now.
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We’ve been slowly and steadily marching to a more oppressive and penetrating high pressure/cold press for 3 days now across all the models in a general sense. And the timing on that cold press is now inside day 4.

I’ll be shocked if we are done with that, and even more shocked to see it tick back the other way.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Webber mentioned something yesterday about a snow growth zone pretty far down the column. Is this a possibility with this wedge or once you lose it in the upper parts of the atmosphere it’s just over? Probably a really dumb question but he got me thinking and I’m gonna put it out there anyway
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From what I’ve read this morning… don’t expect fluffy dendrites with a +1c 700mb layer, lol.

But there are multiple reasons ratios will be better than your standard bb type sleet pellet storm.

1. Partially melted and refrozen flakes will accumulate better than sleet, and we’re going to see lots of that across the area in the transition zones

2. There will probably be some of the rapid water drop freezing/busting that Webber described from time to time. And it’ll potentially be cold enough for some snow-like crystallizations to form on those shattered bits before they reach the ground

But I’d love to hear expert opinions on this. I’ve personally never experienced sleet with a -10-12 cold layer so I’m curious to see what that looks like.
 
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To further expand on that thought.

It’s not so much that the warm layer is thin and high up. Let’s say 1c and 1000ft thick.(though that’s a critical part)

But the thing is it is so cold and thick cold below that layer that you’re going to refreeze those slop drops incredibly fast. So I expect a bigger transition area of something between snow and sleet than what is normal, for our area.

We actually saw a good bit of that type stuff in the 2022 storm, with a less impressive cold layer.
 
LukeBarrette said:
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The NAM showing this thing getting going really early Friday.
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I think it’s picking up on the possibility of a little light precip as the Arctic front moves through. I remember February 2014 had that happened and produced some light mixed precip a day before that first wave hit.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Webber mentioned something yesterday about a snow growth zone pretty far down the column. Is this a possibility with this wedge or once you lose it in the upper parts of the atmosphere it’s just over? Probably a really dumb question but he got me thinking and I’m gonna put it out there anyway
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Yeah if your cold nose in the low levels is strong enough the upper dendritic growth layer can seed that (a seeder-feeder type mechanism) and lead to even more snow at the surface

On one of these GFS runs last night, the snow growth zone was over 400mb deep over central NC with the front end thump. Almost half the atmosphere is producing snow 😂

gfs_2026012000_114_35.75--78.5.png
 
Chazwin said:
I think it’s picking up on the possibility of a little light precip as the Arctic front moves through. I remember February 2014 had that happened and produced some light mixed precip a day before that first wave hit.
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A little shortwave embedded in the flow
 
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