Makeitsnow
Member
that's actually a big shift south for the uk from 0z.
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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Keep in mind...this is snow and sleet on SV but gives an idea. This look solid about as good as we can hope for with this setup...
Past 48 hours of runs for GEFS 0z/12z runs
Past 48 hours of runs for GEFS 0z/12z runs
foothillscrewzone
Member
Compare that to last nights UK 
Stormsfury
Member
No, it's a phased bomb that produces a squall line as apparently it completely ejected the Baja feature. Completely out on its own island.
Bigedd09
Member
Stormlover
Member
ukmet 
Bigedd09
Member
pretty run of the mill cycle so far. three straight significant model suites... nice. high confidence of some sort of major winter storm. warm outliers (ukmet, gfsai) moderated southward. conversely, colder models (gfs family) nudged northward. the confidence interval for who could see what shrunk. If the euro family follows, i would expect either a hold serve or a slight nudge colder/south.
looking less likely yall around and south of i40 are staying all snow here
edit- canadian i am treating as persona non grata
looking less likely yall around and south of i40 are staying all snow here
edit- canadian i am treating as persona non grata
Think it's picking up on the CAD better?
Nice trend
An unrealistic QPF bomb like that and it still results in a mid/upper 20’s wedge..yoink
Stormlover
Member
I think so
Stormsfury
Member
Yeah. The confluence in the east is strong with this even with the phased option
NWG_WX14
Member
That GEFS snowfall is insane for 5 days out. 6"+ for nearly all of NC
Something I don't see mentioned much but could add another layer of complexity here -
Look at those projected wind gusts in the Carolinas during the height of the freezing rain!
Look at those projected wind gusts in the Carolinas during the height of the freezing rain!
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
What a gorgeous look for the 85 crowd. Biggest problem is it's the GFS. Yesterday we saw similar looks from Euro and CMC. Need model support since we all know how the GFS can be.
Dunkman
Member
Well that depends on the temps. If it’s 31 it can help, if it’s 21…yikes.
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
Not liking 12z looks so far on any model really. GFS trends have not been great I suspect it'll be north by 18z or 00z. CMC was extremely amped. GEFS has a much more evident signal on the baja low diving with this system.. Not something you like to see at all.
General rule of thumb imo: When texas wins, the rest of the SE doesn't typically win. Take Feb 2021 for example.
Things to keep in mind going forwards.
Ice storm odds are still there. Not a good thing by any means
General rule of thumb imo: When texas wins, the rest of the SE doesn't typically win. Take Feb 2021 for example.
Things to keep in mind going forwards.
Ice storm odds are still there. Not a good thing by any means
It’s just starting to remind me of last January. The SE trend hit accross most modeling during one cycle and it just never stopped. Just never was able to turn the corner due to the anomolous airmass. We were also dealing with a big draping high centered in the middle of the country with key energy situated in the SW. So much time left here
This actually not true, while it may have been the case in recent years, generally if it snows in Dallas it is a good sign for us (nc)
StormSurf
Member
Fountainguy97
Member
I am nearly a perma lurker these days. Dusting off the keyboard to give my 2 cents that no one asked for haha.
The HP (cold) push is not drastically different across the model sets at 12z. And 2-4MB of HP strength isn't going to be life or death with such a cold airmass anyway.
What is the make or break point is how much/little energy is ejected from the Baja energy. GFS/icon at 12z don't fully ingest the Baja energy while CMC and UK do. That's why the gfs is flat. And the others amped.
The good news is that this can go either way. And lower res models/ensembles may struggle to find a good grip on the specific lobes of energy.
I'll be watching that piece like a hawk. The cold is here regardless. It's just going to come down to how much energy are we pumping into the system.
Back to my stalking of all you snow weenies.
The HP (cold) push is not drastically different across the model sets at 12z. And 2-4MB of HP strength isn't going to be life or death with such a cold airmass anyway.
What is the make or break point is how much/little energy is ejected from the Baja energy. GFS/icon at 12z don't fully ingest the Baja energy while CMC and UK do. That's why the gfs is flat. And the others amped.
The good news is that this can go either way. And lower res models/ensembles may struggle to find a good grip on the specific lobes of energy.
I'll be watching that piece like a hawk. The cold is here regardless. It's just going to come down to how much energy are we pumping into the system.
Back to my stalking of all you snow weenies.
Needless to say, somebody on this board will probably get a major ice storm. With the CAD building down, temps will just get colder as the QPF adds up. No "self-limiting" type event. At this point, I would say there's a high probability of a "lights out" situation somewhere.
Edward Nygma
Member
I'm no pro, but I'm shocked at some of the definitives being thrown about this far out by some. About the only definitive I'm confident in myself is that something is going to change. Almost every modeling suite is oscillating with how much of the Baja energy to eject and that is going to be absolutely critical to amounts and precipitation types.
Looking at 500 maps again between the GFS and the CMC to see why the CMC captures the Baja low. The CMC sends strong energy down behind the trough and much further SW, which acts as a kicker to the Baja wave. The GFS sends this Canadian energy down much further east. Just something to watch going forwards
You have a valid point. When I don't want to see it is after we have an accrual of about an inch of freezing rain on the trees.
It really is like a teeter totter. If we want more snow than ice like the GFS, we want more equilibrium between the energy moving west to east across the conus which gives the flat overrunning. The more amped models have this western energy stronger, unbalancing the force and tugging up the SE ridge.I am nearly a perma lurker these days. Dusting off the keyboard to give my 2 cents that no one asked for haha.
The HP (cold) push is not drastically different across the model sets at 12z. And 2-4MB of HP strength isn't going to be life or death with such a cold airmass anyway.
What is the make or break point is how much/little energy is ejected from the Baja energy. GFS/icon at 12z don't fully ingest the Baja energy while CMC and UK do. That's why the gfs is flat. And the others amped.
The good news is that this can go either way. And lower res models/ensembles may struggle to find a good grip on the specific lobes of energy.
I'll be watching that piece like a hawk. The cold is here regardless. It's just going to come down to how much energy are we pumping into the system.
Back to my stalking of all you snow weenies.
View attachment 185667View attachment 185668
ducketta27
Member
Actually, wind with RZ could be bad. Higher potential for freezing on surfaces immediately... and more weight on powerlines and trees as they sway in the wind.
and with the sustained cold for days on end after the storm passes... this could be very dangerous for a lot of folks. hoping NC/SC news starts honking the horn on this potential soon so people have time to prepare.
I feel like the horn is being honked well right now. A lot of people on this early! I’ve heard a lot of chatter about it at work
not picking on you but want to be clear wind during zr is unambiguously bad. outside of the obvious blowing stuff down- wind mixes away any latent heat release on objects, creating more efficient accrual environment
Let the bread and milk runs begin! Seriously though, around the RDU area there are a lot of recent transplants who have never experienced a major winter storm in this area before and have no clue what happens when we get winter weather in these parts. It's good there is already a buzz generating about this upcoming winter weather event.
Stormlover
Member
It's a horrible thing, knocks down branches easier
NBAcentel
Member
AIFS is colder in general, especially at the surface. It’s also starting to knock back the mid level ridging 
wow
Member
slower with the baja low at 72, however
HailCore
Member
Euro AI coming in further south than 06Z, much like AIGFS
BIG adjustment cold on the Euro AI
